Here are our EPL picks for Friday 2 October 2026. Our model likes 9 bets here. The one it likes most is Aston Villa +0.5 Goal Handicap, priced at -208 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Looking for the best Premier League picks for same-game parlays this weekend? Here are the 5 multis our model likes most for the upcoming round, built only from legs where our number beats the price.

Aston Villa vs Brentford: Aston Villa +0.5 Goal Handicap (-208)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Aston Villa prepares to face Brentford, the home side's resilience is hard to overlook. While Villa's recent home form shows a mixed bag, they have an impressive record against Brentford, winning two out of their last five encounters. They’ve averaged two goals at home recently, while Brentford has struggled on the road, managing just one goal in their last five away matches. Brentford's away stats reveal a troubling trend; they’ve conceded an average of 1.8 goals while only managing to score 1 themselves. With Villa's attacking potential, highlighted by nearly ten shots per game at home, they’re poised to capitalize on Brentford’s defensive frailties. Given Aston Villa's slight edge in historical matchups and their ability to perform well at home, betting on them to cover a 0.5 handicap feels like a promising opportunity.

Aston Villa vs Brentford: Aston Villa Moneyline (+160)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Aston Villa prepares to host Brentford, the stage is set for a compelling clash. Despite a mixed home record recently, Villa has shown resilience, especially against Brentford, with two wins in their last five encounters. Their home form, while not perfect, boasts a solid underlying performance with an average of 2 goals scored at home in the last five games. Brentford's struggles on the road have been noticeable, managing just one goal away in their last five outings, and their tendency to concede at least two goals on average makes them vulnerable here. Villa’s attacking stats suggest they may capitalize on this weakness, especially given their healthy shot average at home. With the added motivation of home support, Villa looks poised to secure the win and solidify their standing in the league. This one feels like a home victory waiting to happen.

Hull City vs Everton: Hull City Moneyline (+260)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Hull City prepares to host Everton, there’s a palpable buzz around their recent home form, where they’ve gone 3-2-0 in their last five at the MKM Stadium. They’ve managed to keep opponents to a mere 0.2 goals per game at home, showcasing a solid defensive record. Conversely, Everton has struggled on the road, failing to secure a win in their last five away fixtures, highlighting their vulnerability away from Goodison Park. While both teams have averaged 1.2 goals recently, Hull’s edge lies in their ability to stifle opposition attacks effectively. With Hull’s home advantage, along with their impressive 11.8 total shots average, they seem poised to capitalize on Everton's defensive lapses. Given Hull’s recent upward trajectory and Everton's struggles, betting on Hull City to secure the victory feels not just reasonable, but downright enticing.

Hull City vs Everton: Both Teams To Score: No (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

When Hull City hosts Everton this Sunday, don’t expect a goal fest. Both teams have been struggling to find the net lately. Hull has averaged just 1.0 goal at home while conceding a meager 0.2 in their last five games, with an xG of zero indicating a serious lack of scoring opportunities. Everton, on the other hand, has been equally uninspired on the road, netting only 0.8 goals in their last five away fixtures, and they too have an xG of zero, showcasing their inability to create meaningful chances. With Hull's strong defensive record and Everton's away woes, it’s reasonable to believe that neither side will find the back of the net. Factor in Hull's recent home performances and Everton’s struggles, and betting on "No" for both teams to score seems a savvy move in this matchup.

Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur: Both Teams To Score: No (+156)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Manchester United hosts Tottenham Hotspur, the stage is set for a clash that might not see the net bulge at both ends. United's recent form at home shows a team struggling to find the back of the net, averaging just 1.6 goals in their last five outings and with a modest xG of 0. They’ve netted only 2.6 goals at home recently, but with their defense tightening, they concede just 1.6 on average. On the flip side, Spurs have been woeful away from home, stumbling to an average of only 0.8 goals per game and facing a formidable United defense. Their attacking woes are compounded by an xG of zero in their last five. Given these trends, betting on “No” for both teams to score appears a savvy move, as both sides grapple with scoring difficulties that could keep this match low on fireworks.

Ipswich Town vs Fulham: Fulham Draw No Bet (-110)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Ipswich Town prepares to host Fulham, recent form tells an intriguing story. Ipswich has struggled at home lately, managing only two wins in their last five overall, with an average of just 1.4 goals per game while conceding 2.2. Their xG metrics reflect a team struggling to create clear chances, averaging a dismal 0. On the flip side, Fulham's away struggles have been evident, but their recent matches have shown a glimmer of resilience. Even though they’ve only mustered one goal in their last five away contests, they’ve had a higher average of shots (14.4) compared to Ipswich, suggesting they’re more likely to convert opportunities. With Ipswich unable to find a rhythm against Fulham in their last encounters, backing Fulham through the Draw No Bet market feels like a savvy move, especially given that Fulham’s odds reflect their potential to turn things around.

Ipswich Town vs Fulham: Fulham +1.5 Goal Handicap (-769)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Ipswich Town prepares to host Fulham, the form book heavily favors the visitors, making the handicap bet on Fulham at -1.5 an intriguing prospect. Ipswich has struggled recently, managing just two wins in their last five outings, and their home scoring average of 1.8 goals is overshadowed by a concerning 2.2 goals conceded per match. On the flip side, Fulham’s recent away form has been less than stellar, but they’ve faced tough competition, and their xG statistics indicate they’ve been creating opportunities, albeit without finishing them off—averaging 14.4 shots but only 0.2 goals. Given Ipswich's defensive vulnerabilities and Fulham's need to bounce back, they have the firepower to cover the handicap. With their record against Ipswich also favoring Fulham, this matchup could see the visitors secure a decisive victory. Expect Fulham to rise to the occasion and clinch a win by at least two goals.

Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Brighton and Hove Albion +0 Goal Handicap (-149)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Sunderland gears up to host Brighton, the stats paint a compelling picture favoring the visitors. Sunderland's home form has been shaky, with just one win in their last five matches, averaging a paltry 0.6 goals at home while conceding 1.6. Their struggle to convert chances is evident, boasting an xG of zero in their last five outings—hardly a recipe for success. Brighton, on the other hand, has been more consistent, showcasing a stronger attacking presence. They’ve been adept at exploiting defensive weaknesses, and with Sunderland’s recent form, they're likely to capitalize. The Seagulls possess the momentum and the attacking flair to stretch Sunderland's defense, especially given the Black Cats' vulnerability at home. With an implied probability suggesting Brighton's edge, placing a bet on them at a handicap of 0 looks like a savvy move in this matchup.

Sunderland vs Brighton and Hove Albion: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-769)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Sunderland prepares to host Brighton, the under 4.5 goals market looks enticing. The Black Cats have struggled offensively lately, averaging just 1.2 goals per game over their last five, with a dismal xG average of zero—yes, zero. Their attack at home isn’t much better, scoring only 0.6 goals on average, while conceding 1.6. Brighton, on the other hand, has shown resilience, but their recent form also suggests a tight affair. With Sunderland's defense yielding an xG of zero against, it's clear they’re not making opportunities easy for opponents. Add in Sunderland's penchant for low-scoring encounters and the last five games have seen a collective push towards defensive solidity. In this clash, it feels like both teams will be poised to play cautiously, making the under 4.5 goals a compelling pick for Saturday’s showdown.

That is the model's read on today's EPL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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