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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ben Ainsworth is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +1.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 6, 12:08PM UTC
AFL

Ben Ainsworth

Carlton

+1.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -244 (1.41)
+1.5% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.4%
Implied Probability
70.9%
Model Edge
+1.5%
Predicted Value
19.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.4%—70.9%1.38+1.5%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Ben Ainsworth (Carlton) Over 16.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Ben Ainsworth to go over 16.5 disposals in the upcoming clash between Carlton and St Kilda, the numbers paint a compelling picture. Ainsworth has been a reliable ball winner, averaging 17.4 disposals in his last five away games. His recent form is solid, with an impressive 66.8% disposal efficiency and an average of 11 kicks and 6.4 handballs per game. Against St Kilda, he has historically performed well, averaging 17 disposals in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of three games and a model prediction of 19.4 disposals, Ainsworth seems poised to continue his strong run. The stats suggest he'll be in the thick of the action, racking up possessions and driving Carlton's midfield. So, if you're eyeing a player prop bet with a high probability of success, backing Ainsworth to surpass 16.5 disposals looks like a smart play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs St Kilda SaintsO 16.5 -250
70%hit L10 O 16.5
16.2avg disposals L5
Away17.4vs St Kilda17Season best28
O 14.590%
O 15.590%
O 16.570%
O 17.550%
O 18.540%
O 19.530%
Game log vs line (O 16.5)5 / 10 hit
17191912199928916

Ben Ainsworth has gone over 16.5 disposals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 16.2 disposals, best 28). Current line: Over 16.5 at -250.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.2avg goals L5
Away1vs St Kilda1.4Season best2
O 0.580%
O 1.510%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 1 · hi 2 · lo 0
1210110211

Ben Ainsworth has gone over 1.5 goals in 1 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.2 goals, best 2).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals 16.5 Over -244 ✗ MISS
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Carlton Blues Disposals 15.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Ben Ainsworth (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ben Ainsworth is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.5% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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