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The latest Bet Better model pick for Adam Cerra is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +6.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
AFL

Adam Cerra

Carlton

+6.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -222 (1.45)
+6.0% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Thu 9 Apr, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
74.9%
Implied Probability
69.0%
Model Edge
+6.0%
Predicted Value
23.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.9%69.0%1.33+6.0%

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AI Analysis

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Adam Cerra (Carlton) Over 20.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Adam Cerra, there's a clear pattern emerging that points towards a solid bet on the Over for Disposals against the Adelaide Crows. In his last five away games, Cerra has been a relentless force on the field, averaging 23.8 disposals. His ability to find space and create opportunities is evident in his 65.2% disposal efficiency and impressive 356.4 metres gained per game. Facing the Crows, who he's already surpassed with an average of 18.2 disposals in their previous encounters, sets the stage for Cerra to shine. With a model prediction of 23.9 disposals and a recent overall hit rate of 15/20, the odds favor Cerra snagging this bet and continuing his streak of dominance. Expect him to split the middle and surpass the 20.5 disposal mark comfortably.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
19avg disposals recent
Season best27
Disposals last 10avg 19 · hi 24 · lo 8
2421212321192115817

Adam Cerra has a disposals high of 27 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Apr 26 Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 20.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
09 Apr 26 Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 19.5 Over -323 ✓ HIT
09 Apr 26 Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 18.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
09 Apr 26 Carlton Blues @ Adelaide Crows Disposals Pending
29 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending
29 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Adam Cerra (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Adam Cerra is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.0% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Adelaide Crows on Thursday 9 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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