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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 11, 11:22PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Fri 26 Jun 2026, 11:10PM
2
Game markets graded
2
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 8 (Total Runs)
The model graded 4 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $191 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 67.4%, fair odds 1.48, book price -110, model edge +15.0%. Tip-off Fri 26 Jun 2026, 11:10PM at Citi Field.
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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 559 of 1,032 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 5.5
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $363
Our call on this game: 9 picks on tonight's board · logged before tip-offSee tonight's picks

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Over
8
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cristopher Sanchez SP

New York Mets

  • Devin Williams RPOut
  • Cionel Perez RPOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Juan Soto LFOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Nolan McLean SP
Availability updated Aug 11, 11:45PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 14 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability14 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Trea Turner LAD Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Alec Bohm PHI Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2Free board6-6

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

New York Mets spread form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
3.0runs we expect
L5 RF4.6L5 RA1.4Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 4-1, 4.6 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets — what the model found

Our model graded 4 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets — 2 on the game itself and 2 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

2
Game markets graded
2
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 4 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 3 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — recent results

New York Mets have won 4 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 3 of their last 5.

New York Mets — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W8–5ATLAway
W11–1PITAway
L0–9PITAway
W6–4PITAway
W13–6CLEAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W6–5STLAway
W7–6TORHome
L5–7TORHome
L4–5TORHome
W7–3WSHHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 3.6 runs per game (0-5) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 6.8 (4-1); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 6.0 earned runs per game versus 1.8 for Philadelphia Phillies.

3.6
New York Mets runs/G
6.8
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game3.66.8
Hits / game4.26.6
Home runs / game1.01.2
Walks drawn / game1.21.2
Batter K / game3.64.4
Earned runs allowed / game6.01.8
Pitching K / game5.25.8
Walks allowed / game2.60.6
L5 record0-54-1

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — recent meetings

These two have met 9 times recently: New York Mets won 4, Philadelphia Phillies won 5.

DateNew York MetsPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Jul 1961New York Mets
Jul 1816Philadelphia Phillies
Jul 1641New York Mets
Jun 2845Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 2762New York Mets
Jun 2612Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 2126Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 20315Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 1864New York Mets

Who’s out or in doubt

14 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

New York Mets
PlayerStatus
Devin Williams RPOUT
Cionel Perez RPOUT
Austin Warren RPOUT
Juan Soto LFOUT
Justin Hagenman RPOUT
Mark Vientos 1BOUT
Reed Garrett RPOUT
Tylor Megill SPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets — model preview

Deep dive into New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies stats and odds.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies : Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+114)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Mets, or as Mets vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Friday 26 June 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 2 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 8 meetings
Philadelphia Phillies 5–3 across the last 8 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
19 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies1–6New York Mets
18 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies6–1Philadelphia Phillies
16 Jul 2026New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies1–4New York Mets
28 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets4–5Philadelphia Phillies
27 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets6–2New York Mets
26 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets1–2Philadelphia Phillies
21 Jun 2026New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies6–2Philadelphia Phillies
20 Jun 2026New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies15–3Philadelphia Phillies
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