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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Crisp is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 81%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +18.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:03AM UTC
AFL

Jack Crisp

Collingwood

+18.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -169 (1.59)
+18.3% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 9:35AM
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Model Probability
81.2%
Implied Probability
62.9%
Model Edge
+18.3%
Predicted Value
21.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals81.2%—62.9%1.23+18.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jack Crisp (Collingwood) Over 17.5 Disposals (-169)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable midfield performers, Jack Crisp stands tall like a seasoned oak tree in the heart of the Collingwood Magpies lineup. The numbers don't lie; in his last five home games, Crisp has been a whirlwind of activity, averaging an impressive 20 disposals. His contested possession game has been solid, averaging 8.2, while his disposal efficiency sits at a respectable 77.2%. Against the upcoming opponent, Carlton, he's been even more prolific, averaging 21 disposals in their recent encounters. With a current hit streak of 6 at home and a knack for hitting his disposal line consistently, Crisp looks primed to boss the midfield once again. Backing him to surpass 17.5 disposals seems like a safe bet considering his recent form and historical performance against the Blues.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs CarltonO 17.5 -172+17.9% edge
70%hit L10 O 17.5
18.2avg disposals L5
Home20vs Carlton21.8Season best32
O 15.590%
O 16.580%
O 17.570%
O 18.560%
O 19.540%
O 20.540%
Game log vs line (O 17.5)7 / 10 hit
27172415221919231720

Jack Crisp has gone over 17.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 18.2 disposals, best 32). Current line: Over 17.5 at -172, model edge +17.9%.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.4avg goals L5
Home0.2vs Carlton0.4Season best3
O 0.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.8 · hi 3 · lo 0
1031001101

Jack Crisp has gone over 0.5 goals in 2 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.4 goals, best 3).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 18.5 Over -175 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 17.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 16.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jack Crisp (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Crisp is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.3% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies on Saturday 18 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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