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AFL

Ben Ainsworth

Carlton

Value call

Ben Ainsworth (Carlton) has one live pick today: over 0.5 goals that pays $136 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
62 in 100
Predicted
1.1 goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 61.7% · before adjusting for past results 73.7% · the book's price implies 73.5% · gap -11.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Ben Ainsworth
over 0.5 goals
Goals Over 0.5 -278 (1.36) · $100→$136
Value call
HIGHWins about 62 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.60 Odds-278
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ben Ainsworth is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 62%, the price says 74%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 7:05PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.7%61.7%73.5%1.62+0.1%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Ben Ainsworth Over 0.5 Goals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Geelong Cats will face off against Carlton Blues, and Ben Ainsworth has a solid chance to score at least one goal in this game. Our numbers show he often gets into good positions to kick goals, and with Geelong playing at home, they are likely to create plenty of scoring chances. The risk here is that the Carlton defense can sometimes hold strong, making it tougher for Ainsworth. However, given his scoring ability and the chances he usually gets, betting on him to score over 0.5 goals seems like a good pick for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Ben Ainsworth averaged 15.6 disposals, 0.9 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 17 games in 2024.

15.6
Disposals
0.9
Goals
4.9
Marks
1.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (14 Jul 24 vs Port Adelaide), Ben Ainsworth recorded 16 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
14 Jul 24Port Adelaide16171
6 Jul 24North Melbourne9141
29 Jun 24Collingwood28290
23 Jun 24Fremantle9012
8 Jun 24St Kilda9171
2 Jun 24Essendon19131
25 May 24Carlton12042
16 May 24Geelong Cats19161
11 May 24North Melbourne19241
5 May 24Brisbane Lions17151
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Ben Ainsworth (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ben Ainsworth is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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