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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Arizona Diamondbacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Sep 1, 2:30AM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

MLB
Chase Field, Phoenix
Indoor
Tue 1 Sep 2026, 1:40AM
20
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Arizona Diamondbacks 0.5 Spread - 1st 5 Innings -145

The model graded 20 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $169 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Tue 1 Sep 2026, 1:40AM at Chase Field.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win60.9%
The price says57.2%
Best price-145
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Arizona Diamondbacks 0.5 High61% chance -145
Spread Long-shot39% chance
Spread - 1st 5 Innings Lean50% chance
Spread High64% chance
Spread - 1st 5 Innings High80% chance
Spread High74% chance
Spread High76% chance
Spread High82% chance
Spread High82% chance
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Best price on this game

Odds checked in the last few minutes · 26 bookmakers compared
Winner
Phillies1.77-130LowVig
Diamondbacks2.25+125William Hill
Total runs
Over7.51.98-102LowVig
Under7.52.00+100Hard Rock Bet

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread - 1st 5 Innings
Arizona Diamondbacks
1.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Arizona DiamondbacksSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpread - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Arizona DiamondbacksSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market sharpened toward Philadelphia Phillies on this game.

Line movement

▲ moved toward Philadelphia Phillies
Exact move size 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Aaron Nola SP

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Zac Gallen SPOut
  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Tommy Troy LFOut
  • Michael Soroka SPOut
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOut
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Blake Walston SPOut
  • Ryan Thompson RPOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut

Probable pitcher

Brandon Pfaadt SP
Availability updated Sep 1, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineArizona DiamondbacksNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Run LineArizona Diamondbacks run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2Free board11-10

Arizona Diamondbacks spread form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Arizona Diamondbacks total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsArizona Diamondbacks team totalNo line posted
0.7runs we expect
L5 RF1.2L5 RA1.4Home L51-4vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks team total runs form: last five 1-4, 1.2 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — what the model found

Our model graded 20 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks — 20 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 20 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 19 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent results

Arizona Diamondbacks have won 3 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 4 of their last 5.

Arizona Diamondbacks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–7SFAway
W10–6SFAway
W7–1SFAway
L1–6SFAway
W5–4CHCHome
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W4–2LAAAway
W5–2LAAAway
W5–3LAAAway
L1–4SEAAway
W6–0SEAAway

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 1.2 runs per game (1-4) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 1.8 (3-2); Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers are allowing 1.4 earned runs per game versus 0.2 for Philadelphia Phillies.

1.2
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
1.8
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesArizona DiamondbacksPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game1.21.8
Hits / game2.23.8
Home runs / game0.00.6
Walks drawn / game0.61.4
Batter K / game2.21.8
Earned runs allowed / game1.40.2
Pitching K / game1.41.6
Walks allowed / game1.60.6
L5 record1-43-2

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent meetings

These two have met 3 times recently: Arizona Diamondbacks won 2, Philadelphia Phillies won 1.

DateArizona DiamondbacksPhiladelphia PhilliesWinner
Apr 1243Arizona Diamondbacks
Apr 1134Philadelphia Phillies
Apr 1054Arizona Diamondbacks

Who’s out or in doubt

18 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Arizona Diamondbacks
PlayerStatus
Zac Gallen SPOUT
Corbin Burnes SPOUT
Tommy Troy LFOUT
Michael Soroka SPOUT
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOUT
Ryne Nelson SPOUT
Blake Walston SPOUT
Ryan Thompson RPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Rafael Marchan COUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — where the money went

Since betting opened on Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, the market has moved toward Philadelphia Phillies across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Spread — Philadelphia Phillies -1.5▲ Money came for this
Spread — Philadelphia Phillies -1▲ Money came for this
Spread — Arizona Diamondbacks 1▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Philadelphia Phillies -1▲ Money came for this
Spread — Arizona Diamondbacks 1▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Arizona Diamondbacks 1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Arizona Diamondbacks▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Philadelphia Phillies▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — model preview

Our Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks prediction for September 1, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 1, 2026 our model has run Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies: Over 5 Total Runs (-625), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Diamondbacks, or as Diamondbacks vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Tuesday 1 September 2026 at Chase Field. The model has generated 20 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 30 meetings on record
Arizona Diamondbacks 16–14 across the last 30 meetings · these games average 9.5 runs (meetings on record since 2023)
DateGameScoreWinner
12 Apr 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies3–4Arizona Diamondbacks
11 Apr 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies4–3Philadelphia Phillies
10 Apr 2026Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies4–5Arizona Diamondbacks
21 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks9–2Arizona Diamondbacks
20 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks4–3Arizona Diamondbacks
19 Sep 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks2–8Philadelphia Phillies
4 May 2025Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies9–11Arizona Diamondbacks
3 May 2025Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies7–2Philadelphia Phillies
2 May 2025Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies3–2Philadelphia Phillies
11 Aug 2024Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks12–5Arizona Diamondbacks

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 30 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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