Brodie Kemp (Carlton) Over 1.5 Goals (+103)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Brodie Kemp shapes as a genuine value play at $2.03 to kick two or more goals against Fremantle at Marvel Stadium. The model has him projecting at 1.6 goals — sitting above the 1.5 line — and with a 4.2% edge over the implied probability of 49.3%, there's a real discrepancy worth acting on. His L5 overall numbers are the foundation here: 3.4 shots at goal per game, 2.8 marks inside 50, and a goal average of 1.8 tell you he's regularly getting into dangerous positions and converting at a 49.7% clip. The home-ground picture is slightly softer — 1.8 shots and 36.7% accuracy in his last five at home — but he's still averaging 1.4 goals in those games and has hit this line in four of his last seven home appearances. The L5 vs Fremantle history is thin, so lean on the broader volume and efficiency numbers here. Solid edge, manageable risk.