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Model picks & player props
Milwaukee Brewers
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 8:38PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Sun 1 Jun 2025, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Under 1.5 (Team Total)
The model graded 20 markets for Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $750 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 21.3%, fair odds 4.69, book price +650, model edge +8.0%. Tip-off Sun 1 Jun 2025, 5:35PM at Citizens Bank Park.

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $170

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total
Under
7.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Joey Ortiz SSDay-to-day
  • Cooper Pratt SSOut
  • Sal Frelick RFOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut
  • Joel Kuhnel RPOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Logan Henderson SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPDay-to-day
  • Derek Hill CFDay-to-day
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Painter SP
Availability updated Aug 11, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Milwaukee Brewers L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Milwaukee Brewers L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee BrewersNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
1.9runs we expect
L5 RF2.8L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Milwaukee Brewers L53-2

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 2.8 runs/gm.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5 games; Milwaukee Brewers have won 4 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–6TORHome
L5–7TORHome
L4–5TORHome
W7–3WSHHome
L4–10WSHHome
Milwaukee Brewers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–3MINHome
W4–3MINHome
L6–8MINHome
W5–2PITHome
W4–2PITHome

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 1, Milwaukee Brewers won 2.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesMilwaukee BrewersWinner
Jun 1404Milwaukee Brewers
Jun 1398Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 1206Milwaukee Brewers

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPDAY-TO-DAY
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RPOUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Milwaukee Brewers
PlayerStatus
Joey Ortiz SSDAY-TO-DAY
Cooper Pratt SSOUT
Sal Frelick RFOUT
JoJo Romero RPOUT
Joel Kuhnel RPOUT
Brandon Woodruff SPOUT
Rob Zastryzny RPOUT
Brian Fitzpatrick RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Brewers vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Brewers. The most recent game between them was Sunday 1 June 2025 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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