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Model picks & player props
Carlton Blues
VS
St Kilda Saints

Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 31, 3:37AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 9:20AM
6
Game Picks
0
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Carlton Blues (Head to Head)
For Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints (AFL), model win probability 52.9%, fair odds 1.89, book price +139, model edge +11.0%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 9 Aug 2026, 9:20AM at Marvel Stadium.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Carlton Blues
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Carlton BluesHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St Kilda SaintsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Carlton BluesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Blues

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Saints

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Betting angles

2 markets live
MoneylineCarlton Blues to win+139+11.0% edge
53%model win %
+12.4St Kilda Saints margin (L5)
Model pickCarlton Blues to winSt Kilda Saints PF/G84.4Carlton Blues PF/G79.8St Kilda Saints vs opp (L5)0-5

Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints on Aug 9 - Moneyline: the model's pick is Carlton Blues to win at +139, a 53% model win % (+11.0% edge). Over their last five games St Kilda Saints average 84.4 points and Carlton Blues 79.8.

LineSt Kilda Saints -9.5-9.5 -111+10.2% edge
63%cover %
+12.4St Kilda Saints margin (L5)
Model pickSt Kilda Saints -9.5St Kilda Saints PF/G84.4Carlton Blues PF/G79.8

Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints on Aug 9 - Line: the model's pick is St Kilda Saints -9.5 at -111, a 63% cover % (+10.2% edge). Over their last five games St Kilda Saints average 84.4 points and Carlton Blues 79.8.

Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints — model preview

<p>St Kilda Saints v Carlton Blues, 31 July 2026. Top of the list: St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: Carlton Blues 9.5. Our model likes one bet in this game.</p>

On Friday 31 July 2026, St Kilda Saints play Carlton Blues in the AFL. Our model likes one bet here. The one it likes most is St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: Carlton Blues 9.5, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

St Kilda Saints vs Carlton Blues: Carlton Blues 9.5 (-111)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy fans, let's dive into this juicy clash between the St Kilda Saints and the Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium. The Blues are coming off a solid streak, boasting an impressive average of 77 points scored in their last five games, while holding opponents to just 69.2 points. On the road, they've been no pushovers either, with a margin average of 7.8 in their favor. On the other hand, the Saints have been somewhat inconsistent, especially at home, where they've struggled to contain their rivals, conceding an average of 85.4 points. With the Blues' efficient attacking play and sturdy defense, plus the Saints' leaky home form, backing the Blues at +9.5 seems like a savvy move. Expect Carlton to keep it tight and snag a few goals to cover that spread comfortably.

That is how our model reads St Kilda Saints v Carlton Blues. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 9 August 2026 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 6 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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