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Model picks & player props
MLB
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
Outdoor
Sun 27 Sep 2026, 3:05 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays
VS
Philadelphia Phillies

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 70 markets for Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies and backs Over 9.5 hardest, a long shot, and $100 on it returns about $350.

20
Game markets graded
50
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Over 9.5 total runs
Over 9.5 Total Runs
You bet$10 If it wins$35.00Best price+250
Our confidenceLong-shot
Chance to win29.5%
The price says29.8%

The model graded 70 markets for Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB) and this is the one it backs hardest — a long shot. A $100 bet returns about $350 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sun 27 Sep 2026, 3:05 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Runs Over 9.5 Long-shot29% chance +250
Total Runs Members only Long-shot33% chance Members
Moneyline - 1st 5 Innings Members only Lean41% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 5 Innings Members only Long-shot14% chance Members
Total Runs - 1st 1 Innings Members only Lean49% chance Members
Batter - Walks × 8 props Leanup to 48% Members
Pitcher - Outs × 3 props Highup to 61% Members
Batter - Runs Scored × 3 props Highup to 89% Members
Batter - Total Bases × 5 props Highup to 65% Members
Batter - Hits + Runs + RBIs × 5 props Leanup to 58% Members
Pitcher - Strikeouts × 2 props Leanup to 42% Members
Batter - Strikeouts × 9 props Long-shotup to 36% Members
Batter - RBIs × 6 props Highup to 86% Members
Batter - Hits × 2 props Leanup to 60% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies last met on Sun 27 Sep 2026: Philadelphia Phillies won 7-3. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every MLB game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Runs
Over
9.5
+ 19 more markets
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All 20 game markets and 50 player props for this matchup — every line, every call the model backs — plus every pick across the slate. Join 68,094+ members.

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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tampa Bay RaysMoneyline - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 5 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal RunsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverTotal Runs - 1st 1 InningsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Shane McClanahan SPOut
  • Jacob Melton LFOut
  • Gavin Lux LFOut
  • Edwin Uceta RPOut
  • Jonathan Heasley RPOut
  • Ryan Pepiot SPOut

Probable pitcher

Griffin Jax SP

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Caleb Kilian RPOut
  • Felix Reyes LFOut
  • Brad Keller RPOut
  • Johan Rojas CFOut
  • Adolis Garcia RFOut
Availability updated Oct 15, 5:00PM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies: Ballpark wind and temperature can swing the run total, though the live per-park feed isn't wired into this page yet, and 11 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Ballpark weatherWind and temperature at the park move run totals, but our ballpark weather module is pending a file-to-table persistence job.
Availability11 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

General rule: wind blowing out and warm air help the ball carry (more runs and home runs), while wind in and cold air suppress scoring; the starting pitchers listed above are the single biggest driver of the run total.

Ballpark weather module pending a file-to-table persistence job (owner). We won't show a wind/temperature number until it's persisted to the database.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Bryson Stott PHI Batter - Walks
Nick Martinez SDP Pitcher - Outs
Victor Mesa Jr. TBR Batter - Runs Scored
Junior Caminero Batter - Runs Scored
Kyle Schwarber PHI Batter - Walks

+ 50 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylinePhiladelphia PhilliesNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs Tampa Bay Rays L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies moneyline form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Run LinePhiladelphia Phillies run lineNo line posted
1-4L5 record
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs Tampa Bay Rays L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies spread form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Total RunsGame total · Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay RaysNo line posted

Philadelphia Phillies total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Team Total RunsPhiladelphia Phillies team totalNo line posted
3.1runs we expect
L5 RF2.4L5 RA5.4Home L52-3vs Tampa Bay Rays L52-3

Philadelphia Phillies team total runs form: last five 1-4, 2.4 runs/gm.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies — what the model found

Our model graded 70 betting markets for Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies — 20 on the game itself and 50 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
50
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 70 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 69 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent results

Philadelphia Phillies have won 2 of their last 5 games; Tampa Bay Rays have won 4 of their last 5.

Philadelphia Phillies — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L2–6ATLAway
W4–3ATLAway
L3–5ATLAway
W7–3TBHome
L1–12TBHome
Tampa Bay Rays — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W3–1CLEHome
L3–7CLEHome
W4–3NYYAway
W5–2NYYHome
W1–0NYYHome

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies — recent meetings

These two have met 6 times recently: Philadelphia Phillies won 2, Tampa Bay Rays won 4.

DatePhiladelphia PhilliesTampa Bay RaysWinner
Sep 2773Philadelphia Phillies
Sep 26112Tampa Bay Rays
Sep 2502Tampa Bay Rays
Mar 2307Tampa Bay Rays
Mar 1982Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 313Tampa Bay Rays

Who’s out or in doubt

11 players are listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Philadelphia Phillies
PlayerStatus
Caleb Kilian RPOUT
Felix Reyes LFOUT
Brad Keller RPOUT
Johan Rojas CFOUT
Adolis Garcia RFOUT
Tampa Bay Rays
PlayerStatus
Shane McClanahan SPOUT
Jacob Melton LFOUT
Gavin Lux LFOUT
Edwin Uceta RPOUT
Jonathan Heasley RPOUT
Ryan Pepiot SPOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies — model preview

Our Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies prediction for September 27, 2026, plus every bet we like in the game and how confident we are in each.

On September 27, 2026 our model has run Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Yandy Diaz (TBR) Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-312), which we rate HIGH confidence. We walk through all 6 bets we like in this game below. Everything below is our own number against the price the book is offering, written in plain English with how confident we are in words.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 6 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies in the MLB. You may also see this matchup written as Rays vs Phillies, or as Phillies vs Rays. The most recent game between them was Sunday 27 September 2026 at Citizens Bank Park. The model has generated 20 game picks and 50 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your MLB betting strategy for this matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies head-to-head record

Final scores · 23 meetings on record
Philadelphia Phillies 13–10 across the last 23 meetings · these games average 8.4 runs (meetings on record since 2023)

Last meeting: Sun 27 Sep 2026, Tampa Bay Rays at Philadelphia Phillies: the Phillies won 7-3.

DateGameScoreWinner
27 Sep 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies7–3Philadelphia Phillies
26 Sep 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies1–12Tampa Bay Rays
25 Sep 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies0–2Tampa Bay Rays
23 Mar 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies0–7Tampa Bay Rays
19 Mar 2026Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies8–2Philadelphia Phillies
3 Mar 2026Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays3–1Tampa Bay Rays
8 May 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays6–7Philadelphia Phillies
7 May 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays0–7Philadelphia Phillies
6 May 2025Philadelphia Phillies @ Tampa Bay Rays4–8Philadelphia Phillies
24 Mar 2025Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies8–6Philadelphia Phillies

Table shows the last 10 — the record above counts all 23 meetings on file.

Today's selected board

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