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The latest Bet Better model pick for Beau McCreery is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 57%, versus the book's implied 48%, for a model edge of +8.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 9:13PM UTC
AFL

Beau McCreery

Collingwood

+8.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 +108 (2.08) · $100→$208
+8.6% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Mon 9 Jun, 5:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
56.7%
Implied Probability
48.1%
Model Edge
+8.6%
Predicted Value
0.6 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals56.7%—48.1%1.76+8.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Beau McCreery (Collingwood) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (+108)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Beau McCreery presents a value bet to score anytime based on his recent form and matchup history. With a model predicting him to score 0.6 goals and an edge of 8.6%, McCreery's L5 stats, particularly his 0.4 average goals in away games against Collingwood, suggest he is likely to find the back of the net in this game. His consistent involvement in scoring opportunities, averaging 6 score involvements in away games, coupled with Collingwood's vulnerability, make McCreery a strong candidate to surpass the 0.5 goal line set by the sportsbook. Betting on McCreery to score anytime aligns well with his recent performances and the matchup dynamics.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1avg goals L5
Away0.4vs West Coast Eagles0.7Season best2
O 0.540%
O 1.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.4 · hi 2 · lo 0
0000100120

Beau McCreery has gone over 0.5 goals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1 goals, best 2).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Beau McCreery (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Beau McCreery is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.6% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Melbourne Demons on Monday 9 June at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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