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Model picks & player props
Milwaukee Brewers
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:20AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Sun 1 Jun 2025, 5:35PM
20
Game Picks
5
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 5.5 (Team Total Runs)
For Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB), model win probability 75.5%, fair odds 1.32, book price -204, model edge +8.4%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 1 Jun 2025, 5:35PM at Citizens Bank Park.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Team Total Runs
Under
3.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Milwaukee Brewers

  • DL Hall RPOut
  • Kyle Harrison SPOut
  • Brandon Lockridge LFOut
  • David Hamilton 3BOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Sal Frelick RFOut
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Joel Kuhnel RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Jacob Misiorowski SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Lou Trivino RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cristopher Sanchez SP
Availability updated Jul 20, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 16 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability16 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Jose Quintana MIL Pitcher - Hits Allowed 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jose Quintana MIL Pitcher - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Christian Yelich MIL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Joey Ortiz MIL Batter - Stolen Bases 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L52-3Win rec0-11

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L52-3ATS2-14

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee BrewersNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
3.7implied team total
L5 RF4.6L5 RA2.0Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 3-2, 4.6 runs/gm.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

<p>Deep dive into Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers stats and odds.</p>

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers : Under 5.5 alternate_team_totals (-204)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Philadelphia Phillies Under 5.5' for the Team Total Runs is backed by several key statistics. The Milwaukee Brewers have a strong defensive record, allowing an average of just 2.2 runs in their last five games overall and 3.4 runs in their last five away games. This suggests a low-scoring game for the Phillies. Additionally, the Phillies' recent performance at home shows an average of 5.6 runs scored in their last five games, just above the line set for this bet. Furthermore, their record against the Brewers is 2-3, indicating difficulties in scoring against this particular opponent. Also, the Phillies' average batting hits are 10.2 overall and 9.8 at home, which does not guarantee high scoring. These factors combined provide a solid rationale for expecting the Phillies to score under 5.5 runs.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers : Under 3.5 alternate_team_totals (+150)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Philadelphia Phillies Under 3.5' is primarily driven by the strong defensive performance of the Milwaukee Brewers, who have consistently limited their opponents' scoring. In their last five games, they have allowed an average of only 2.2 runs overall and 3.4 runs in away games. This is significantly lower than the Phillies' average scoring rate. Furthermore, the Brewers' pitchers have maintained a low average of 2.6 bases on balls, indicating good control and fewer opportunities for the Phillies to score. The Phillies' recent performance also supports this bet. Despite a decent batting average, their win-loss record is inconsistent, suggesting they may struggle to convert hits into runs. Considering these factors, it is statistically likely that the Phillies will score under 3.5 runs.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers : Under 4.5 alternate_team_totals (-122)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Philadelphia Phillies Under 4.5' is a good choice based on the Phillies' recent performance and the Brewers' defensive record. In the last five games, the Phillies have been inconsistent, winning only two games. Their batting average is also slightly down when playing at home. On the other hand, the Brewers have a strong defensive record, allowing an average of only 2.2 runs in their last five games overall and 3.4 runs in their away games. Moreover, their pitchers have been disciplined, giving away an average of only 2.6 bases on balls. Despite the Phillies' above-average run scoring at home, the Brewers' defensive strength makes it statistically likely that the Phillies will score under 4.5 runs.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers : Under 5.5 alternate_team_totals (-213)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The rationale for betting on 'Philadelphia Phillies Under 5.5' is based on the recent performance data of both teams. The Phillies' last five games show an average of 5.6 runs, just above the line, but their record against the Brewers is 2-3, indicating a struggle against this particular team. On the other hand, the Brewers have a strong defensive record, allowing an average of only 2.2 runs in their last five games. Even when playing away, they've kept their runs allowed average to 3.4, well below the Phillies' scoring average. Additionally, the Brewers' pitchers have kept their walks to a minimum, further limiting scoring opportunities for the opposition. Therefore, given the Brewers' solid defensive performance and the Phillies' middling record against them, it's statistically likely the Phillies will score under 5.5 runs.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers : Under 6.5 alternate_team_totals (-357)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Philadelphia Phillies Under 6.5' is a solid choice considering both the Phillies' recent performance and the Brewers' defensive prowess. The Phillies have averaged 5.6 runs overall in their last five games, and even at home, their average only increases slightly to 6.6, both under the betting line of 6.5. Additionally, their average batting hits have been 10.2 overall and 9.8 at home, indicating a struggle to convert hits into runs. On the other hand, the Brewers have been strong defensively, allowing an average of only 2.2 runs overall and 3.4 on the road in their last five games. Their pitchers have also kept bases on balls low, with an average of 2.6 overall and 4.4 away, limiting the Phillies' scoring opportunities. These factors make it unlikely for the Phillies to score over 6.5 runs.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers : Under 3.5 alternate_team_totals (+145)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Philadelphia Phillies Under 3.5' is a good choice due to several factors. Firstly, the Phillies' recent performance at home shows an average of 6.6 runs, but their overall recent record is weaker at 5.6 runs. Additionally, their batting average has slightly dipped at home. Secondly, the Brewers have been excellent in limiting runs recently, allowing an average of only 2.2 runs overall and 3.4 runs when playing away. Their pitching has also been effective, averaging only 2.6 walks, which reduces the Phillies' scoring opportunities. Lastly, the head-to-head record between the two teams favors the Brewers, with the Phillies winning only 2 out of 5 recent matches. These factors combined suggest a lower scoring game for the Phillies, making 'Under 3.5' a reasonable bet.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 1 June 2025 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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