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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Oliver Hollands is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 76%, implied 63%, edge +12.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 8:27PM UTC
AFL

Oliver Hollands

Carlton

+12.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -172 (1.58) · $100→$158
+12.9% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
18.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 76.2% · the book's price implies 63.3% · gap +12.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.2%63.3%1.31+12.9%

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AI Analysis

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Oliver Hollands (Carlton) Over 14.5 Disposals (-172)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the over on disposals, Oliver Hollands from the Carlton Blues is the man to watch in their clash against the Brisbane Lions at Marvel Stadium. Hollands has been a consistent performer at home, averaging 16 disposals in his last five games. Facing the Lions in previous matchups, he has notched up an impressive 21 disposals on average. With his recent form showing a knack for getting his hands on the ball, averaging 10 kicks and 6 handballs in his last five home games, Hollands is a reliable choice to surpass the 14.5 disposals line. Add in his sound disposalefficiency of 76.2% and ability to cover the ground with 248.6 metres gained per game, and it's evident that Hollands is primed to be a key ball-mover for the Blues, making the over a strong play in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 6 of last 10(60%)

Season averages (2024)

Oliver Hollands averaged 14.0 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

14.0
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.8
Marks
3.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Oliver Hollands recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions10045
25 Aug 24St Kilda21065
18 Aug 24West Coast Eagles24047
11 Aug 24Hawthorn22074
3 Aug 24Collingwood12165
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide14042
21 Jul 24North Melbourne17161
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs16025
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS17022
30 Jun 24Richmond7014
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals 14.5 Over -172 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals 13.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals 12.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals Pending
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Oliver Hollands (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Oliver Hollands is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.9% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 1 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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