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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Adam Cerra is Under 21.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 55%, edge +17.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 10:59PM UTC
AFL

Adam Cerra

Carlton

+17.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 21.5 -120 (1.83) · $100→$183
+17.1% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
18.9 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.8% · the book's price implies 54.6% · gap +17.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.8%54.6%1.39+17.1%

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AI Analysis

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Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues: Adam Cerra Under 21.5 Disposals (-120)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Melbourne have been strong at home, winning seven out of their last ten games. They usually win the contested ball by a decent margin, and that could limit how much time Carlton's Adam Cerra gets to rack up disposals. Though Carlton has also been doing well lately, Cerra might struggle with Melbourne's pressure, especially at the MCG. With both teams focusing on winning the contested ball, Cerra may find it tough to get more than 21.5 disposals. Carlton has a solid defense, allowing fewer points than Melbourne scores. The biggest risk here is that Cerra could surprise everyone with a standout game, but the numbers suggest he might fall short.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Adam Cerra averaged 19.4 disposals, 0.3 goals and 2.5 marks per game across 13 games in 2024.

19.4
Disposals
0.3
Goals
2.5
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Adam Cerra has cleared 16.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o16.590%
o17.590%
o19.570%
o20.550%
o22.530%
o23.530%
o25.510%
o27.50%
o28.50%
o30.50%
o31.50%
o33.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Adam Cerra is averaging 21.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

21.8
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Adam Cerra recorded 17 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions17053
3 Aug 24Collingwood8012
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide15021
21 Jul 24North Melbourne21020
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs19027
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS21102
30 Jun 24Richmond23033
9 May 24Melbourne21024
3 May 24Collingwood21035
6 Apr 24Fremantle24133
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Adam Cerra (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Adam Cerra is Under 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.1% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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