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Model picks & player props
Collingwood Magpies
VS
Adelaide Crows

Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 5:41PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Outdoor
Thu 23 Jul 2026, 9:30AM
20
Game markets graded
16
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Adelaide Crows -4.5 (Spread Q3)
The model graded 36 markets for Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $189 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 69.4%, fair odds 1.44, book price -112, model edge +16.4%. Tip-off Thu 23 Jul 2026, 9:30AM at Adelaide Oval.
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Collingwood Magpies · $100 returned $284

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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread Q3
Adelaide Crows
-3.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Adelaide CrowsSpread Q3Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpread Q2Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpread Q3Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpread Q4Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total Points H1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total Points H1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total Points Q1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total Points Q1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Points Q1Positive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jack Crisp Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Isaac Quaynor Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Sam Berry Adelaide Crows Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Scott Pendlebury Collingwood Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jordan Dawson Adelaide Crows Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows — what the model found

Our model graded 36 betting markets for Collingwood Magpies at Adelaide Crows — 20 on the game itself and 16 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
16
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 36 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 35 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows — recent results

Adelaide Crows have won 4 of their last 5 games; Collingwood Magpies have won 0 of their last 0.

Adelaide Crows — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W63–54RICHHome
W145–73ESSAway
L74–108COLLHome
W87–71SYDAway
W128–49SUNSHome

Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows — model preview

Deep dive into Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like Isaac Quaynor. Check out AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Adelaide Crows vs Collingwood Magpies stats and odds.

Isaac Quaynor (Collingwood) Over 12.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Isaac Quaynor, the defensive linchpin for the Collingwood Magpies, is shaping up to be a pivotal figure in their clash against the Adelaide Crows at the Adelaide Oval. Over his last five away games, Quaynor has been a consistent force, averaging a hefty 17 disposals per game. His recent form also showcases an impressive 80.5% disposal efficiency, ensuring he makes every touch count. Facing the Crows, Quaynor has historically performed even better, averaging 14.8 disposals in his last five matchups against them. With a current hit streak of two games and a strong hit rate, Quaynor is primed to continue his midfield influence. Look for him to intercept, drive the ball forward, and rack up possessions to comfortably surpass the 12.5 disposals mark. Betting on Quaynor to go over in the disposals market seems like a solid play given his recent form and historical performance against Adelaide.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
11
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
23 Jul 26 Moneyline Collingwood Magpies ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Spread Q2 Adelaide Crows -3.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jul 26 Spread Q3 Adelaide Crows -3.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jul 26 Spread Q3 Adelaide Crows -4.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jul 26 Spread Q4 Adelaide Crows -3.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jul 26 Team Total Points H1 Over 35.5 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Team Total Points H1 Over 36.5 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Team Total Points Q1 Over 19.5 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Team Total Points Q1 Over 18.5 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Total Points Under 164.5 ✗ MISS
23 Jul 26 Total Points Q1 Under 41.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Magpies vs Crows, or as Crows vs Magpies. The most recent game between them was Thursday 23 July 2026 at Adelaide Oval. The model has generated 20 game picks and 16 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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