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AFL

Brodie Kemp

Carlton

Value call

Brodie Kemp (Carlton) has one live pick today: over 9.5 disposals that pays $164 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
58 in 100
Predicted
11.2 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 57.6% · before adjusting for past results 70.1% · the book's price implies 61.0% · gap -3.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 4 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Brodie Kemp
over 9.5 disposals
Disposals Over 9.5 -156 (1.64) · $100→$164
Value call
LEANWins about 58 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$16.40 Odds-156
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brodie Kemp is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 58%, the price says 61%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:06PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.1%57.6%61.0%1.74+9.2%

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AI Analysis

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Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Brodie Kemp Over 9.5 Disposals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

For Brodie Kemp to get over 9.5 disposals tonight, he needs to be involved in the play as Geelong Cats and Carlton Blues go head-to-head at the MCG. The Geelong Cats have been allowing a fair few points, so the game could see plenty of action, giving Kemp more chances to rack up disposals. Kemp has a good chance of hitting this mark because Carlton wins the contested ball by nearly 9 each match, which should help him get his hands on the ball. Plus, Geelong is breaking even in contested possessions, meaning it could be a close contest. The risk here is that if the game turns out to be defensive, Kemp might not see as much of the ball as needed.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 7 of last 10(70%)

Season averages (2024)

Brodie Kemp averaged 14.0 disposals, 0.3 goals and 6.2 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

14.0
Disposals
0.3
Goals
6.2
Marks
2.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Brodie Kemp recorded 7 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Sep 24Brisbane Lions7030
25 Aug 24St Kilda7122
18 Aug 24West Coast Eagles12465
11 Aug 24Hawthorn17052
3 Aug 24Collingwood15094
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide17042
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs180111
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS10033
30 Jun 24Richmond10071
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats9040
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Disposals 9.5 Over -156 ✗ MISS
04 Sep 26 Carlton Blues @ Geelong Cats Goals 0.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 9.5 Over -152 ✓ HIT
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
22 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Carlton Blues Goals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Brodie Kemp (Carlton) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brodie Kemp is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.2% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats on Friday 4 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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