Model picks & player props

MLB

Truist Park, Atlanta

Outdoor

Thu 1 Oct 2026, 8:00 PM ET

Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction & Picks

Name: Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves MLB model predictions
Creator: Bet Better
License: https://betbetter.world/Terms

Our model graded 70 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves and backs Atlanta Braves hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $225.

Game markets graded

Props graded

The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings

You bet$10 If it wins$22.50Best price+125

Our confidenceLean

Chance to win46.0%

The price says42.6%

The model graded 70 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $225 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 1 Oct 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Truist Park.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market

Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings	Atlanta Braves	Lean46% chance	+125
Total Runs	Members only	Long-shot19% chance	Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings	Members only	Long-shot37% chance	Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings	Members only	Long-shot6% chance	Members
Batter - RBIs	× 4 props	Long-shotup to 34%	Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs	× 5 props	Highup to 67%	Members
Batter - Walks	× 4 props	Leanup to 43%	Members
Batter - Total Bases	× 6 props	Leanup to 42%	Members
Batter - Stolen Bases	× 5 props	Long-shotup to 18%	Members
Batter - Strikeouts	× 7 props	Long-shotup to 34%	Members
Batter - Home Runs	× 5 props	Long-shotup to 16%	Members
Batter - Hits	× 8 props	Long-shotup to 20%	Members
Batter - Doubles	× 3 props	Long-shotup to 19%	Members
Batter - Singles	× 3 props	Long-shotup to 10%	Members

High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Every MLB game on today's board →

Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves last met on Thu 1 Oct 2026: Atlanta Braves won 6-2. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green

Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings

Atlanta Braves

+125

+ 19 more markets

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market

Pick	Market	Model lean
Atlanta Braves	Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over	Total Runs	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over	Total Runs	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Atlanta Braves	Spread - 1st 5 Innings	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over	Total Runs	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over	Total Runs	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over	Total Runs	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Under	Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over	Total Runs	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over	Total Runs	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over	Total Runs	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over	Total Runs	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over	Total Runs	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over	Total Runs	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Over	Total Runs	The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

Caleb Kilian RPOut
Felix Reyes LFOut
Brad Keller RPOut
Johan Rojas CFOut
Adolis Garcia RFOut

Atlanta Braves

Martin Perez SPOut
Bryce Elder SPOut
Hurston Waldrep SPOut
Reynaldo Lopez RPOut
Joe Jimenez RPOut
Spencer Strider SPOut
Spencer Schwellenbach SPOut
Joey Wentz RPOut

Availability updated Oct 2, 5:14PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number

For Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.

Factor	This fixture
Ballpark weather	Wind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability	13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 1 Oct

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Picks, October 1, 2026

On October 1, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 6.5 Total Runs (-169), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

Alec Bohm (PHI) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-123)

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Alec Bohm (PHI) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-123). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -123 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.13 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Bryson Stott (PHI) Over 0.5 Walks (+196)

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Bryson Stott (PHI) Over 0.5 Walks (+196). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at +196 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $29.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Atlanta Braves h2h 1st 5 innings (+122)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Atlanta Braves h2h 1st 5 innings (+122). That is a h2h 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at +122 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 7 Total Runs (-135)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 7 Total Runs (-135). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.41 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 6.5 Total Runs (-169)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 6.5 Total Runs (-169). That is a alternate totals bet. It was priced at -169 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.92 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · Every pick for that day

Same game parlay

Written 1 Oct

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, October 1, 2026

On October 1, 2026 our 2-leg same game parlay for Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip LEAN confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Justin Crawford (PHI) Under 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130)

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Justin Crawford (PHI) Under 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at +130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Brandon Marsh (PHI) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-164)

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Brandon Marsh (PHI) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-164). That is a Hits+Runs+RBIs bet. It was priced at -164 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · Every pick for that day

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green

Player	Team	Stat
Sean Murphy		Batter - RBIs
Justin Crawford	PHI	Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs
Bryson Stott	PHI	Batter - Walks
Austin Riley		Batter - Total Bases
Derek Hill		Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Quick answers:How many home runs does Justin Crawford hit?How many home runs does Bryson Stott hit?How many home runs does Austin Riley hit?How many home runs does Derek Hill hit?How many home runs does J.T. Realmuto hit?How many home runs does Mike Yastrzemski hit?

Betting angles

Markets & form

MoneylineAtlanta BravesNo line posted

2-3L5 record

L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Atlanta Braves moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.2 runs/gm.

Run LineAtlanta Braves run lineNo line posted

2-3L5 record

L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Atlanta Braves spread form: last five 2-3, 3.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Atlanta Braves total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsAtlanta Braves team totalNo line posted

4.3runs we expect

L5 RF3.2L5 RA3.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Atlanta Braves team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.2 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

Game markets graded

Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — recent results

Atlanta Braves have won 2 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

Atlanta Braves — last 5

Result	Score	Opponent	Where
L	1–4	LAD	Home
L	1–3	LAD	Home
W	3–2	LAD	Away
L	3–5	LAD	Away
W	6–2	PHI	Home

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5

Result	Score	Opponent	Where
L	2–6	ATL	Away
W	4–3	ATL	Away
L	3–5	ATL	Away
W	7–3	TB	Home
L	1–12	TB	Home

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Atlanta Braves are scoring 4.4 runs per game (2-3) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 2.4 (1-4); Atlanta Braves pitchers are allowing 4.2 earned runs per game versus 5.4 for Philadelphia Phillies.

4.4

Atlanta Braves runs/G

2.4

Philadelphia Phillies runs/G

Last 5 games	Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies
Runs / game	4.4	2.4
Hits / game	7.0	6.6
Home runs / game	1.0	0.4
Walks drawn / game	2.4	3.4
Batter K / game	8.0	7.0
Earned runs allowed / game	4.2	5.4
Pitching K / game	6.2	10.0
Walks allowed / game	2.0	2.8
L5 record	2-3	1-4

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Atlanta Braves won 6, Philadelphia Phillies won 4.

Date	Atlanta Braves	Philadelphia Phillies	Winner
Oct 2	6	2	Atlanta Braves
Sep 30	3	4	Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 29	5	3	Atlanta Braves
Sep 13	4	9	Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 12	12	2	Atlanta Braves
Sep 11	6	5	Atlanta Braves
Sep 7	0	1	Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 6	5	4	Atlanta Braves
Sep 5	2	4	Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 4	5	2	Atlanta Braves

Who’s out or in doubt

13 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Atlanta Braves

Player	Status
Martin Perez SP	OUT
Bryce Elder SP	OUT
Hurston Waldrep SP	OUT
Reynaldo Lopez RP	OUT
Joe Jimenez RP	OUT
Spencer Strider SP	OUT
Spencer Schwellenbach SP	OUT
Joey Wentz RP	OUT

Philadelphia Phillies

Player	Status
Caleb Kilian RP	OUT
Felix Reyes LF	OUT
Brad Keller RP	OUT
Johan Rojas CF	OUT
Adolis Garcia RF	OUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves — model preview

Our Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves prediction for October 1, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

Every bet we like in this game

Alec Bohm (PHI) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-123)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Bryson Stott (PHI) Over 0.5 Walks (+196)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Bryson Stott (PHI) Over 0.5 Walks (+196)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Atlanta Braves h2h 1st 5 innings (+122)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 7 Total Runs (-135)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 6.5 Total Runs (-169)

Odds correct at time of publishing

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.

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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Braves, or as Braves vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Thursday 1 October 2026 at Truist Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves head-to-head record

Final scores · 66 meetings on record

Atlanta Braves 38–27 across the last 66 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 8.6 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Fri 2 Oct 2026, Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: the Braves won 6-2.

Date	Game	Score	Winner
2 Oct 2026	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	6–2	Atlanta Braves
1 Oct 2026	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	6–2	Atlanta Braves
30 Sep 2026	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	3–4	Philadelphia Phillies
29 Sep 2026	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	5–3	Atlanta Braves
13 Sep 2026	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	4–9	Philadelphia Phillies
12 Sep 2026	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	12–2	Atlanta Braves
11 Sep 2026	Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves	6–5	Atlanta Braves
7 Sep 2026	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	1–0	Philadelphia Phillies
6 Sep 2026	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	4–5	Atlanta Braves
5 Sep 2026	Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies	4–2	Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 66 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction & Picks

This game's bets

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Game picks

Calibrated model vs market

Injuries & who's out

Philadelphia Phillies

Atlanta Braves

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

The preview

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Picks, October 1, 2026

Every bet we like in this game

Alec Bohm (PHI) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-123)

Bryson Stott (PHI) Over 0.5 Walks (+196)

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Atlanta Braves h2h 1st 5 innings (+122)

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 7 Total Runs (-135)

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 6.5 Total Runs (-169)

Same game parlay

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, October 1, 2026

The legs, one at a time

Justin Crawford (PHI) Under 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130)

Brandon Marsh (PHI) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-164)

Player props

Betting angles

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves — what the model found

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — last-5 form comparison

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — recent meetings

Who’s out or in doubt

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves — model preview

Every bet we like in this game

Alec Bohm (PHI) Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-123)

Bryson Stott (PHI) Over 0.5 Walks (+196)

Bryson Stott (PHI) Over 0.5 Walks (+196)

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Atlanta Braves h2h 1st 5 innings (+122)

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 7 Total Runs (-135)

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 6.5 Total Runs (-169)

About this matchup

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves head-to-head record

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Get tomorrow's free pick by email