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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Atlanta Braves

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 20, 1:37PM UTC

Our model graded 70 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves and backs Atlanta Braves 4.5 hardest, a strong call, and $100 on it returns about $112.

MLB
Truist Park, Atlanta
Outdoor
Sun 13 Sep 2026, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Atlanta Braves 4.5 Spread -833

The model graded 70 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $112 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 13 Sep 2026, 5:35PM at Truist Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win86.4%
The price says87.7%
Best price-833
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Atlanta Braves 4.5 High86% chance -833
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot10% chance Members
Spread Members only High92% chance Members
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot34% chance Members
Total Runs Members only High86% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean45% chance Members
Batter - Doubles × 1 prop Highup to 74% Members
Batter - Strikeouts × 6 props Leanup to 57% Members
Pitcher - Outs × 2 props Highup to 87% Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 2 props Highup to 83% Members
Batter - Stolen Bases × 6 props Long-shotup to 25% Members
Batter - Walks × 7 props Highup to 84% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 2 props Highup to 65% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 4 props Highup to 79% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Every MLB game on today's board →

Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves last met on Sun 13 Sep 2026. The model's calls from that game are graded below. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 164 of 342 right (mlb pitcher strikeouts overs)
This bet type · last timeSep 20
Bryce Miller Over 2.5
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CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $120
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Atlanta Braves
-1
+108
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 57,564+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Atlanta BravesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Atlanta BravesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Atlanta BravesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Atlanta BravesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Atlanta BravesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Atlanta BravesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Atlanta BravesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Atlanta BravesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Atlanta BravesMoneylineThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Atlanta BravesSpreadThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model would pass 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Jonathan Bowlan RPDay-to-day
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Jesus Luzardo SPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Painter SP

Atlanta Braves

  • Robert Suarez RPOut
  • Reynaldo Lopez RPOut
  • Joe Jimenez RPOut
  • Lane Thomas LFOut
  • Bryce Elder SPOut
  • Spencer Strider SPOut
  • Spencer Schwellenbach SPOut
  • Joey Wentz RPOut

Probable pitcher

Grant Holmes SP
Availability updated Sep 19, 11:10PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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The preview

Written 14 Sep

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Picks, September 14, 2026

On September 14, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Trea Turner (LAD) Under 0.5 Walks (-323), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

J.T. Realmuto (PHI) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-204)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is J.T. Realmuto (PHI) Under 0.5 Runs Scored (-204). That is a Runs Scored bet. It was priced at -204 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.90 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

J.T. Realmuto (PHI) Under 0.5 Hits (+135)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is J.T. Realmuto (PHI) Under 0.5 Hits (+135). That is a Hits bet. It was priced at +135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $23.50 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Trea Turner (LAD) Under 0.5 Walks (-323)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Trea Turner (LAD) Under 0.5 Walks (-323). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -323 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Atlanta Braves -0.5 (+108)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Atlanta Braves -0.5 (+108). That is a spreads 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at +108 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+182)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+182). That is a alternate spreads 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at +182 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $28.20 if it lands. Our model rates this one a long shot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Atlanta Braves -0.5 (+106)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies: Atlanta Braves -0.5 (+106). That is a alternate spreads 1st 5 innings bet. It was priced at +106 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.60 if it lands. Our model rates this one a lean pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every bet above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Same game parlay

Written 14 Sep

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Same Game Parlay picks, September 14, 2026

On September 14, 2026 our 3-leg same game parlay for Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves is built from the bets our model already likes on their own. We rate the whole slip HIGH confidence. Every leg below is a bet our model already rates on its own, so you can see exactly what you are backing and what the book is paying for it.

The legs, one at a time

Ha-Seong Kim (SDP) Under 0.5 Walks (-323)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Ha-Seong Kim (SDP) Under 0.5 Walks (-323). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -323 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Justin Crawford Under 0.5 Doubles (-909)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Justin Crawford Under 0.5 Doubles (-909). That is a Doubles bet. It was priced at -909 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $11.10 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Brandon Marsh (PHI) Under 0.5 Walks (-357)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Atlanta Braves play Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The bet we are looking at is Brandon Marsh (PHI) Under 0.5 Walks (-357). That is a Walks bet. It was priced at -357 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.80 if it lands. Our model rates this one a strong pick. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is the whole read. Every leg above is our own number against the price on the board at the time we wrote this, and the price can move before you get on. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · read as an article

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Mike Yastrzemski SFG Batter - Doubles
Bryce Harper PHI Batter - Strikeouts
Sean Murphy ATL Batter - Strikeouts
Andrew Painter Pitcher - Outs
Grant Holmes ATL Pitcher - Strikeouts

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineAtlanta BravesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA5.8Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2Free board23-23

Atlanta Braves moneyline form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LineAtlanta Braves run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA5.8Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Atlanta Braves spread form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Atlanta Braves total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsAtlanta Braves team totalNo line posted
3.9runs we expect
L5 RF4.6L5 RA5.8Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Atlanta Braves team total runs form: last five 2-3, 4.6 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — recent results

Atlanta Braves have won 3 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

Atlanta Braves — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–2HOUAway
W6–3HOUAway
L4–8CHCAway
W6–3CHCAway
L3–7CHCAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L3–10NYMAway
L3–6NYMAway
W3–0NYMAway
W3–0WSHAway
L3–6WSHAway

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Atlanta Braves are scoring 2.4 runs per game (2-3) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 4.6 (2-3); Atlanta Braves pitchers are allowing 3.6 earned runs per game versus 3.8 for Philadelphia Phillies.

2.4
Atlanta Braves runs/G
4.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesAtlanta BravesPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game2.44.6
Hits / game5.67.2
Home runs / game0.60.8
Walks drawn / game1.62.2
Batter K / game5.89.2
Earned runs allowed / game3.63.8
Pitching K / game8.08.8
Walks allowed / game3.22.2
L5 record2-32-3

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Atlanta Braves won 6, Philadelphia Phillies won 4.

DateAtlanta BravesPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Sep 1349Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 12122Atlanta Braves
Sep 1165Atlanta Braves
Sep 701Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 654Atlanta Braves
Sep 524Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 452Atlanta Braves
Apr 2662Atlanta Braves
Apr 2558Philadelphia Phillies
Apr 2453Atlanta Braves

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Atlanta Braves
PlayerStatus
Robert Suarez RPOUT
Reynaldo Lopez RPOUT
Joe Jimenez RPOUT
Lane Thomas LFOUT
Bryce Elder SPOUT
Spencer Strider SPOUT
Spencer Schwellenbach SPOUT
Joey Wentz RPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Jonathan Bowlan RPDAY-TO-DAY
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Jesus Luzardo SPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves — model preview

Our Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves prediction for September 14, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 14, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Trea Turner (LAD) Under 0.5 Walks (-323), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
13 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 7 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 12 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Under 3.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Spread - 1st 5 Innings Atlanta Braves 2.5 ✓ HIT
13 Sep 26 Total Runs Over 10 ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Braves, or as Braves vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Sunday 13 September 2026 at Truist Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 62 meetings on record
Atlanta Braves 35–26 across the last 62 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 8.7 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
13 Sep 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves4–9Philadelphia Phillies
12 Sep 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves12–2Atlanta Braves
11 Sep 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves6–5Atlanta Braves
7 Sep 2026Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies1–0Philadelphia Phillies
6 Sep 2026Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies4–5Atlanta Braves
5 Sep 2026Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies4–2Philadelphia Phillies
4 Sep 2026Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies2–5Atlanta Braves
26 Apr 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves6–2Atlanta Braves
25 Apr 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves5–8Philadelphia Phillies
24 Apr 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves5–3Atlanta Braves

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 62 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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