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The latest Bet Better model pick for Will Hayward is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +14.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:46AM UTC
AFL

Will Hayward

Carlton

+14.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -222 (1.45)
+14.5% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
83.4%
Implied Probability
69.0%
Model Edge
+14.5%
Predicted Value
1.3 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals83.4%—69.0%1.20+14.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Will Hayward (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

In this Saturday showdown at the historic MCG, all eyes are on Will Hayward to snag a crucial goal for the Carlton Blues against the Collingwood Magpies. Over his last five away games, Hayward has been a goal-scoring machine, averaging 1.6 goals per game with an impressive 63.3% goal accuracy. His recent form also shows a strong involvement in the Blues' attacking plays, with averages of 3.4 Inside50s and 4.4 score involvements per game. Facing off against Collingwood, Hayward has historically performed well, averaging 0.7 goals in their last five encounters. With an Over 0.5 line and a model prediction of 1.3 goals, Hayward's scoring prowess and consistency make him a solid bet to split the middle and deliver for punters in this crucial clash.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs CollingwoodO 0.5 -222+14.5% edge
60%hit L10 O 0.5
0.8avg goals L5
Away1.6vs Collingwood1.2Season best4
O 0.560%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)7 / 10 hit
0211330201

Will Hayward has gone over 0.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.8 goals, best 4). Current line: Over 0.5 at -222, model edge +14.5%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -213 ✗ MISS
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -435 ✗ MISS
16 Apr 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Will Hayward (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Will Hayward is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.5% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies on Saturday 18 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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