Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 10.5 Assists (-139)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets gear up to host the Toronto Raptors, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but not for the reasons most think. While his average assists over the last five games is a lofty 12.4, it's important to note that his distribution has dipped slightly in home games, landing at 10.8. Against the Raptors, Jokic has averaged just 8.4 assists, and when at home, that number drops to 8.6. This matchup could see him focusing more on scoring against Toronto's defense, which has tightened up recently. With the implied probability suggesting a 58.1% chance he stays under 10.5 assists, the numbers are nudging us to consider the under as a savvy play. Expect Jokic to still be impactful, but perhaps in a more scoring-centric role rather than a playmaking one.

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