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Model picks & player props
Milwaukee Brewers
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 31, 2:38AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Sun 1 Jun 2025, 5:35PM
20
Game markets graded
5
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 3.5 Team Total +150

The model graded 25 markets for Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $250 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 1 Jun 2025, 5:35PM at Citizens Bank Park.

Our confidenceLean
Chance to win47.9%
The price says40.0%
Best price+150
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Team Total Under 3.5 Lean48% chance +150
Team Total Long-shot34% chance
Team Total High63% chance
Team Total High76% chance
Team Total High86% chance
Team Total Long-shot21% chance
Team Total Long-shot12% chance
Team Total High92% chance
Team Total High96% chance
Pitcher - Hits Allowed × 1 prop Highup to 96%
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 94%
Batter - Stolen Bases × 3 props Highup to 95%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

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Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record
This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Team Total
Under
4.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam TotalThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Abner Uribe RPOut
  • JoJo Romero RPOut
  • Brandon Woodruff SPOut
  • Joel Kuhnel RPOut
  • Rob Zastryzny RPOut
  • Brian Fitzpatrick RPOut
  • Quinn Priester SPOut
  • Angel Zerpa RPOut

Probable pitcher

Dustin May SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Zack Wheeler SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 8:07PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 15 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability15 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Jose Quintana MIL Pitcher - Hits Allowed
Jose Quintana MIL Pitcher - Walks
Christian Yelich MIL Batter - Stolen Bases
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Stolen Bases
Joey Ortiz MIL Batter - Stolen Bases

+ 5 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.4L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L51-4

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF1.4L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L51-4

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee BrewersNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
0.8runs we expect
L5 RF1.4L5 RA1.2Home L52-3vs Milwaukee Brewers L51-4

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 2-3, 1.4 runs/gm.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 25 betting markets for Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies — 20 on the game itself and 5 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
5
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 25 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 24 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 3 of their last 5 games; Milwaukee Brewers have won 4 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3LAAAway
L1–4SEAAway
W6–0SEAAway
L2–9SEAAway
W6–4STLHome
Milwaukee Brewers — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3TEXHome
W6–1TEXHome
W8–2NYMAway
W8–1NYMAway
L2–3NYMAway

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 1, Milwaukee Brewers won 2.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesMilwaukee BrewersWinner
Jun 1404Milwaukee Brewers
Jun 1398Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 1206Milwaukee Brewers

Who’s out or in doubt

15 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Rafael Marchan COUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Milwaukee Brewers
PlayerStatus
Abner Uribe RPOUT
JoJo Romero RPOUT
Brandon Woodruff SPOUT
Joel Kuhnel RPOUT
Rob Zastryzny RPOUT
Brian Fitzpatrick RPOUT
Quinn Priester SPOUT
Angel Zerpa RPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Deep dive into Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers stats and odds.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers : Under 5.5 alternate_team_totals (-204)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Philadelphia Phillies Under 5.5' for the Team Total Runs is backed by several key statistics. The Milwaukee Brewers have a strong defensive record, allowing an average of just 2.2 runs in their last five games overall and 3.4 runs in their last five away games. This suggests a low-scoring game for the Phillies. Additionally, the Phillies' recent performance at home shows an average of 5.6 runs scored in their last five games, just above the line set for this bet. Furthermore, their record against the Brewers is 2-3, indicating difficulties in scoring against this particular opponent. Also, the Phillies' average batting hits are 10.2 overall and 9.8 at home, which does not guarantee high scoring. These factors combined provide a solid rationale for expecting the Phillies to score under 5.5 runs.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Brewers vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Brewers. The most recent game between them was Sunday 1 June 2025 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 5 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 21 meetings on record
Milwaukee Brewers 12–9 across the last 21 meetings · these games average 8.1 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
14 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers4–0Milwaukee Brewers
13 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers8–9Philadelphia Phillies
12 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers6–0Milwaukee Brewers
4 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers0–2Philadelphia Phillies
3 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers6–3Milwaukee Brewers
1 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers8–10Philadelphia Phillies
1 Jun 2025Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies2–5Milwaukee Brewers
31 May 2025Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies7–17Milwaukee Brewers
30 May 2025Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies2–6Milwaukee Brewers
18 Sep 2024Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers2–1Milwaukee Brewers

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 21 meetings on file.

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