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Model picks & player props
Pittsburgh Pirates
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 1, 8:16AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Thu 2 Jul 2026, 4:35PM
20
Game markets graded
3
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline -122

The model graded 23 markets for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $182 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 2 Jul 2026, 4:35PM at Citizens Bank Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win79.4%
The price says54.9%
Best price-122
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Philadelphia Phillies High79% chance -122
Spread Lean52% chance
Spread Lean57% chance
Spread High62% chance
Spread Lean48% chance
Spread Lean43% chance
Spread Long-shot39% chance
Spread High84% chance
Spread High66% chance
Batter - Hits × 3 props Highup to 89%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Over 7.5 · $100 returned $168

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Konnor Griffin SSOut
  • Endy Rodriguez COut
  • Ryan O'Hearn RFOut
  • Mitch Keller SPOut

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Aaron Nola SP
Availability updated Sep 1, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Trea Turner WSN Batter - Hits
Konnor Griffin Batter - Hits
Nick Gonzales Batter - Hits

+ 3 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA0.2Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 1.8 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF1.8L5 RA0.2Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 3-2, 1.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh PiratesNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 3-2, 1.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
1.4runs we expect
L5 RF1.8L5 RA0.2Home L53-2vs Pittsburgh Pirates L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 1.8 runs/gm.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 23 betting markets for Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies — 20 on the game itself and 3 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
3
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 23 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 22 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 4 of their last 5 games; Pittsburgh Pirates have won 3 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2LAAAway
W5–2LAAAway
W5–3LAAAway
L1–4SEAAway
W6–0SEAAway
Pittsburgh Pirates — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–4STLAway
L1–4STLAway
W6–2STLAway
W1–0SDAway
L0–3SDAway

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Philadelphia Phillies are scoring 5.8 runs per game (4-1) while Pittsburgh Pirates are at 5.6 (3-2); Philadelphia Phillies pitchers are allowing 1.8 earned runs per game versus 4.8 for Pittsburgh Pirates.

5.8
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
5.6
Pittsburgh Pirates runs/G
Last 5 gamesPhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates
Runs / game5.85.6
Hits / game6.47.0
Home runs / game1.41.2
Walks drawn / game2.02.4
Batter K / game6.05.0
Earned runs allowed / game1.84.8
Pitching K / game4.45.0
Walks allowed / game2.42.0
L5 record4-13-2

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 9 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 6, Pittsburgh Pirates won 3.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesPittsburgh PiratesWinner
Jul 216Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 1106Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 3080Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 29711Pittsburgh Pirates
May 1760Philadelphia Phillies
May 1660Philadelphia Phillies
May 15119Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 61410Philadelphia Phillies
Feb 2234Pittsburgh Pirates

Who’s out or in doubt

11 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Rafael Marchan COUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Pittsburgh Pirates
PlayerStatus
Konnor Griffin SSOUT
Endy Rodriguez COUT
Ryan O'Hearn RFOUT
Mitch Keller SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates stats and odds.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates : Under 14.5 Total Runs (-526)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

As the Phillies host the Pirates, it’s hard to ignore the trends pointing toward a low-scoring affair. Philadelphia’s pitching has been on point recently, sporting a team ERA that ranks among the league’s best. Their starters have consistently kept opponents guessing, limiting hard contact and forcing weak swings. Meanwhile, the Pirates have struggled to generate runs against strong pitching, averaging just a handful of runs per game. Their lineup has been prone to striking out, which could be a recipe for disaster against the Phillies' ace on the mound. With both teams leaning on their pitchers and the Pirates’ hitting woes, the under seems like a smart play. The recent form suggests runs will be at a premium, making the 14.5 line feel inflated. Expect a tightly contested game where pitching dominates the narrative, solidifying the case for taking the under.

Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
30 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 6 ✓ HIT
30 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
30 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 7 ✓ HIT
30 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Pirates vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Pirates. The most recent game between them was Thursday 2 July 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 3 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 35 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 18–17 across the last 35 meetings · these games average 9.1 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
2 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies1–6Pittsburgh Pirates
1 Jul 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies10–6Philadelphia Phillies
30 Jun 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies8–0Philadelphia Phillies
29 Jun 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies7–11Pittsburgh Pirates
17 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates0–6Philadelphia Phillies
16 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates0–6Philadelphia Phillies
15 May 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates9–11Philadelphia Phillies
6 Mar 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates10–14Philadelphia Phillies
22 Feb 2026Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies3–4Pittsburgh Pirates
8 Jun 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Pittsburgh Pirates2–1Pittsburgh Pirates

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 35 meetings on file.

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