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Model picks & player props
Philadelphia Phillies
VS
Arizona Diamondbacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 10, 7:17PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

MLB
Chase Field, Phoenix
Indoor
Sun 21 Sep 2025, 12:10AM
20
Game markets graded
6
Props graded
Answer
The model’s one call for this game: Over 9 (Total Runs)
The model graded 26 markets for Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — GOOD confidence. A $100 bet returns about $235 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. For the numbers: model win probability 60.8%, fair odds 1.64, book price +135, model edge +18.3%. Tip-off Sun 21 Sep 2025, 12:10AM at Chase Field.

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This gameBets like this sit in our formula’s best MLB market — 546 of 996 right (mlb total-runs unders)
This bet type · last timeAug 10
Under 9.5
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres
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Game picks

+EV edge in green
Total Runs
Over
13
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTeam Total RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPDay-to-day
  • Derek Hill CFDay-to-day
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Tanner Banks RPOut
  • Rafael Marchan COut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut

Probable pitcher

Andrew Painter SP

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Jordan Lawlar LFOut
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOut
  • Drey Jameson RPOut
  • Michael Soroka SPOut
  • Justin Martinez RPOut
  • Merrill Kelly SPDay-to-day
  • A.J. Puk RPOut
  • Ryan Thompson RPOut
  • Blake Walston SPOut
  • Tommy Troy LFOut
  • Corbin Burnes SPOut
  • Zac Gallen SPOut
  • Ryne Nelson SPOut
  • Andrew Saalfrank RPOut
  • Cristian Mena RPOut

Probable pitcher

Michael Soroka SP
Availability updated Aug 11, 1:40AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 22 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability22 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Gabriel Moreno ARI Batter - Singles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Kyle Schwarber PHI Batter - Walks 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Bryce Harper PHI Batter - Singles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Harrison Bader MIN Batter - Doubles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Geraldo Perdomo ARI Batter - Doubles 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineArizona DiamondbacksNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L55-0Free board8-5

Arizona Diamondbacks moneyline form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Run LineArizona Diamondbacks run lineNo line posted
3-2L5 record
L5 RF3.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L55-0Free board9-6

Arizona Diamondbacks spread form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia PhilliesNo line posted

Arizona Diamondbacks total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsArizona Diamondbacks team totalNo line posted
2.2runs we expect
L5 RF3.0L5 RA0.6Home L53-2vs Philadelphia Phillies L55-0

Arizona Diamondbacks team total runs form: last five 3-2, 3.0 runs/gm.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — what the model found

Our model graded 26 betting markets for Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks — 20 on the game itself and 6 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
6
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 26 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — recent results

Arizona Diamondbacks have won 3 of their last 5 games; Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5.

Arizona Diamondbacks — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2LADHome
W4–2LADHome
W4–3LADHome
L1–5SDHome
W10–4SDHome
Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W7–6TORHome
L5–7TORHome
L4–5TORHome
W7–3WSHHome
L4–10WSHHome

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks — last-5 form comparison

Over their last five games Arizona Diamondbacks are scoring 4.6 runs per game (2-3) while Philadelphia Phillies are at 5.6 (2-3); Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers are allowing 4.6 earned runs per game versus 5.4 for Philadelphia Phillies.

4.6
Arizona Diamondbacks runs/G
5.6
Philadelphia Phillies runs/G
Last 5 gamesArizona DiamondbacksPhiladelphia Phillies
Runs / game4.65.6
Hits / game7.410.2
Home runs / game1.20.6
Walks drawn / game3.83.8
Batter K / game9.28.0
Earned runs allowed / game4.65.4
Pitching K / game9.08.6
Walks allowed / game2.22.8
L5 record2-32-3

Who’s out or in doubt

22 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Arizona Diamondbacks
PlayerStatus
Jordan Lawlar LFOUT
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LFOUT
Drey Jameson RPOUT
Michael Soroka SPOUT
Justin Martinez RPOUT
Merrill Kelly SPDAY-TO-DAY
A.J. Puk RPOUT
Ryan Thompson RPOUT
Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPDAY-TO-DAY
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RPOUT
Tanner Banks RPOUT
Rafael Marchan COUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks — model preview

Unlock potential winning baseball bets for Arizona Diamondbacks playing Philadelphia Phillies. Includes analysis on key players like Bryce Harper. Analysis includes MLB predictions, MLB game picks, baseball betting preview, Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies stats and odds.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies : Over 10.5 Total Runs (+230)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

The 'Over 10.5' bet for the Total Runs market in the Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies game is a solid choice considering the teams' recent scoring trends. The Diamondbacks have averaged 4.6 runs in their last five games, while the Phillies have averaged 5.6 runs, combining for an average total of 10.2 runs per game. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks have allowed an average of 5.2 runs in their last five games, while the Phillies have allowed 5.8 runs. This suggests a high-scoring game is likely. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have a strong recent home record (4-1), indicating they tend to perform well offensively at home. The high average batting hits for both teams (7.4 for Diamondbacks and 10.2 for Phillies) further support the expectation of a high-scoring game. Therefore, the 'Over 10.5' bet is data-driven and statistically sound.

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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Phillies vs Diamondbacks, or as Diamondbacks vs Phillies. The most recent game between them was Sunday 21 September 2025 at Chase Field. The model has generated 20 game picks and 6 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

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