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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ben Ainsworth is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 79%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +7.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 17, 8:07AM UTC
AFL

Ben Ainsworth

Carlton

+7.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -250 (1.40)
+7.3% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
78.7%
Implied Probability
71.4%
Model Edge
+7.3%
Predicted Value
19.4 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals78.7%—71.4%1.27+7.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Ben Ainsworth (Carlton) Over 15.5 Disposals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mate, if you're looking to back a player prop that's as safe as houses, Ben Ainsworth is your man for this weekend's clash against the Collingwood Magpies. The lad's been on an absolute tear lately, averaging a solid 18 disposals over his last five away games. Not to mention, he's been kicking with precision, boasting a 69.9% disposal efficiency rate, making every possession count. Facing off against the Pies, who he's historically outperformed with an average of 15.2 disposals, Ainsworth is in prime position to snag more than 15.5 touches this game. With his recent form on the road showing consistency and a hunger for the ball, Ainsworth is primed to split the middle and deliver for punters looking to ride his hot streak.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs CollingwoodO 16.5 -167+9.9% edge
60%hit L10 O 16.5
18.2avg disposals L5
Away18vs Collingwood15.2Season best28
O 14.590%
O 15.590%
O 16.560%
O 17.550%
O 18.550%
O 19.550%
Game log vs line (O 16.5)5 / 10 hit
17191912199928916

Ben Ainsworth has gone over 16.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 18.2 disposals, best 28). Current line: Over 16.5 at -167, model edge +9.9%.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 0.5
1avg goals L5
Away1vs Collingwood1.2Season best2
O 0.580%
O 1.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 1 · hi 2 · lo 0
1210110211

Ben Ainsworth has gone over 0.5 goals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1 goals, best 2).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals 16.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals 14.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
16 Apr 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues Goals — — — Pending
09 Apr 26 Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Ben Ainsworth (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ben Ainsworth is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.3% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies on Saturday 18 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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