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Model picks & player props
New York Mets
VS
Cleveland Guardians

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 25, 9:15AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Progressive Field, Cleveland
Outdoor
Thu 6 Aug 2026, 5:10PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
80.4%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Cleveland Guardians Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings +520

The model graded 70 markets for New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $620 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 80.4% across 46 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 6 Aug 2026, 5:10PM at Progressive Field.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win40.6%
The price says16.1%
Best price+520
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Cleveland Guardians Lean41% chance +520
Moneyline Lean46% chance
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Lean59% chance
Spread Long-shot11% chance
Moneyline Lean55% chance
Spread Long-shot8% chance
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 12 props Highup to 93%
Batter - Singles × 8 props Highup to 94%
Batter - Hits × 5 props Highup to 91%
Batter - Total Bases × 11 props Highup to 98%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 2 props Highup to 89%
Batter - Walks × 6 props Highup to 94%
Pitcher - Earned Runs × 1 prop Highup to 84%
Batter - RBIs × 2 props Highup to 91%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 8.5 · $100 returned $740

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 905 of 1,834 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 25
Under 5.5
Pittsburgh Pirates @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $310
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
Cleveland Guardians
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Cleveland GuardiansMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
New York MetsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Cleveland GuardiansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Mets

  • Jorge Polanco DHOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Cleveland Guardians

  • Chase DeLauter RFDay-to-day
  • Slade Cecconi SPOut
  • Rhys Hoskins 1BOut
  • Shawn Armstrong RPOut

Probable pitcher

Parker Messick SP
Availability updated Aug 25, 5:22AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 12 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability12 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Luis Torrens Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
A.J. Ewing Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Francisco Lindor NYM Batter - Singles
Francisco Alvarez NYM Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Marcus Semien TOR Batter - Hits

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineCleveland GuardiansNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.8L5 RA1.2Home L51-4vs New York Mets L55-0Free board16-13

Cleveland Guardians moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Run LineCleveland Guardians run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.8L5 RA1.2Home L51-4vs New York Mets L55-0

Cleveland Guardians spread form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Cleveland Guardians vs New York MetsNo line posted

Cleveland Guardians total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsCleveland Guardians team totalNo line posted
2.2runs we expect
L5 RF3.8L5 RA1.2Home L51-4vs New York Mets L55-0

Cleveland Guardians team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.8 runs/gm.

New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians — recent results

Cleveland Guardians have won 5 of their last 5 games; New York Mets have won 2 of their last 5.

Cleveland Guardians — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2LAAAway
W4–3COLAway
W7–2COLAway
W9–1COLAway
W5–2SFHome
New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2CHWAway
W10–5CHWAway
L4–6CHWAway
W4–2SDHome
L2–5SDHome

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Cleveland Guardians are scoring 3.0 runs per game (2-3) while New York Mets are at 1.6 (2-3); Cleveland Guardians pitchers are allowing 2.6 earned runs per game versus 0.8 for New York Mets.

3.0
Cleveland Guardians runs/G
1.6
New York Mets runs/G
Last 5 gamesCleveland GuardiansNew York Mets
Runs / game3.01.6
Hits / game4.82.2
Home runs / game0.40.8
Walks drawn / game3.00.2
Batter K / game3.43.6
Earned runs allowed / game2.60.8
Pitching K / game3.01.4
Walks allowed / game1.41.2
L5 record2-32-3

New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Cleveland Guardians won 0, New York Mets won 3.

DateCleveland GuardiansNew York MetsWinner
Aug 6613New York Mets
Aug 556New York Mets
Aug 426New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

12 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Cleveland Guardians
PlayerStatus
Chase DeLauter RFDAY-TO-DAY
Slade Cecconi SPOUT
Rhys Hoskins 1BOUT
Shawn Armstrong RPOUT
New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Jorge Polanco DHOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Devin Williams RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians — model preview

Our New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians prediction for August 7, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On August 7, 2026 our model has run New York Mets at Cleveland Guardians and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Cleveland Guardians vs New York Mets: New York Mets +2.5 (-385), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
46
Total Picks
80.4%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 11 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 10 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 10.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Over 0.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Over 3.5 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Cleveland Guardians ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Mets vs Guardians, or as Guardians vs Mets. The most recent game between them was Thursday 6 August 2026 at Progressive Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 80.4% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 3 meetings
New York Mets 3–0 across the last 3 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
6 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians6–13New York Mets
5 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians5–6New York Mets
4 Aug 2026New York Mets @ Cleveland Guardians2–6New York Mets
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