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Model picks & player props
North Melbourne Kangaroos
VS
Collingwood Magpies

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Collingwood Magpies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 30, 4:35AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Fri 10 Jul 2026, 9:40AM
6
Game Picks
10
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 175.5 (Total Points)
For North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Collingwood Magpies (AFL), model win probability 70.9%, fair odds 1.41, book price -110, model edge +18.5%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Fri 10 Jul 2026, 9:40AM at Marvel Stadium.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Points
Under
174.5
+ 5 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Kangaroos

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Collingwood Magpies: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Isaac Quaynor Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Crisp Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jeremy Howe Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Finn O'Sullivan North Melbourne Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Buller Collingwood Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Collingwood Magpies — model preview

<p>Expert analysis and top betting picks for Collingwood Magpies vs North Melbourne Kangaroos. Includes analysis on key players like Finn O'Sullivan. Discover AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Collingwood Magpies vs North Melbourne Kangaroos stats and odds.</p>

Finn O'Sullivan (North Melbourne) Over 17.5 Disposals (-159)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Finn O'Sullivan is primed to shine in the upcoming clash against Collingwood at Marvel Stadium. With an average of 17.6 disposals over his last five away games, he's been a midfield dynamo, consistently finding the footy and making an impact. His ability to maintain a solid 78.7% disposal efficiency under pressure showcases his composure in tight contests. Against Collingwood specifically, he's been even more prolific, averaging 13 disposals in their last encounters. O'Sullivan's recent form, with solid numbers across contested possessions, kicks, and uncontested possessions, points to him comfortably surpassing the 17.5 disposal line. Look for Finn to rack up the possessions, control the midfield, and help drive the Kangaroos to victory.

Jack Crisp (Collingwood) Over 17.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for disposals in the AFL, Jack Crisp is a prime candidate. Playing at home at Marvel Stadium against North Melbourne, Crisp boasts impressive recent form. Over his last 5 home games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging 22.2 disposals, comfortably exceeding the set line of 17.5. His ability to find the footy is evident, with a solid contested possessions average of 8.2 and a knack for efficient disposal at 76.8%. With an average of 4.6 intercepts per game, Crisp not only gathers possessions but disrupts the opposition's play. Against North Melbourne specifically, he's been even more prolific, averaging 19.5 disposals. With a current hit streak of 6 at home and an impressive overall hit rate, Crisp is poised to deliver and surpass the expectations once again. Betting on him to go over 17.5 disposals seems like a smart move for this matchup.

Jack Buller (Collingwood) Over 0.5 Goals (-370)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Jack Buller to snag over 0.5 goals in the upcoming clash between Collingwood and North Melbourne, the stats paint a promising picture. In his last five home games, Buller has been a consistent threat inside 50, averaging 2.8 shots at goal and 2.4 marks inside 50. With an average of 1 goal per home game during this stretch, he's shown a knack for finding the big sticks when playing in front of the home crowd. Considering his recent performances against North Melbourne, where he's averaged 2 goals per game, Buller seems primed to capitalize on this matchup. Despite a slight dip in goal accuracy, sitting at 46.7%, his overall goal-scoring involvement and the Magpies' offensive prowess suggest Buller is in a strong position to split the middle and deliver for punters looking to back him to go over 0.5 goals.

Finn O'Sullivan (North Melbourne) Over 16.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Finn O'Sullivan heading into Marvel Stadium on Friday night is poised to set the turf on fire. Over his last five away games, he's been a disposal magnet, averaging a solid 17.6 possessions. With his contested possession average at 6.4 and a knack for efficient ball use at 78.7%, Finn's set to make his mark. Against Collingwood, he's shown he can step up, averaging 13 disposals in their last encounters. His recent form, boasting an impressive 249.6 meters gained per game, indicates he's ready to take charge. Finn's poised to not just meet but exceed the 16.5 disposal line, making him a prime target for the 'Player Disposals Over' market. Backing Finn O'Sullivan to shine could be a game-changer for your Friday flutter.

Jeremy Howe (Collingwood) Over 14.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jeremy Howe is poised to dominate the upcoming clash against North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium. With an average of 16.4 disposals over his last five home games and a solid 82.5% disposal efficiency, Howe is a defensive stalwart who knows how to find his teammates with precision. In his recent matchups against North Melbourne, Howe has notched an impressive average of 20 disposals. His knack for interceptions (6 per game) and metres gained (321.2 per game) showcases his ability to read the play and launch potent attacking movements. Given his consistent form and the home advantage, backing Howe to surpass 14.5 disposals is a smart bet with strong statistical support. Expect Howe to shine brightly and rack up the possessions to help Collingwood secure a crucial victory.

Finn O'Sullivan (North Melbourne) Over 15.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Finn O'Sullivan is poised to shine in the upcoming clash against Collingwood. Over his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 17.6 disposals, comfortably above the 15.5 line. His slick 78.7% disposal efficiency and ability to cover ground with 243.8 metres gained per game make him a key cog in North Melbourne's engine room. Against Collingwood specifically, Finn has been even more impactful, averaging 18 disposals over the last five encounters. With a streaky form boasting a hit rate of 9 out of the last 11 games, including a current streak of two, Finn O'Sullivan is primed to not just meet but exceed expectations on the disposals front. Lock in the Over 15.5 disposals for Finn with confidence.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
3
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
10 Jul 26 Total Points Under 174.5 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Total Points Under 175.5 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Moneyline Collingwood Magpies ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Collingwood Magpies in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Friday 10 July 2026 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 6 game picks and 10 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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