On Friday 16 October 2026, Arsenal play Everton in the EPL. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is Under 3.5 Total Goals, priced at -250 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Arsenal vs Everton: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-250)
Odds correct at time of publishing As Arsenal prepares to host Everton, the stage is set for a clash that leans towards a low-scoring affair. The Gunners have been solid at home, boasting a record of 5-0-0 in their last five home matches, while conceding a mere 0.4 goals per game. In contrast, Everton’s struggles are evident; they’ve scored just 1 goal on average in their last five away games, alongside an alarming trend of four losses in that stretch. Both teams’ expected goals (xG) statistics support this narrative—Arsenal averages just 1.4 goals per game recently, and Everton's inability to find the back of the net compounds the situation. With Arsenal managing to keep their opponents to an average of just 1 goal, it’s hard to envision this encounter breaching the 3.5 goal mark. A calculated bet on the ‘Under’ seems like a savvy play in this matchup.
That is how our model reads Arsenal v Everton. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.