On Saturday 22 August 2026, Carlton Blues play Fremantle Dockers in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Patrick Voss (Fremantle) Over 9.5 Disposals, priced at -164 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Looking ahead to the clash between Carlton and Fremantle, one player stands out as a prime target for our disposals over bet – Patrick Voss. Despite the Dockers being on the road, Voss has been a consistent ball magnet, averaging 12.4 disposals in his last five away games. His recent form includes an impressive 69.4% disposal efficiency and an average of 9.6 kicks per game, showcasing his ability to find space and hit targets. With a solid hit rate in away games and facing an opponent against whom he has historically averaged 10 disposals, Voss looks primed to surpass the line of 9.5 disposals set by sportsbet. Backing Voss to continue his strong run of form and rack up the possessions seems like a smart play in this matchup at Marvel Stadium.
Michael Frederick (Fremantle) Over 11.5 Disposals (-185)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's dive into why Michael Frederick is a solid bet for hitting over 11.5 disposals against Carlton this weekend. Frederick has been a consistent contributor in his last five away games, averaging 11.4 disposals, just shy of our target. His recent showdowns with Carlton show he's more than capable, averaging 11.5 disposals against them away.
With a model predicting him to notch up 14.3 disposals, Frederick seems poised to surpass the line comfortably. His ability to cover ground is evident, with an average of 246.8 meters gained in his recent outings.
Considering his current form and the matchup dynamics, Frederick looks primed to snag those crucial possessions and help drive Fremantle's midfield. Backing him to go over 11.5 disposals at Marvel Stadium could be a savvy play for this clash.
Karl Worner (Fremantle) Over 16.5 Disposals (-256)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to backing Karl Worner to go over 16.5 disposals against Carlton, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five away games, Worner has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 18.6 disposals per game. With his precise 85.7% disposal efficiency and knack for gaining meters (431.8 avg), Worner is a key playmaker for the Dockers. Against Carlton specifically, he's been even more prolific, averaging 15 disposals in their last encounters. With the game set at Marvel Stadium, Worner's ability to find space and create opportunities should shine. Backed by a model prediction of 21 disposals and a solid 7.8% edge, the odds are in our favor for Worner to surpass that 16.5 mark and be a pivotal figure in Fremantle's midfield battle.
Carlton Blues vs Fremantle Dockers: Carlton Blues Win (+125)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The Carlton Blues are poised to snag a crucial victory over the Fremantle Dockers at Marvel Stadium. In their last five home games, the Blues have been a force to be reckoned with, boasting an average margin of 17.2 points and a solid defensive record, conceding just 82.4 points per game on home turf. Their midfield dominance is evident, averaging 41.6 total clearances and 139 contested possessions in these fixtures.
On the flip side, the Dockers have struggled on the road, with an average margin deficit of 29.4 points in their last five away games. Their midfield battle pales in comparison to the Blues, averaging just 35 total clearances and 120.6 contested possessions away from home. With the Blues' home advantage, strong defensive structure, and midfield prowess, backing them to secure the win seems like a smart play in this matchup.
Carlton Blues vs Fremantle Dockers: Under 21.5 team_totals_q1 (-106)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the Carlton Blues clash with the Fremantle Dockers at Marvel Stadium, the stage is set for a defensive showdown. Carlton, known for their attacking prowess, faces a Fremantle side with a stingy defense holding opponents to an average of just 70.6 points over the last five games. Despite Carlton's impressive offensive stats, averaging 102.4 points in their recent outings, Fremantle's defensive grit on the road, conceding only 79.6 points on average, could disrupt the Blues' scoring flow early on. With Carlton averaging 15.6 target goals but facing a disciplined Dockers defense, the under 21.5 on the Blues' Q1 team total seems like a strategic play. Expect a fierce battle early on as both teams look to gain the upper hand in this defensive chess match.
Wade Derksen (Carlton) Over 11.5 Disposals (-233)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When it comes to Wade Derksen of the Carlton Blues, the numbers paint a clear picture for this weekend's clash against the Fremantle Dockers at Marvel Stadium. In his last five home games, Derksen has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 15 disposals per outing. With his precise kicks tallying 11 per game and a knack for gaining critical metres (219 on average), Derksen is a pivotal player in the Blues' setup.
Considering his recent form where he's surpassed the 11.5 disposal mark comfortably, there's a strong case for backing Derksen to shine once more. His consistency in contested possessions (5.2) and intercepts (7) further underlines his impact in the engine room. Add in his impressive disposal efficiency of 69.5%, and it's evident that Derksen is primed to make an impact and surpass the 11.5 disposal line set by the bookies. With Derksen's form and importance to the Blues, taking the Over on his disposals looks like a smart play for this weekend's game.
That is how our model reads Carlton Blues v Fremantle Dockers. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.