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The latest Bet Better model pick for Trea Turner is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits.
On the Batter - Hits market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +22.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 18, 9:09AM UTC
MLB

Trea Turner

WSN

+22.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Hits Under 1.5 -238 (1.42)
+22.9% Edge
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 8:05PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
93.3%
Implied Probability
70.4%
Model Edge
+22.9%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Hits93.3%—70.4%1.07+22.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Trea Turner (WSN) Under 1.5 Hits (-238)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As the Phillies host the Mets on July 18, all eyes will be on Trea Turner and his ability to find success at the plate. However, recent trends suggest that he might struggle to collect more than one hit in this matchup. Turner has faced a tough Mets pitching staff that’s been particularly stingy lately, limiting opponents to a mere .220 batting average. Moreover, Turner’s recent form doesn’t inspire confidence; he’s been hitting under .250 over the last two weeks, indicating he's not quite in his groove. The Mets’ starter, with his ability to rack up strikeouts, could make it even tougher for Turner to find his rhythm, especially given how he typically fares against right-handed pitchers. With the odds heavily favoring the ‘Under 1.5’ hits, this matchup seems primed for a low-output performance from Turner. Keep your expectations in check; a quiet night might be on the horizon.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

2 markets live
Batter - HitsUpcoming gameU 1.5 -238+22.9% edge
Game log vs U 1.51 / 7 hit
2222213

Trea Turner MLB hits. Current line U 1.5 at -238 (+22.9% model edge).

Batter - Total BasesUpcoming gameU 1.5 -133+28.3% edge
70%hit L10
Streak2L2070%

Trea Turner MLB total bases: cleared under 1.5 in 70% of the last 10 games. Current line U 1.5 at -133 (+28.3% model edge).

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Trea Turner MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
80%hit L10
L2080%
O 0.580%
O 1.540%
O 2.530%
O 3.530%
O 4.520%

Trea Turner MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 80% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%
O 1.510%

Trea Turner MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
60%hit L10
L2060%
O 0.560%
O 1.520%

Trea Turner MLB runs scored: cleared over 0.5 in 60% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Trea Turner MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
12 Jul 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -169 ✓ HIT
10 Jul 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Detroit Tigers Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -154 ✗ MISS
06 Jul 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -213 ✓ HIT
02 Jul 26 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Hits — — — Pending
30 Jun 26 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Hits — — — Pending
29 Jun 26 Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies Batter - Hits — — — Pending

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About This Player

Trea Turner (WSN) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Trea Turner is Under 1.5 on Batter - Hits. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +22.9% on this pick. Their next game is New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday 18 July at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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