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Carlton Blues
VS
Collingwood Magpies

Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 2, 12:57PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 9:35AM
20
Game Picks
18
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Collingwood Magpies -7.5 (Spread)
For Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies (AFL), model win probability 64.3%, fair odds 1.56, book price -109, model edge +12.2%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 18 Jul 2026, 9:35AM at MCG.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Collingwood Magpies
-6.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlton BluesHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Blues

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jack Crisp Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brodie Kemp Carlton Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Will Hayward Carlton Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Oliver Hollands Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Buller Collingwood Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Patrick Cripps. Check out AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues stats and odds.</p>

Patrick Cripps (Carlton) Over 23.5 Disposals (-192)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to go big in the disposals department, few names shine as brightly as Patrick Cripps. The Carlton skipper is set to lead the Blues into the Magpies' territory at the MCG, a stage where he thrives. Cripps has been a ball magnet lately, averaging a whopping 29 disposals in his last five away games. His contested possessions prowess (14.2 avg) and ability to cover ground (340.2 metres gained avg) make him a nightmare for opponents. Facing Collingwood, a team he's historically outperformed in disposals, Cripps is poised to command the midfield once again. With a model predicting him to hit 26.9 disposals, well above the 23.5 line, the smart money is on Cripps to feast on the pill and deliver for punters looking for a reliable disposal machine.

Patrick Cripps (Carlton) Over 22.5 Disposals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to impactful midfielders, Patrick Cripps stands out like a beacon of consistency. Heading into a crucial clash against the Collingwood Magpies at the iconic MCG, Cripps is primed to shine. Over his last five away games, the Carlton Blues' talisman has been a possession magnet, averaging a stellar 29 disposals per game. His contested possession prowess, averaging 14.2 per game, combined with a sublime disposal efficiency of 60.7%, sets him apart as a linchpin of the Blues' midfield. Moreover, Cripps has a history of dominance against Collingwood, averaging 22.8 disposals in their recent encounters. With his current form red hot, boasting a seven-game hit streak for away fixtures and an overall hit rate of 8/9, backing Cripps to surpass 22.5 disposals is not just a bet; it's a calculated investment in a player who consistently delivers when it matters most.

Ben Ainsworth (Carlton) Over 16.5 Disposals (-175)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Ben Ainsworth is primed to make a significant impact for the Carlton Blues in their clash against Collingwood Magpies. Over his last five away games, Ainsworth has been a midfield dynamo, averaging 18 disposals per match, well above the set line of 16.5. His ability to find the footy in contested situations, coupled with a solid disposal efficiency of 69.9%, showcases his composure under pressure. With an average of 11 kicks and 7 handballs in away games, Ainsworth is a dual threat in distributing the ball effectively. Against Collingwood in previous encounters, he has elevated his game to average 15.2 disposals. Look for Ainsworth to continue his strong form and surpass the set line, making the 'Over 16.5' disposals bet a compelling choice for this matchup at the MCG.

Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues : Collingwood Magpies -5.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the clash between Collingwood Magpies and Carlton Blues at the iconic MCG, the recent form and scoring trends heavily favor the Magpies. In their last five home games, Collingwood has been dominant, averaging 86.2 points for and conceding only 72.6 points against. Their ability to generate inside 50s at an average of 53.2 per game showcases their attacking prowess, with an average of 28 shots at goal and 12.6 target goals per game, indicating a potent forward line. On the other hand, Carlton has struggled on the road, averaging only 70.8 points against tougher opposition. With Collingwood's strong home performances and Carlton's away woes, backing the Magpies to cover the -5.5 spread looks like a smart play for this Saturday showdown.

Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues : Collingwood Magpies -1.5 spreads_q3 (-110)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When looking at the matchup between the Collingwood Magpies and the Carlton Blues at the iconic MCG, the data paints a clear picture. Over their last five home games, the Magpies have been solid, averaging a margin of 13.6 points and scoring an average of 86.2 points per game. Their ability to generate inside 50s (53.2 on average) and shots at goal (28 on average) showcases their attacking prowess. On the flip side, the Blues have struggled on the road, averaging a margin of 9.6 points and conceding an average of 70.8 points in their last five away games. With the Magpies' strong offensive output and home advantage, backing them at -1.5 in the spreads Q3 market seems like a smart move for footy punters.

Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues : Under 168.5 Total Points (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When Collingwood and Carlton clash at the MCG, expect a defensive showdown. The Magpies, in their last five games, have kept their opponents to an average of just 72.6 points at home, showcasing a solid backline that's tough to crack. On the flip side, Carlton has shown resilience on the road, conceding only 70.8 points per game in their last five away matches. With both teams tightening up defensively, combined with modest scoring averages in recent games, the under 168.5 total points bet looks enticing. Collingwood's average of 86.2 points for and Carlton's 80.4 points scored in their last five games suggest a grind-it-out affair where goals may be hard to come by. Expect a hard-fought, low-scoring battle between these two sides.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
4
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
18 Jul 26 Spread Collingwood Magpies -6.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Spread Collingwood Magpies -5.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Spread Collingwood Magpies -7.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Moneyline Carlton Blues ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 18 July 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 20 game picks and 18 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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