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The latest Bet Better model pick for Alex Caruso is Over 6.5 on Points.
On the Points market the model assigns a model win probability of 64%, versus the book's implied 57%, for a model edge of +6.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NBA schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
NBA

Alex Caruso

Oklahoma City Thunder

+6.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Points Over 6.5 -135 (1.74)
+6.3% Edge
Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK · Indoor
Sat 28 Feb, 2:47AM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
63.7%
Implied Probability
57.5%
Model Edge
+6.3%
Predicted Value
8.6 Points

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Points63.7%—57.5%1.57+6.3%

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AI Analysis

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Alex Caruso (Oklahoma City Thunder) Over 6.5 Points (-135)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

Look, folks, if you're in the know then you're already aware of the tear Alex Caruso has been on lately. This guy's been popping off like a bottle rocket for the Oklahoma City Thunder. He's surpassed his 6.5 points target in 14 of his last 17 outings - that's an 82% hit rate. And on the home court? He's even more lethal, clocking in over 6.5 points in 8 out of his last 9 home games. Take a gander at his recent performances against the Denver Nuggets, too. Caruso's hung double figures on the Nuggets in his last five matchups, even hitting an impressive average of 11.8 points at home. So, all eyes on Caruso come Saturday. The stats don't lie - he's a solid bet to outscore his 6.5 points line.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
60%hit · L10
3.0avg · last 10
L52.4Szn2.6Home2.5Away2.7Best13
1+89%
3+42%
5+17%
Game log vs O 2.5avg 3 · hi 6 · lo 0
3433560222

Alex Caruso is averaging 3.0 assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 2.6, best 13). He clears 3+ in 42% of 2024-25 games.

Points2024-25 · formNo line posted
70%hit · L10
10.0avg · last 10
L510.4Szn7.3Home7.3Away7.3Best32
2+91%
7+50%
12+22%
17+6%
Game log vs O 6.5avg 10 · hi 20 · lo 0
1901310620271013

Alex Caruso is averaging 10.0 points over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 7.3, best 32). He clears 7+ in 50% of 2024-25 games.

Rebounds + Assists2024-25 · formNo line posted
80%hit · L10
6.2avg · last 10
L54.6Szn5.5Home5.1Away6.0Best22
3+88%
6+48%
9+13%
Game log vs O 5.5avg 6.2 · hi 9 · lo 0
8779870466

Alex Caruso is averaging 6.2 rebounds + assists over his last 10 games (2024-25 avg 5.5, best 22). He clears 6+ in 48% of 2024-25 games.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
28 Feb 26 Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Points 6.5 Over -135 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Alex Caruso (Oklahoma City Thunder) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NBA player prop betting. The latest model pick for Alex Caruso is Over 6.5 on Points. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.3% on this pick. Their next game is Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday 28 February at Paycom Center, Oklahoma City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NBA betting strategy.

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