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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Ben Ainsworth is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 74%, implied 71%, edge +2.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 26, 6:38PM UTC
AFL

Ben Ainsworth

Carlton

+2.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
+2.2% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
1.1 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.7% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap +2.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals73.7%71.4%1.36+2.2%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Ben Ainsworth (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-250)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to a player prop bet like this, Ben Ainsworth is the man you want to back to snag a goal. His recent form on the road has been solid, averaging 1.2 goals in the last five away games. Ainsworth's accuracy inside 50 is impressive, hitting the big sticks at 46.7%. With an average of 2.4 shots at goal per game, he's not afraid to have a crack. In his last five encounters with Melbourne, he's bagged an average of 0.8 goals. Overall, Ainsworth has been consistent, averaging 1.4 goals across his last five games. His ability to impact the scoreboard is evident, with an average of 6 score involvements per game. With a track record like that and facing Melbourne, who he historically performs well against, taking the Over 0.5 goals for Ainsworth seems like a smart bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Ben Ainsworth averaged 15.6 disposals, 0.9 goals and 4.9 marks per game across 17 games in 2024.

15.6
Disposals
0.9
Goals
4.9
Marks
1.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Ben Ainsworth has cleared 11.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.590%
o12.580%
o14.580%
o15.580%
o17.550%
o18.540%
o20.510%
o21.510%
o23.510%
o24.510%
o26.510%
o27.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Ben Ainsworth is averaging 17.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

17.4
Disp · Overall
1.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (14 Jul 24 vs Port Adelaide), Ben Ainsworth recorded 16 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
14 Jul 24Port Adelaide16171
6 Jul 24North Melbourne9141
29 Jun 24Collingwood28290
23 Jun 24Fremantle9012
8 Jun 24St Kilda9171
2 Jun 24Essendon19131
25 May 24Carlton12042
16 May 24Geelong Cats19161
11 May 24North Melbourne19241
5 May 24Brisbane Lions17151
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Goals Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals Pending
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Ben Ainsworth (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ben Ainsworth is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.2% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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