On Sunday 9 August 2026, St Kilda Saints play Carlton Blues in the AFL. Our model likes 6 bets here. The one it likes most is Francis Evans (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals, priced at -179 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Alright, footy punters, let's talk Francis Evans. The young gun from Carlton has been lighting it up lately, bagging an average of 1 goal in his last 5 away games. His sharpshooting accuracy at 46.7% and an average of 1.8 shots at goal per game make him a genuine scoring threat. Add in his knack for being involved in the Blues' scoring plays (5.6 score involvements per game), and you've got a player in red-hot form.
Facing St Kilda, a team he's averaged 1 goal against in their away clashes, Francis is poised to split the middle at Marvel Stadium. With an edge of 9.5% and an implied probability of 64.1%, the odds are in our favor for Evans to snag at least one goal. So, back the young gun to keep his scoring streak alive and hit Over 0.5 goals in this Sunday showdown.
Harry McKay (Carlton) Over 12.5 Disposals (-159)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Alright, footy punters, let's talk Harry McKay. The Carlton Blues sharpshooter is set to light up Marvel Stadium against St Kilda. McKay's recent form on the road is nothing short of impressive, averaging 12 disposals per game in his last five away clashes. Facing the Saints, he's even more of a threat, racking up an average of 15 disposals in their past encounters. McKay's ability to find space and cover ground is evident in his 240.2 metres gained on average in away games. With the line set at 12.5, McKay's recent consistency and hunger for the ball make him a prime candidate to surpass that mark. So, if you're looking to back a player with the potential to snag plenty of touches, Harry McKay is your man for this Sunday showdown.
Patrick Cripps (Carlton) Over 21.5 Disposals (-357)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
If you're looking to back a sure bet in the upcoming St Kilda vs. Carlton clash, keep your eyes on Carlton's midfield maestro, Patrick Cripps. The man's a ball magnet, averaging a hefty 28.6 disposals in his last five away games. With a keen eye for 25.3 disposals against St Kilda specifically, he's been nothing short of a possession-hungry force. Cripps doesn't just rack up numbers; he's efficient too, boasting a solid 57.8% disposal efficiency on the road. Couple that with his current 8-game streak of hitting his disposal line when away, and you've got a rock-solid case for Cripps to go over the 21.5 disposal mark. When the going gets tough, Cripps gets going – and those disposals are sure to keep coming in hot at Marvel Stadium.
St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: Under 174.5 Total Points (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the Saints clash with the Blues at Marvel Stadium, expect a defensive battle. St Kilda's recent form shows they’re struggling to hit the scoreboard, averaging just 77.6 points in their last five games. Their target goals of 11.4 per match are also below their season average. On the defensive end, they've tightened up, conceding only 76.6 points on average. Carlton, on the other hand, has been inconsistent but has shown defensive prowess, holding teams to 69.2 points in their recent away games. With both teams focusing on defense and struggling to consistently score, the under looks like a smart play in this matchup. The total points staying under 174.5 seems like a solid bet given these recent trends and defensive performances.
St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: Under 43.5 totals_q1 (-108)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the St Kilda Saints clash with the Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium, the stage is set for a defensive battle early on. St Kilda has been solid defensively, allowing an average of 76.6 points against in their last five games overall, while Carlton has tightened up on the road, conceding just 69.2 points on average in their recent away fixtures.
Offensively, St Kilda has shown a bit of struggle, averaging 77.6 points in their last five home games, while Carlton has been consistent with 77 points scored in their away matches. With both teams showing strength in defense and a bit of inconsistency in attack, the Under 43.5 in the Totals Q1 market looks like a promising bet, especially with both teams averaging under 43.5 points in the first quarter in recent games. This matchup promises a tight, low-scoring start before the game opens up later on.
St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: Under 86.5 totals_h2 (-110)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
When the St Kilda Saints clash with the Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium, the data paints an intriguing picture. St Kilda has been solid defensively in their last five games, conceding an average of 76.6 points overall and 77.6 points at home. Meanwhile, Carlton has shown resilience on the road, allowing just 69.2 points away from home and 77 points overall. Both teams have been efficient in their forward entries, with St Kilda averaging 26.2 shots at goal and Carlton averaging 27.4 shots on the road. However, their conversion rates tell a different story, with St Kilda averaging 11.4 target goals at home compared to Carlton's 11 on the road. With the line set at 86.5, the under looks like a compelling play given the defensive strengths and slightly lower scoring tendencies of both teams in recent outings.
That is how our model reads St Kilda Saints v Carlton Blues. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.