Jalen Johnson (Atlanta Hawks) Under 17.5 Rebounds + Assists (-106)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Hawks head to Madison Square Garden, all eyes are on Jalen Johnson, but a closer look at his recent performances suggests that taking the under on his combined rebounds and assists at 17.5 might be the savvy move. While he's been a solid contributor lately, averaging 11.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists in his last five games, the numbers dip when he's away from home, where he's averaged just 10 rebounds and 7.4 assists. Against the Knicks, Johnson's averages drop further, with only 9.8 rebounds and 6 assists in their last few matchups. Given that he's hit the under in three of his last four away games, the trend is leaning toward a quieter night. With his expected stat value sitting at 14.33, betting the under feels like a smart play in this crowded and tough environment.

Moussa Diabate (Charlotte Hornets) Under 12.5 Rebounds + Assists (-127)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Orlando Magic host the Charlotte Hornets, all eyes will be on Moussa Diabate. But with his current rhythm, leaning towards the under on his combined rebounds and assists feels like a smart play. Diabate has been solid, averaging 8.6 rebounds and 3 assists over his last five games. However, when we look at his away performances, those numbers dip slightly to 8 rebounds and 3.2 assists. Against the Hornets, he's managed just 7 rebounds and 1.2 assists in their last five matchups, even less when playing away, with an average of only 2 assists. Given that his expected stat value sits at around 9, the 12.5 threshold seems a bit steep. With a recent hit rate of 75% for the under, this looks like a promising opportunity to capitalize on. Trust the numbers; they tell a compelling story that favors the under.

Ayo Dosunmu (Minnesota Timberwolves) Over 14.5 Points + Rebounds (-109)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Timberwolves prepare to take on the Nuggets in Denver, all eyes should be on Ayo Dosunmu, particularly when it comes to the points and rebounds prop at over 14.5. The numbers paint a compelling picture: Dosunmu has not only averaged a solid 19 points and 6 rebounds in his last five away games, but he's also been on a remarkable tear, hitting this mark in all 13 of his last appearances. Against the Timberwolves specifically, he's been effective, averaging 12.8 points when facing them, and that number ticks up on the road. With the Nuggets' defense being a bit vulnerable lately, especially to guards, Dosunmu's ability to attack the rim and contribute on the boards makes this wager enticing. Given his consistency and the favorable matchup, betting on him to go over 14.5 feels like a smart play this Saturday.

LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers) Under 34.5 Points + Assists (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Lakers gear up to face the Rockets, all eyes will be on LeBron James, but betting the under on his combined points and assists at 34.5 might be the smart play. In his last five games, LeBron has averaged just 23 points and 9.2 assists, well below this threshold. Even when he's at home, his numbers dip slightly to 19 points and 8.8 assists. Against Houston, he's averaged 20.2 points and 5.8 assists recently, and at home, those figures rise a bit but still land at 26.6 points and 7.4 assists. With an impressive hit rate of 17 out of his last 20 games staying under this mark, the trend is clear. The Rockets may provide a fun matchup, but expect LeBron to distribute the ball more than dominate the scoring. This makes the under a compelling option for this matchup.

Sam Merrill (Cleveland Cavaliers) Over 9.5 Points (-108)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Cleveland Cavaliers host the Toronto Raptors, all eyes should be on Sam Merrill to exceed the 9.5-point mark. Merrill has shown he can step up at home, averaging 11 points over his last five games in Cleveland. While his recent numbers against the Raptors might suggest a challenge, scoring 5.7 points at home against them isn't the full story. The fact is, he's been heating up, with an impressive hit rate of 8 out of his last 11 games. This matchup gives him a real chance to exploit Toronto's defensive lapses, and with the Cavs looking to solidify their home-court advantage, expect Merrill to play a pivotal role. With a projected output of 14.27 points and a solid hit rate backing him, betting on Merrill to go over 9.5 feels like a smart move. He's poised to shine when it counts.

Landry Shamet (New York Knicks) Over 4.5 Points (-114)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the New York Knicks gear up to face the Atlanta Hawks, Landry Shamet stands out as a prime candidate for the over on his points total of 4.5. Playing at home, Shamet has thrived, averaging 6.2 points in his last five games at Madison Square Garden. His recent form shows he's not just a role player; he's consistently hitting the scoreboard, with 10 out of his last 12 home games seeing him exceed this number.Against the Hawks, Shamet has averaged 7 points in their last matchups, and with the Knicks looking to capitalize on their home-court advantage, he's likely to find opportunities for open looks. With a hitting rate of 13 out of his last 17 games, the odds are decidedly in his favor. Expect Shamet to comfortably surpass that 4.5 mark as he takes the floor on Saturday.

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