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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 8:38PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Truist Park, Atlanta
Outdoor
Sun 29 Jun 2025, 5:35PM
2
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Atlanta Braves (Moneyline)
The model graded 2 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $153 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 79.2%, fair odds 1.26, book price -189, model edge +13.9%. Tip-off Sun 29 Jun 2025, 5:35PM at Truist Park.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Moneyline
Atlanta Braves
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Atlanta BravesMoneylinePositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPDay-to-day
  • Derek Hill CFDay-to-day
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Painter SP

Atlanta Braves

  • Robert Suarez RPOut
  • Reynaldo Lopez RPOut
  • Spencer Strider SPOut
  • Spencer Schwellenbach SPOut
  • Joe Jimenez RPOut
  • Joey Wentz RPOut

Probable pitcher

Bryce Elder SP
Availability updated Aug 10, 11:45PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineAtlanta BravesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.4Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1Free board9-8

Atlanta Braves moneyline form: last five 1-4, 0.8 runs/gm.

Run LineAtlanta Braves run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.4Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1

Atlanta Braves spread form: last five 1-4, 0.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Atlanta Braves total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsAtlanta Braves team totalNo line posted
1.1runs we expect
L5 RF0.8L5 RA0.4Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L54-1

Atlanta Braves team total runs form: last five 1-4, 0.8 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves — what the model found

Our model graded 2 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves — 2 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 2 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 1 graded call for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — recent results

Atlanta Braves have won 3 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

Atlanta Braves — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–1NYYAway
L4–5NYYAway
L2–3NYYAway
W11–3MIAHome
W4–1MIAHome
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–6TORHome
L5–7TORHome
L4–5TORHome
W7–3WSHHome
L4–10WSHHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Atlanta Braves are scoring 5.2 runs per game (4-1) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 5.6 (2-3); Atlanta Braves pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 5.4 for Philadelphia Phillies.

5.2
Atlanta Braves runs/G
5.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesAtlanta BravesPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game5.25.6
Hits / game8.410.2
Home runs / game1.60.6
Walks drawn / game3.63.8
Batter K / game6.48.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.65.4
Pitching K / game5.68.6
Walks allowed / game3.22.8
L5 record4-12-3

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Atlanta Braves
PlayerStatus
Robert Suarez RPOUT
Reynaldo Lopez RPOUT
Spencer Strider SPOUT
Spencer Schwellenbach SPOUT
Joe Jimenez RPOUT
Joey Wentz RPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPDAY-TO-DAY
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RPOUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Braves, or as Braves vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Sunday 29 June 2025 at Truist Park. The model has generated 2 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Today's selected board

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