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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brodie Kemp is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 96%, versus the book's implied 79%, for a model edge of +16.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 8:15AM UTC
AFL

Brodie Kemp

Carlton

+16.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -385 (1.26)
+16.4% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
95.8%
Implied Probability
79.4%
Model Edge
+16.4%
Predicted Value
1.9 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals95.8%79.4%1.04+16.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-385)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal in the AFL, you want someone who's been in the thick of the action, creating opportunities and hitting the scoreboard. Brodie Kemp fits the bill perfectly. In his last five away games, Kemp has been averaging 1.4 goals, with a solid 50.0% goal accuracy. His involvement in setting up plays is evident with an average of 5.8 score involvements and 3.2 marks inside 50. Facing Collingwood, he's likely to capitalize on his form, especially with an average of 3.6 shots at goal per game. With a hit streak of 4 in away games, the stats paint a picture of a player ready to make his mark. So, when the opportunity arises to back Kemp to kick one through the big sticks, it's a bet worth taking.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs CollingwoodO 0.5 -385+16.4% edge
70%hit L10 O 0.5
1avg goals L5
Away1.4vs Collingwood0.5Season best4
O 0.570%
O 1.550%
O 2.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)2 / 10 hit
0000000410

Brodie Kemp has gone over 0.5 goals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1 goals, best 4). Current line: Over 0.5 at -385, model edge +16.4%.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -345 ✗ MISS
04 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Richmond Tigers Goals 0.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Brodie Kemp (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brodie Kemp is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.4% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies on Saturday 18 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.