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Model picks & player props
Carlton Blues
VS
Collingwood Magpies

Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 22, 3:11PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
MCG, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul 2026, 9:35AM
20
Game markets graded
18
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Collingwood Magpies -7.5 Spread -109

The model graded 38 markets for Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $192 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 18 Jul 2026, 9:35AM at MCG.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win64.3%
The price says52.1%
Best price-109
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Collingwood Magpies -7.5 High64% chance -109
Spread High63% chance
Spread High62% chance
Spread Q3 Lean56% chance
Spread Q2 Lean56% chance
Moneyline Lean46% chance
Disposals × 11 props Highup to 88%
Goals × 7 props Highup to 96%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Collingwood Magpies -7.5 · $100 returned $192

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Collingwood Magpies
-5.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 18 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 55,404+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpread Q3The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesSpread Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlton BluesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Blues

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jack Crisp Collingwood Disposals
Brodie Kemp Carlton Goals
Will Hayward Carlton Goals
Oliver Hollands Carlton Disposals
Jack Buller Collingwood Goals

+ 18 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies — what the model found

Our model graded 38 betting markets for Carlton Blues at Collingwood Magpies — 20 on the game itself and 18 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
18
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 38 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 37 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies — model preview

Deep dive into Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Patrick Cripps. Check out AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Collingwood Magpies vs Carlton Blues stats and odds.

Patrick Cripps (Carlton) Over 23.5 Disposals (-192)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to go big in the disposals department, few names shine as brightly as Patrick Cripps. The Carlton skipper is set to lead the Blues into the Magpies' territory at the MCG, a stage where he thrives. Cripps has been a ball magnet lately, averaging a whopping 29 disposals in his last five away games. His contested possessions prowess (14.2 avg) and ability to cover ground (340.2 metres gained avg) make him a nightmare for opponents. Facing Collingwood, a team he's historically outperformed in disposals, Cripps is poised to command the midfield once again. With a model predicting him to hit 26.9 disposals, well above the 23.5 line, the smart money is on Cripps to feast on the pill and deliver for punters looking for a reliable disposal machine.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
19
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
18 Jul 26 Moneyline Carlton Blues ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Spread Collingwood Magpies -6.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Points Under 170.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Spread Q2 Collingwood Magpies -1.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Spread Q3 Collingwood Magpies -1.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Spread Q4 Collingwood Magpies -1.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Points Q1 Under 42.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Points Q3 Under 42.5 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Total Points H1 Under 84.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Points H2 Under 84.5 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Team Total Points H1 Under 43.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Total Points Q3 Under 43.5 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Total Points H2 Under 85.5 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Total Points Under 168.5 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Team Total Points Q1 Over 20.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Blues vs Magpies, or as Magpies vs Blues. The most recent game between them was Saturday 18 July 2026 at MCG. The model has generated 20 game picks and 18 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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