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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Cleveland Guardians

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Picks & Predictions

Our model graded 70 markets for New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians and backs Over 8.5 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $258.

MLB
Progressive Field, Cleveland
Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug 2026, 5:11PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 8.5 Total Runs +158

The model graded 70 markets for New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $258 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 6 Aug 2026, 5:11PM at Progressive Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win75.6%
The price says38.8%
Best price+158
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 8.5 High76% chance +158
Total Runs Members only High79% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only High76% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot39% chance Members
Spread Members only Long-shot35% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean53% chance Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 11 props Highup to 93% Members
Batter - Singles × 6 props Highup to 83% Members
Batter - Hits × 2 props Highup to 90% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 7 props Highup to 93% Members
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 2 props Highup to 89% Members
Batter - Walks × 10 props Highup to 94% Members
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop Highup to 84% Members
Batter - RBIs × 3 props Highup to 91% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

New York Mets and Cleveland Guardians last met on Thu 6 Aug 2026: New York Mets won 13-6. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
7.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 62,586+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Jared Young 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut
  • Jonathan Pintaro RPOut
  • Christian Scott SPOut
  • Daniel Duarte RPOut
  • Robert Stock SPOut
  • Jorge Polanco DHOut

Cleveland Guardians

  • Colin Holderman RPOut
  • Rhys Hoskins 1BOut
  • Andrew Walters RPOut

Probable pitcher

Gavin Williams SP
Availability updated Oct 5, 9:00PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Luis Torrens Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
A.J. Ewing Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Singles
Francisco Alvarez NYM Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Marcus Semien TOR Batter - Hits

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCleveland GuardiansNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.2L5 RA4.0Home L53-2vs New York Mets L52-3

Cleveland Guardians moneyline form: last five 3-2, 5.2 runs/gm.

Run LineCleveland Guardians run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF5.2L5 RA4.0Home L53-2vs New York Mets L52-3

Cleveland Guardians spread form: last five 3-2, 5.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cleveland Guardians vs New York MetsNo line posted

Cleveland Guardians total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCleveland Guardians team totalNo line posted
4.2runs we expect
L5 RF5.2L5 RA4.0Home L53-2vs New York Mets L52-3

Cleveland Guardians team total runs form: last five 3-2, 5.2 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians — recent results

Cleveland Guardians have won 3 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5.

Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L0–3CHWHome
L2–3KCAway
W11–5KCAway
W12–9KCAway
W1–0BOSAway
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L4–6WSHAway
W7–1WSHAway
L6–7WSHAway
W7–2TEXAway
L1–3TEXAway

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cleveland Guardians are scoring 4.2 runs per game (3-2) while New York Mets are at 2.0 (2-3); Cleveland Guardians pitchers are allowing 2.2 earned runs per game versus 1.2 for New York Mets.

4.2
Cleveland Guardians runs/G
2.0
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesCleveland GuardiansNew York Mets
Runs / game4.22.0
Hits / game6.42.2
Home runs / game0.40.6
Walks drawn / game3.80.4
Batter K / game3.64.0
Earned runs allowed / game2.21.2
Pitching K / game3.62.0
Walks allowed / game1.61.4
L5 record3-22-3

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Cleveland Guardians won 0, New York Mets won 3.

DateCleveland GuardiansNew York MetsWinner
Aug 6613New York Mets
Aug 556New York Mets
Aug 426New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

11 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Colin Holderman RPOUT
Rhys Hoskins 1BOUT
Andrew Walters RPOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Jared Young 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Jonathan Pintaro RPOUT
Christian Scott SPOUT
Daniel Duarte RPOUT
Robert Stock SPOUT
Jorge Polanco DHOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians — model preview

Our New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians prediction for August 7, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 7, 2026 our model has run New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets: New York Mets +2.5 (-385), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Guardians, or as Guardians vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Thursday 6 August 2026 at Progressive Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians head-to-head record

Final scores · 11 meetings on record
Cleveland Guardians 6–5 across the last 11 meetings · these games average 9.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Thu 6 Aug 2026, New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians: the Mets won 13-6.

DateGameScoreWinner
6 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians6–13New York Mets
5 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians5–6New York Mets
4 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians2–6New York Mets
6 Aug 2025Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets1–4Cleveland Guardians
5 Aug 2025Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets2–3Cleveland Guardians
4 Aug 2025Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets6–7Cleveland Guardians
22 May 2024New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians6–3Cleveland Guardians
21 May 2024New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians7–6Cleveland Guardians
20 May 2024New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians3–1Cleveland Guardians
21 May 2023Cleveland Guardians @ New York Mets2–1New York Mets

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 11 meetings on file.

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