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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Hayward is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +11.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 12:12PM UTC
AFL

Will Hayward

Carlton

+11.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -256 (1.39)
+11.5% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
83.4%
Implied Probability
71.9%
Model Edge
+11.5%
Predicted Value
1.3 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals83.4%71.9%1.20+11.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Will Hayward (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Will Hayward's recent form, it's clear he's been a consistent threat in front of goal, averaging 1 goal per game over his last five away matches. With an impressive shot accuracy of 53.3% and an average of 1.8 shots on goal per game, Hayward has been a sharpshooter for the Blues. Moreover, facing St Kilda, he's historically performed even better, averaging 2 goals per game against them in away fixtures. In a game where every snag counts, especially away from home, Hayward's ability to find space inside 50 and convert his opportunities makes him a prime candidate to split the middle and bag at least one goal. With his current hit rate and the statistical edge in his favor, betting on Hayward to score over 0.5 goals could prove a wise move in this clash at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs St Kilda SaintsO 0.5 -256
70%hit L10 O 0.5
0.8avg goals L5
Away1vs St Kilda1.2Season best4
O 0.570%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)7 / 10 hit
0211330201

Will Hayward has gone over 0.5 goals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.8 goals, best 4). Current line: Over 0.5 at -256.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -476 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Will Hayward (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Hayward is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.5% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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