Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brodie Kemp is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 96%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +11.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 10:14AM UTC
AFL

Brodie Kemp

Carlton

+11.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -556 (1.18)
+11.0% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
95.8%
Implied Probability
84.7%
Model Edge
+11.0%
Predicted Value
1.9 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals95.8%84.7%1.04+11.0%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to snag a goal, Brodie Kemp from the Carlton Blues is looking like a prime candidate for an 'Over 0.5 Goals' bet against St Kilda. In his last five away games, Kemp has been on a scoring spree, averaging a solid 1.6 goals per match. His accuracy in front of the big sticks has been impressive at 55.0%, meaning he's making those opportunities count. With an average of 3.6 shots on goal per game and 5.8 score involvements, Kemp is actively involved in creating scoring chances. Additionally, his recent form against St Kilda has seen him bagging at least one goal per game. Riding a current hit streak of five games away and a solid overall hit rate, Kemp is poised to continue his scoring ways in this matchup. Betting on him to split the middle looks like a savvy move for this clash at Marvel Stadium.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

1 market live
Goalsvs St Kilda SaintsO 0.5 -556
70%hit L10 O 0.5
1.6avg goals L5
Away1.6vs St Kilda1Season best4
O 0.570%
O 1.550%
O 2.510%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)2 / 10 hit
0000000410

Brodie Kemp has gone over 0.5 goals in 7 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1.6 goals, best 4). Current line: Over 0.5 at -556.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Brisbane Lions @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -667 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Goals 0.5 Over -385 ✓ HIT

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Brodie Kemp (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brodie Kemp is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.0% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.