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AFL

Adam Cerra

Carlton

+6.0% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -222 (1.45)
+6.0% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues
MCG, Melbourne
Sun 29 Mar, 4:15AM
Model Probability
74.9%
Implied Probability
69.0%
Model Edge
+6.0%
Predicted Value
23.9 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Adam Cerra (Carlton) Over 20.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Adam Cerra, the numbers paint a picture of consistency and impact. Over his last five home games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 24.4 disposals. Against Melbourne, he's shown he can handle the pressure, averaging 23 disposals in their recent encounters. What's more, with an efficient disposal rate of 69.0% and a penchant for gaining crucial meters, Cerra is not just a ball magnet but a playmaker who can turn possessions into scoring opportunities. Facing the Demons at the hallowed MCG, where he's comfortable performing, Cerra is poised to snag more than 20.5 disposals. The stats don't lie; Cerra is primed to shine and surpass expectations.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (8 picks) 50.0% (4/8)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
29 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals 20.5 Over -222 ✗ MISS
29 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals 17.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
29 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals 19.5 Over -323 ✗ MISS
03 Aug 25 Carlton Blues @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
24 Jul 25 Carlton Blues @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Jul 25 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Adam Cerra (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 8 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 50.0% (4/8). The latest model pick for Adam Cerra is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.0% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues on Sunday 29 March at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.