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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Crisp is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 90%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +4.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 10:13AM UTC
AFL

Jack Crisp

Collingwood

+4.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -588 (1.17)
+4.6% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ West Coast Eagles
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 6:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
90.1%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+4.6%
Predicted Value
21.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals90.1%85.5%1.11+4.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Jack Crisp (Collingwood) Over 15.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball winners, Jack Crisp stands out like a sore thumb. In his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging 20.2 disposals and consistently hitting the 15.5 line. Against this week's opponent, the West Coast Eagles, he's even more prolific, with a robust 24 disposals per encounter. Jack's precision is on point too, boasting a 67.4% disposal efficiency. With his recent form and consistency, it's no surprise he's on a hot streak, hitting his numbers 7 out of 7 times in away games. For a player who can sniff out the footy like a bloodhound, backing Jack Crisp to go over 15.5 disposals is as safe as houses.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs West Coast EaglesO 18.5 -169
50%hit L10 O 18.5
17.4avg disposals L5
Away20.2vs West Coast Eagles26.4Season best32
O 16.580%
O 17.550%
O 18.550%
O 19.530%
O 20.530%
O 21.520%
Game log vs line (O 18.5)7 / 10 hit
27172415221919231720

Jack Crisp has gone over 18.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 17.4 disposals, best 32). Current line: Over 18.5 at -169.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.8avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 0.8 · hi 3 · lo 0
1031001101

Jack Crisp has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 15.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 16.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals Pending
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals Pending
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Jack Crisp (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Crisp is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.6% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs West Coast Eagles on Sunday 9 August at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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