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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Washington Nationals

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 6:48PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Nationals Park, Washington
Outdoor
Thu 25 Jun 2026, 10:45PM
20
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
75.9%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Over 8 Total Runs -114

The model graded 21 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $188 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 75.9% across 29 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Thu 25 Jun 2026, 10:45PM at Nationals Park.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win78.6%
The price says53.2%
Best price-114
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 8 High79% chance -114
Total Runs High82% chance
Total Runs High85% chance
Total Runs High87% chance
Total Runs High89% chance
Total Runs High91% chance
Total Runs High93% chance
Spread Long-shot34% chance
Spread Lean43% chance
Batter - Hits × 1 prop Highup to 88%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — the model’s call CASHED
Over 8 · $100 returned $188

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 935 of 1,976 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 29
Under 11.5
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
CASHED
STAKE $100RETURNS $130
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cristopher Sanchez SP

Washington Nationals

  • James Wood RFOut
  • Cade Cavalli SPDay-to-day
  • Connelly Early SPOut
  • Josiah Gray SPOut
  • DJ Herz SPOut
  • Drew Millas COut
  • Richard Lovelady RPOut
  • PJ Poulin RPOut
  • Mitchell Parker RPOut
  • Ken Waldichuk RPOut

Probable pitcher

Cade Cavalli SP
Availability updated Aug 30, 6:42AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 17 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability17 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Trea Turner WSN Batter - Hits

+ 1 player prop graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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The players are right there — Pro shows which of their lines the model backs, and how much to put on each.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineWashington NationalsNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L52-3

Washington Nationals moneyline form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Run LineWashington Nationals run lineNo line posted
4-1L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L52-3

Washington Nationals spread form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Washington Nationals total runs form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsWashington Nationals team totalNo line posted
1.8runs we expect
L5 RF2.4L5 RA0.6Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L52-3

Washington Nationals team total runs form: last five 4-1, 2.4 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals — what the model found

Our model graded 21 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals — 20 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 21 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals — recent results

Washington Nationals have won 3 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 3 of their last 5.

Washington Nationals — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–4MIAHome
W9–2MIAHome
W7–1COLHome
L1–13COLHome
L1–3COLHome
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W5–3LAAAway
L1–4SEAAway
W6–0SEAAway
L2–9SEAAway
W6–4STLHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals — recent meetings

These two have met 10 times recently: Washington Nationals won 2, Philadelphia Phillies won 8.

DateWashington NationalsPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Aug 637Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 5104Washington Nationals
Aug 405Philadelphia Phillies
Aug 336Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 25510Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 2445Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 23914Philadelphia Phillies
Jun 2241Washington Nationals
Apr 156Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 3123Philadelphia Phillies

Who’s out or in doubt

17 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Washington Nationals
PlayerStatus
James Wood RFOUT
Cade Cavalli SPDAY-TO-DAY
Connelly Early SPOUT
Josiah Gray SPOUT
DJ Herz SPOUT
Drew Millas COUT
Richard Lovelady RPOUT
PJ Poulin RPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Rafael Marchan COUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Washington Nationals playing Philadelphia Phillies. Includes analysis on key players like NA. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies stats and odds.

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies : Philadelphia Phillies -3 (+181)

Odds available at NA at time of publishing

🔒 The other 4 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 5 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
29
Total Picks
75.9%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 7.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Spread Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 10 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 9.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 11 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 8 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 8.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 11.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 12 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 12.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 5.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 7 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 6.5 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 6 ✓ HIT
25 Jun 26 Total Runs Over 9 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Nationals, or as Nationals vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Thursday 25 June 2026 at Nationals Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 75.9% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 51 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 33–17 across the last 51 meetings · 1 draw · these games average 9.9 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
6 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies7–3Philadelphia Phillies
5 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies4–10Washington Nationals
4 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies5–0Philadelphia Phillies
3 Aug 2026Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies6–3Philadelphia Phillies
25 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals5–10Philadelphia Phillies
24 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals4–5Philadelphia Phillies
23 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals9–14Philadelphia Phillies
22 Jun 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals4–1Washington Nationals
1 Apr 2026Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies6–5Philadelphia Phillies
31 Mar 2026Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies3–2Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 51 meetings on file.

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