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The latest Bet Better model pick for Brandon Marsh is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases.
On the Batter - Total Bases market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 62%, for a model edge of +8.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current MLB schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:31PM UTC
MLB

Brandon Marsh

LAA

+8.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Batter - Total Bases Under 1.5 -164 (1.61)
+8.2% Edge
Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals
Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri · Outdoor
Mon 6 Jul, 6:10PM
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
70.3%
Implied Probability
62.1%
Model Edge
+8.2%
Predicted Value
—

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Batter - Total Bases70.3%—62.1%1.42+8.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Brandon Marsh (LAA) Under 1.5 Total Bases (-164)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

As we dive into Monday’s matchup between the Royals and the Phillies, all eyes should be on Brandon Marsh’s total bases prop. While he’s shown flashes of brilliance this season, recent trends suggest he might struggle to reach the 1.5 total bases mark. Facing a Royals pitching staff that's been quietly effective, Marsh finds himself up against a right-hander who has kept left-handed bats in check. Moreover, Marsh’s performance over the last few weeks has been inconsistent, often falling short against quality pitching. With the Phillies also battling through a rough patch offensively, it’s likely we’ll see a lower-scoring affair. Considering the model’s prediction of just 1.14 total bases for Marsh, betting the under feels like a prudent move. The odds align with his recent performance trends, making this a compelling play as we watch the action unfold in Kansas City.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Batter - HitsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%
O 1.510%

Brandon Marsh MLB hits: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - Total BasesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 1.520%
O 2.520%
O 3.520%
O 4.510%

Brandon Marsh MLB total basesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Home RunsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.520%

Brandon Marsh MLB home runsseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
50%hit L10
O 0.550%
O 1.540%
O 2.540%
O 3.510%

Brandon Marsh MLB hits + runs + rbis: cleared over 0.5 in 50% of the last 10 games. Season and recent-form profile.

Batter - RBIsSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Brandon Marsh MLB rbisseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - Runs ScoredSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Brandon Marsh MLB runs scoredseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - SinglesSeason & recent formNo line posted
O 0.540%

Brandon Marsh MLB singlesseason and recent-form profile.

Batter - WalksSeason & recent formNo line posted
0.2avg walks · L5

Brandon Marsh MLB walks: averaging 0.2 walks over the last 5. Season and recent-form profile.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Jul 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals Batter - Total Bases 1.5 Under -164 ✗ MISS
23 Jun 26 Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals Batter - Hits 1.5 Under -263 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Brandon Marsh (LAA) is tracked by the Bet Better model for MLB player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brandon Marsh is Under 1.5 on Batter - Total Bases. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.2% on this pick. Their next game is Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals on Monday 6 July at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your MLB betting strategy.

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