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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Arizona Diamondbacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:10PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Chase Field, Phoenix
Indoor
Sun 21 Sep 2025, 12:10AM
20
Game Picks
6
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Over 9 (Total Runs)
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB), model win probability 60.8%, fair odds 1.64, book price +135, model edge +18.3%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 21 Sep 2025, 12:10AM at Chase Field.
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Over
11.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Lou Trivino RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Cristopher Sanchez SP

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Corbin Carroll RFDay-to-day
  • Justin Martinez RPOut
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOut
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Jordan Lawlar LFOut
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Michael Soroka SPOut
  • Tommy Troy LFOut
  • Zac Gallen SPOut
  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut
  • Blake Walston SPOut

Probable pitcher

Mitch Bratt SP
Availability updated Jul 21, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 18 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability18 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Gabriel Moreno ARI Batter - Singles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Kyle Schwarber PHI Batter - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bryce Harper PHI Batter - Singles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Harrison Bader MIN Batter - Doubles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Geraldo Perdomo ARI Batter - Doubles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineArizona DiamondbacksNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Run LineArizona Diamondbacks run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.4L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks spread form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Arizona Diamondbacks total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsArizona Diamondbacks team totalNo line posted
2.7implied team total
L5 RF3.4L5 RA2.0Home L54-1vs Philadelphia Phillies L53-2

Arizona Diamondbacks team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.4 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 4.6 runs per game (2-3) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 5.6 (2-3); Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers are allowing 4.6 earned runs per game versus 5.4 for Philadelphia Phillies.

4.6
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
5.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesArizona DiamondbacksPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game4.65.6
Hits / game7.410.2
Home runs / game1.20.6
Walks drawn / game3.83.8
Batter K / game9.28.0
Earned runs allowed / game4.65.4
Pitching K / game9.08.6
Walks allowed / game2.22.8
L5 record2-32-3

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — model preview

<p>Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Arizona Diamondbacks playing Philadelphia Phillies. Includes analysis on key players like Bryce Harper. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies stats and odds.</p>

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies : Over 10.5 Total Runs (+230)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The 'Over 10.5' bet for the Total Runs market in the Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies game is a solid choice considering the teams' recent scoring trends. The Diamondbacks have averaged 4.6 runs in their last five games, while the Phillies have averaged 5.6 runs, combining for an average total of 10.2 runs per game. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have allowed an average of 5.2 runs in their last five games, while the Phillies have allowed 5.8 runs. This suggests a high-scoring game is likely. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have a strong recent home record (4-1), indicating they tend to perform well offensively at home. The high average batting hits for both teams (7.4 for Diamondbacks and 10.2 for Phillies) further support the expectation of a high-scoring game. Therefore, the 'Over 10.5' bet is data-driven and statistically sound.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies : Over 7 Total Runs (-286)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The bet on 'Over 7' for the total runs in the Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies game is statistically justified. The Diamondbacks have an average score of 4.6 runs in their last five games, while the Phillies have an average of 5.6 runs, both well above the line of 7. Additionally, the Diamondbacks' home record is strong, with an average of 4.2 runs scored in their last five home games. The Phillies, although less impressive on the road, still average 1.8 runs away, which combined with the Diamondbacks' home average, exceeds the line. Moreover, both teams' batting averages suggest a high-scoring game, with the Diamondbacks averaging 7.4 hits and the Phillies 10.2. Lastly, both teams have allowed an average of over 5 runs in their last five games, indicating potentially weak defense. These factors collectively suggest a high likelihood of the total runs exceeding 7.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies : Over 6.5 Total Runs (-385)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

The 'Over 6.5' bet in the Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies game is a sound choice based on the teams' recent scoring and defensive performances. The Diamondbacks' average runs scored in their last five games is 4.6, while the Phillies have averaged 5.6 runs. This combined average of 10.2 runs easily surpasses the line of 6.5. Additionally, both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities, with the Diamondbacks allowing an average of 5.2 runs and the Phillies allowing 5.8 runs. This suggests a high-scoring game is likely. Although the Phillies' away scoring average is lower, the Diamondbacks' strong home scoring record of 4.2 runs per game should compensate. The high average bat hits for both teams further support the expectation of a high-scoring game. Therefore, based on these recent performance statistics, the 'Over 6.5' bet is a logical choice.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies : Under 6.5 alternate_team_totals (-435)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The bet on 'Philadelphia Phillies Under 6.5' for the Team Total Runs is a logical choice based on the Phillies' recent performance and the Diamondbacks' defensive records. The Phillies have struggled offensively in their last five away games, averaging only 1.8 runs and 5.8 hits. This is significantly below their overall average of 5.6 runs and 10.2 hits. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have been solid defensively at home, allowing an average of only 2.8 runs in their last five home games. They've also kept their pitching walks to an average of 2.4, further limiting scoring opportunities for the opposing team. Given these stats, it's unlikely that the Phillies will exceed 6.5 runs in this game.

Bryce Harper (PHI) Under 1.5 Singles (-417)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Bryce Harper for Under 1.5 in the Batter Singles market is a statistically sound choice. Harper's averages over the last five games indicate a lower performance when playing away. His average singles when playing away is only 0.4, significantly less than the line of 1.5. His overall batting average is also only 0.8. Even when considering his performance against the Diamondbacks, his average singles is only 1. Despite his impressive current hit streaks, both overall and away, these streaks include all types of hits, not just singles. Therefore, given these stats, it's more likely that Harper will hit under 1.5 singles in the upcoming game against the Diamondbacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies : Under 5.5 alternate_team_totals (-233)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The Phillies' recent performance on the road is a key factor in this bet. Their average runs scored in their last five away games is only 1.8, well below the line of 5.5. Additionally, their batting average on the road is significantly lower than their overall average (5.8 vs 10.2). This suggests they struggle to generate offense when playing away from home. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks have been effective in limiting runs at home, with an average of only 2.8 runs allowed in their last five home games. This further supports the likelihood of the Phillies scoring under 5.5 runs. Therefore, based on these statistics, betting on the Phillies to score under 5.5 runs is a solid choice.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 21 September 2025 at Chase Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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