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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 3:57AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Truist Park, Atlanta
Outdoor
Sun 29 Jun 2025, 5:35PM
2
Game markets graded
10
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Atlanta Braves Moneyline -185

The model graded 12 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $154 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 29 Jun 2025, 5:35PM at Truist Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win79.2%
The price says64.9%
Best price-185
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Atlanta Braves High79% chance -185
Pitcher - Walks × 2 props Highup to 90%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 4 props Highup to 93%
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 97%
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 2 props Highup to 94%
Batter - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 78%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
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Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Atlanta Braves
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Atlanta BravesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Zack Wheeler SP

Atlanta Braves

  • Spencer Strider SPOut
  • Spencer Schwellenbach SPOut
  • Robert Suarez RPOut
  • Joe Jimenez RPOut
  • Reynaldo Lopez RPOut
  • Joey Wentz RPOut

Probable pitcher

Tyler Mahle SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 8:07PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jesus Luzardo PHI Pitcher - Walks
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Stolen Bases
Spencer Strider ATL Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Stuart Fairchild ATL Batter - Stolen Bases
Brandon Marsh PHI Batter - Stolen Bases

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineAtlanta BravesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Atlanta Braves moneyline form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Run LineAtlanta Braves run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Atlanta Braves spread form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Atlanta Braves total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsAtlanta Braves team totalNo line posted
0.9runs we expect
L5 RF0.6L5 RA0.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Atlanta Braves team total runs form: last five 2-3, 0.6 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves — what the model found

Our model graded 12 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves — 2 on the game itself and 10 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
10
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 12 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — recent results

Atlanta Braves have won 5 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 3 of their last 5.

Atlanta Braves — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W2–1COLHome
W6–4COLHome
W1–0LADHome
W6–5LADHome
W4–3LADHome
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3LAAAway
L1–4SEAAway
W6–0SEAAway
L2–9SEAAway
W6–4STLHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Atlanta Braves are scoring 5.2 runs per game (4-1) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 5.6 (2-3); Atlanta Braves pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 5.4 for Philadelphia Phillies.

5.2
Atlanta Braves runs/G
5.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesAtlanta BravesPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game5.25.6
Hits / game8.410.2
Home runs / game1.60.6
Walks drawn / game3.63.8
Batter K / game6.48.0
Earned runs allowed / game3.65.4
Pitching K / game5.68.6
Walks allowed / game3.22.8
L5 record4-12-3

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — recent meetings

These two have met 8 times recently: Atlanta Braves won 7, Philadelphia Phillies won 1.

DateAtlanta BravesPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Apr 2662Atlanta Braves
Apr 2558Philadelphia Phillies
Apr 2453Atlanta Braves
Apr 1942Atlanta Braves
Apr 1831Atlanta Braves
Apr 1790Atlanta Braves
Mar 1832Atlanta Braves
Mar 1510Atlanta Braves

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Atlanta Braves
PlayerStatus
Spencer Strider SPOUT
Spencer Schwellenbach SPOUT
Robert Suarez RPOUT
Joe Jimenez RPOUT
Reynaldo Lopez RPOUT
Joey Wentz RPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Rafael Marchan COUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves — model preview

Latest MLB betting preview: Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies. Get predictions and top picks. Includes analysis on key players like Jesus Luzardo. Keywords: MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies stats and odds.

Jesus Luzardo (PHI) Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-526)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Jesus Luzardo is a strong choice for the Over 3.5 Pitcher Strikeouts bet. His recent performance data suggests a high strikeout rate. Across his last five games, Luzardo's overall average strikeouts (SO) is 7.2, well above the 3.5 line. Even when considering only away games, his average SO is 5.4, still above the line. When Luzardo has faced the Braves in the past, his average SO remains high at 7. This consistency in his performance, regardless of location or opponent, indicates a high likelihood of achieving more than 3.5 strikeouts. Furthermore, Luzardo is currently on a five-game hit streak overall and a two-game hit streak in away games, suggesting he is in good form. This combination of high averages and current form make Luzardo a good bet for Over 3.5 strikeouts.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Braves, or as Braves vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Sunday 29 June 2025 at Truist Park. The model has generated 2 game picks and 10 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 55 meetings on record
Atlanta Braves 30–24 across the last 55 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 8.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
26 Apr 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves6–2Atlanta Braves
25 Apr 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves5–8Philadelphia Phillies
24 Apr 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves5–3Atlanta Braves
19 Apr 2026Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies2–4Atlanta Braves
18 Apr 2026Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies1–3Atlanta Braves
17 Apr 2026Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies0–9Atlanta Braves
18 Mar 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves3–2Atlanta Braves
15 Mar 2026Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies0–1Atlanta Braves
31 Aug 2025Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies1–3Atlanta Braves
30 Aug 2025Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies3–2Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 55 meetings on file.

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