Today's Top NBA Prop Bet Picks & Predictions, Tuesday 03/17 (Tobias Harris Highlights): Best Value Bets

Trendon Watford has been quietly emerging as a scoring threat, and this matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers presents a prime opportunity for him to shine. Over his last five games, he's averaged an impressive 16.6 points, clearly demonstrating that he's found his groove. On the home court, where he's been particularly effective, he's notched 14.8 points per game, making this 8.5 point line seem a bit too low.Defensively, the Sixers have struggled against versatile scorers like Watford, allowing an average of 4.7 points to similar players in recent outings. With his current form and the Nuggets' need for offensive contributions, it's no surprise he's hit the over in three of his last three games. Given these trends, betting on Watford to exceed 8.5 points feels like a savvy move, especially with an implied probability nudging 57.5%. This is a chance to ride the wave of his rising

Tyler Herro (Miami Heat) Over 26.5 Points + Assists (-116)

Tyler Herro is primed for a standout performance against the Charlotte Hornets, and backing him to surpass 26.5 points plus assists feels like a smart play. On the road, Herro has stepped up his game, averaging a robust 28.8 points and 4.4 assists in his last five away outings. This trend is particularly promising against a Charlotte squad that has struggled to contain perimeter scorers. In fact, Herro has lit them up for an average of 26.5 points when playing away. Recent form also suggests he's hitting his stride, with 2 out of his last 3 games on the road exceeding this mark. With the Heat relying heavily on his scoring and playmaking, the stage is set for Herro to not just meet, but exceed expectations. The implied probability of 53.8% further supports this bet - it's time to ride the wave of Herro's talent!

Sam Merrill (Cleveland Cavaliers) Under 9.5 Points (-128)

As the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Cleveland Cavaliers, all eyes should be on Sam Merrill, but not for the reasons many might expect. At an away matchup, Merrill seems poised for a quieter night, especially with a points line set at 9.5. His recent performances tell a compelling story-averaging just 3.6 points on the road over his last five games, his scoring has dipped significantly when away from home. Although he's posted a respectable average of 10 points against the Cavs in the past, recent trends reveal he's only hit the over once in his last seven away games.With a hit rate of 9 out of the last 10 outings largely inflated by home games, it's clear that Merrill's scoring won't travel as well. Expect him to struggle to reach that 9.5 mark tonight, making the under a solid play.

Trendon Watford (Brooklyn Nets) Over 11.5 Points + Assists (-132)

Trendon Watford is primed to shine in the upcoming clash between the Nuggets and the 76ers. With an average of 16.6 points and 3 assists over his last five outings, he's been on a scoring spree that suggests we should expect him to easily clear the 11.5 mark for points and assists. Against the 76ers, Watford has averaged 4 points and 1.8 assists in recent matchups, but the real intrigue lies in his current form-he's hit the Over in all three of his last games. Plus, he's been particularly effective at home, averaging nearly 15 points and 2.4 assists. Given the Nuggets' need for offensive production and Watford's rising confidence, he seems more than capable of exceeding that 11.5 threshold. With a solid hit rate and a favorable matchup, this bet feels like a smart move as we head into tip-off.

Bruce Brown (New Orleans Pelicans) Over 2.5 Rebounds (-161)

As the Denver Nuggets prepare to face the Philadelphia 76ers, keep an eye on Bruce Brown for the over on 2.5 rebounds. He's been quietly impressive lately, averaging 3.4 rebounds over his last five games, and when playing at home, that number jumps to 4.6. It's clear he's found a rhythm, especially against the 76ers, where he's averaged a staggering 10 rebounds in their last five encounters. Furthermore, his recent form shows he's hit this over in three of his last four games. And if you look at his home performances, he's converted on an astonishing 12 of his last 13 games in Denver. With the Nuggets battling for playoff positioning and Brown stepping up on the boards, this prop seems like a smart bet. Expect him to not just meet but exceed that 2.5 mark as he contributes to a crucial home win.