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Model picks & player props
Carlton Blues
VS
Collingwood Magpies

Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 13, 10:30AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 9:35AM
20
Game Picks
16
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Collingwood Magpies -6.5 (Spread)
For Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies (AFL), model win probability 63.2%, fair odds 1.58, book price -111, model edge +10.6%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 18 Jul 2026, 9:35AM at MCG.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
Collingwood Magpies
-6.5
-111
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpread Q4Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpread Q2Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpread Q3Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total Points H1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlton BluesHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points Q3Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H2Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points Q1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points H1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market sharpened toward Carlton Blues on this game.

Line movement

▲ moved toward Carlton Blues
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

Blues

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jack Crisp Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Brodie Kemp Carlton Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Will Hayward Carlton Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Oliver Hollands Carlton Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Buller Collingwood Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
—
Hit Rate
DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 18 July 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 20 game picks and 16 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.