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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
New York Mets

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 22, 6:54PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Citi Field, Queens (NYC)
Outdoor
Fri 26 Jun 2026, 11:10PM
2
Game Picks
2
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 8 (Total Runs)
For Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets (MLB), model win probability 67.4%, fair odds 1.48, book price -110, model edge +15.0%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Fri 26 Jun 2026, 11:10PM at Citi Field.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Over
8
+ 1 more market
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Garrett Stubbs COut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Lou Trivino RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Zack Wheeler SP

New York Mets

  • Clay Holmes SPOut
  • Justin Hagenman RPOut
  • Mark Vientos 1BOut
  • Austin Warren RPOut
  • Dedniel Nunez RPOut
  • Reed Garrett RPOut
  • Tylor Megill SPOut

Probable pitcher

Zac Thornton SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 11:40PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 13 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability13 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Trea Turner LAD Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Alec Bohm PHI Batter - Hits 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineNew York MetsNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

New York Mets moneyline form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineNew York Mets run lineNo line posted
2-3L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

New York Mets spread form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · New York Mets vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

New York Mets total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsNew York Mets team totalNo line posted
2.7implied team total
L5 RF3.0L5 RA2.2Home L52-3vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

New York Mets team total runs form: last five 2-3, 3.0 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games New York Mets are scoring 3.6 runs per game (0-5) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 6.8 (4-1); New York Mets pitchers are allowing 6.0 earned runs per game versus 1.8 for Philadelphia Phillies.

3.6
New York Mets runs/G
6.8
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesNew York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game3.66.8
Hits / game4.26.6
Home runs / game1.01.2
Walks drawn / game1.21.2
Batter K / game3.64.4
Earned runs allowed / game6.01.8
Pitching K / game5.25.8
Walks allowed / game2.60.6
L5 record0-54-1

Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets — model preview

<p>Deep dive into New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies MLB game. Find value betting opportunities. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Check out MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies stats and odds.</p>

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies : Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+114)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
2
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
26 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 8 ✗ MISS
26 Jun 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 ✗ MISS

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Friday 26 June 2026 at Citi Field. The model has generated 2 game picks and 2 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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