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The latest Bet Better model pick for Alex Caruso is Over 6.5 on Points.
On Points, our numbers say this bet wins about 64 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 64%, implied 57%, edge +6.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 10:23PM UTC
NBA

Alex Caruso

Oklahoma City Thunder

+6.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 6.5 -135 (1.74) · $100→$174
+6.3% Edge
Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK · Indoor
Sat 28 Feb, 2:47AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
64 in 100
Predicted
8.6 Points
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 63.7% · the book's price implies 57.5% · gap +6.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points63.7%—57.5%1.57+6.3%

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AI Analysis

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Alex Caruso (Oklahoma City Thunder) Over 6.5 Points (-135)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Look, folks, if you're in the know then you're already aware of the tear Alex Caruso has been on lately. This guy's been popping off like a bottle rocket for the Oklahoma City Thunder. He's surpassed his 6.5 points target in 14 of his last 17 outings - that's an 82% hit rate. And on the home court? He's even more lethal, clocking in over 6.5 points in 8 out of his last 9 home games. Take a gander at his recent performances against the Denver Nuggets, too. Caruso's hung double figures on the Nuggets in his last five matchups, even hitting an impressive average of 11.8 points at home. So, all eyes on Caruso come Saturday. The stats don't lie - he's a solid bet to outscore his 6.5 points line.

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Pick History & Track Record

Alex Caruso — 2024-25 season averages

Over 64 games in the 2024-25 season, Alex Caruso averaged 7.3 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 19.7 minutes per game, shooting 43.9% from the field and 36.3% from three-point range.

7.3
PPG
3.0
RPG
2.6
APG
1.6
SPG
0.6
BPG
19.7
MPG
43.9%
FG%
36.3%
3P%

Alex Caruso — recent role

Across his last 5 games, Alex Caruso has played 22.2 minutes per game and started 0% of them.

22.2
MPG (L5)
10.4
PPG (L5)
0%
Started

Alex Caruso — home vs away scoring

At home Alex Caruso averages 7.3 points per game; on the road, 7.3. Worth checking against tonight's points line.

7.3
PPG at home
7.3
PPG on the road

Alex Caruso — scoring by opponent

Alex Caruso scores most against the OKC, averaging 9.3 points per game in that matchup.

9.3
OKC
9.3
IND
8.8
TOR
8.7
NO
8.4
POR
8.3
LAC

Alex Caruso — last 10 games

Over his last 10 games, Alex Caruso has averaged 10.0 points, 3.2 rebounds and 3.0 assists.

DateOppMinPtsRebAst
13 Mayvs DEN241342
11 May@ DEN281042
9 May@ DEN23722
7 Mayvs DEN10200
5 Mayvs DEN262016
26 Apr@ MEM26635
24 Apr@ MEM231063
22 Aprvs MEM221343
20 Aprvs MEM12034
9 Apr@ PHX271953
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Feb 26 Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Points 6.5 Over -135 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Alex Caruso (Oklahoma City Thunder) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alex Caruso is Over 6.5 on Points. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.3% on this pick. Their next game is Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday 28 February at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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