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AFL

Ben Ainsworth

Carlton

+0.1% Edge
Latest Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -270 (1.37)
+0.1% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues
MCG, Melbourne
Sun 29 Mar, 4:15AM
Model Probability
73.1%
Implied Probability
73.0%
Model Edge
+0.1%
Predicted Value
1.0 Goals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Ben Ainsworth (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the AFL, Ben Ainsworth stands out as a solid choice for the Carlton Blues against the Melbourne Demons. Ainsworth has been on a hot streak at home, averaging 1.6 goals per game over his last five matches. His accuracy in front of goal has been impressive at 48.3%, indicating he knows how to make his opportunities count. With an average of 2.8 shots at goal and 6.4 score involvements per game in his recent home performances, Ainsworth is consistently involved in creating scoring opportunities. Facing Melbourne, a team he has averaged 0.7 goals against in his last five home games, Ainsworth is poised to make an impact. With his current form and the odds in our favor, backing Ainsworth to score over 0.5 goals looks like a smart play for this matchup at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (3 picks) 66.7% (2/3)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
29 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 25 Gold Coast Suns @ Brisbane Lions Disposals 9.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 25 Gold Coast Suns @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 0.5 Over -137 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Ben Ainsworth (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 3 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 66.7% (2/3). The latest model pick for Ben Ainsworth is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.1% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues on Sunday 29 March at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.