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The latest Bet Better model pick for Daniel McStay is Over 2.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 62%, implied 72%, edge +1.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 9:47PM UTC
AFL

Daniel McStay

Collingwood

+1.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 2.5 -263 (1.38) · $100→$138
+1.7% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 28 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
3.9 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.1% · the book's price implies 72.5% · gap +1.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks74.1%62.0%72.5%1.61+1.7%

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AI Analysis

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Daniel McStay (Collingwood) Over 2.5 player_marks_over (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to marking prowess, Daniel McStay is a standout force. In his last five away clashes, he's been averaging a solid 4.4 marks per game, showcasing his ability to dominate the air. Facing off against the Western Bulldogs, a team he's historically marked well against, with an average of 5 marks per game in their previous encounters, McStay seems primed to shine. His knack for contested marks, averaging 1.8 in recent away games, coupled with an average of 1.6 marks inside 50, highlights his impact on the field. With the line set at 2.5, McStay's consistent performance and historical success against the Bulldogs make the Over a compelling play. Expect McStay to rise above the pack and snag those crucial marks to deliver on this prop bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Daniel McStay averaged 9.8 disposals, 1.6 goals and 5.2 marks per game across 5 games in 2024.

9.8
Disposals
1.6
Goals
5.2
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Daniel McStay recorded 9 disposals and 2 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Brisbane Lions9250
9 Aug 24Sydney Swans13191
3 Aug 24Carlton8121
28 Jul 24Richmond11351
20 Jul 24Hawthorn8152
22 Sep 23GWS GIANTS5241
7 Sep 23Melbourne7242
25 Aug 23Essendon7103
18 Aug 23Brisbane Lions13241
11 Aug 23Geelong Cats13272
Quick answers:How many disposals does Daniel McStay average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
28 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Western Bulldogs Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Daniel McStay (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Daniel McStay is Over 2.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs on Friday 28 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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