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The latest Bet Better model pick for Billy Wilson is Over 3.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 62 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 62%, implied 69%, edge +4.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 10, 6:08AM UTC
AFL

Billy Wilson

Carlton

+4.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 3.5 -222 (1.45) · $100→$145
+4.7% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
5.0 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.6% · the book's price implies 69.0% · gap +4.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks73.6%61.7%69.0%1.62+4.7%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Billy Wilson Over 3.5 Marks (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Geelong Cats have a tough time when they face Carlton Blues, especially with Carlton winning the contested ball by a good margin lately. This gives them more chances to score and means they can control the game better. Billy Wilson can take advantage of this, and we think he'll get over 3.5 marks during the match. The risk here is that the Cats don't have a strong track record in contested ball, which could limit Wilson's opportunities. Still, with Carlton's recent form and how well they play together, we feel good about this pick. Keep an eye on Wilson as he looks to make an impact!

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Billy Wilson - AFL Disposals market.

MarksSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Billy Wilson - AFL Marks market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Marks 3.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 16.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 15.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Billy Wilson (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Billy Wilson is Over 3.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.7% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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