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Model picks & player props
MLB
Chase Field, Phoenix
Indoor
Wed 2 Sep 2026, 3:40 PM ET
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Arizona Diamondbacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks and backs Philadelphia Phillies hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $183.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
You bet$10 If it wins$18.33Best price-120
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win53.9%
The price says51.7%

The model graded 70 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $183 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 2 Sep 2026, 3:40 PM ET at Chase Field.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Philadelphia Phillies Lean54% chance -120
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean45% chance Members
Spread Members only High64% chance Members
Pitcher - Walks × 1 prop Highup to 94% Members
Batter - Walks × 10 props Highup to 98% Members
Batter - Home Runs × 3 props Long-shotup to 29% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 3 props Highup to 78% Members
Batter - Hits × 11 props Leanup to 55% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 5 props Highup to 61% Members
Batter - Strikeouts × 1 prop Long-shotup to 37% Members
Batter - Singles × 8 props Highup to 69% Members
Batter - RBIs × 4 props Highup to 83% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 2 props Highup to 66% Members
Batter - Stolen Bases × 1 prop Long-shotup to 8% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks last met on Wed 2 Sep 2026: Arizona Diamondbacks won 1-0. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings
Philadelphia Phillies
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Philadelphia PhilliesMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Philadelphia PhilliesSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Tyler Locklear 1BOut
  • Ryan Thompson RPOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut
Availability updated Sep 28, 7:18PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Andrew Painter PHI Pitcher - Walks
Nolan Arenado STL Batter - Walks
Gabriel Moreno Batter - Home Runs
Jordan Lawlar Batter - Walks
Ildemaro Vargas WSN Batter - Walks

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineArizona DiamondbacksNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF8.6L5 RA4.2Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline form: last five 5-0, 8.6 runs/gm.

Run LineArizona Diamondbacks run lineNo line posted
5-0L5 record
L5 RF8.6L5 RA4.2Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks spread form: last five 5-0, 8.6 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Arizona Diamondbacks total runs form: last five 5-0, 8.6 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsArizona Diamondbacks team totalNo line posted
7.0runs we expect
L5 RF8.6L5 RA4.2Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks team total runs form: last five 5-0, 8.6 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent results

Arizona Diamondbacks have won 3 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

Arizona Diamondbacks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L7–10SDAway
L4–9SDAway
W11–4SDAway
W5–3COLAway
W12–8COLAway
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6ATLAway
W4–3ATLAway
L3–5ATLAway
W7–3TBHome
L1–12TBHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 1.2 runs per game (1-4) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 2.0 (3-2); Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers are allowing 0.8 earned runs per game versus 0.2 for Philadelphia Phillies.

1.2
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
2.0
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesArizona DiamondbacksPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game1.22.0
Hits / game2.03.8
Home runs / game0.00.8
Walks drawn / game0.81.4
Batter K / game2.01.6
Earned runs allowed / game0.80.2
Pitching K / game1.41.6
Walks allowed / game1.60.6
L5 record1-43-2

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Arizona Diamondbacks won 3, Philadelphia Phillies won 3.

DateArizona DiamondbacksPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Sep 217Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 210Arizona Diamondbacks
Sep 112Philadelphia Phillies
Apr 1243Arizona Diamondbacks
Apr 1134Philadelphia Phillies
Apr 1054Arizona Diamondbacks

Who’s out or in doubt

11 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Arizona Diamondbacks
PlayerStatus
Corbin Burnes SPOUT
Tyler Locklear 1BOUT
Ryan Thompson RPOUT
A.J. Puk RPOUT
Andrew Saalfrank RPOUT
Cristian Mena RPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — model preview

Our Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction for September 3, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 3, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies +2 (-417), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Diamondbacks, or as Diamondbacks vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 2 September 2026 at Chase Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks head-to-head record

Final scores · 33 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 17–16 across the last 33 meetings · these games average 9.1 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Wed 2 Sep 2026, Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks: the Phillies won 7-1.

DateGameScoreWinner
2 Sep 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–7Philadelphia Phillies
1 Sep 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–2Philadelphia Phillies
31 Aug 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks1–2Philadelphia Phillies
12 Apr 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies3–4Arizona Diamondbacks
11 Apr 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies4–3Philadelphia Phillies
10 Apr 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies4–5Arizona Diamondbacks
21 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks9–2Arizona Diamondbacks
20 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks4–3Arizona Diamondbacks
19 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks2–8Philadelphia Phillies
4 May 2025Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies9–11Arizona Diamondbacks

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 33 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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