Here are our EPL picks for Friday 18 September 2026. Our model likes 8 bets here. The one it likes most is Joel Latibeaudiere (Coventry City) Over 0.5 Shots, priced at +200 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Looking for the best Premier League picks for same-game parlays this weekend? Here are the 5 multis our model likes most for the upcoming round, built only from legs where our number beats the price.

Joel Latibeaudiere (Coventry City) Over 0.5 Shots (+200)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

In Saturday's clash between Nottingham Forest and Coventry City, keep an eye on Joel Latibeaudiere for an intriguing prop bet on him to have over 0.5 total shots. While his recent averages may not jump off the page, there’s a compelling narrative at play. Latibeaudiere's away form shows he’s more willing to take risks—averaging 0.4 shots per game on the road. Nottingham Forest’s defense has been vulnerable, allowing plenty of opportunities for opposing attackers. Given that Latibeaudiere has hit the target in 5 of his last 11 away outings, this makes his odds for finding at least one shot quite enticing. With a projected edge suggesting a solid chance of success, this bet feels like an opportunity waiting to be seized. Keep your eyes peeled for Latibeaudiere to surprise at the City Ground; one shot could very well be on the horizon!

Joel Latibeaudiere (Coventry City) Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+1000)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Coventry City heads to Nottingham Forest, keep an eye on Joel Latibeaudiere for an intriguing prop bet on Over 0.5 shots on target. While his recent form may seem lackluster, with an average of just 0.2 shots overall and 0.4 away, there’s more than meets the eye. Latibeaudiere is a defender who occasionally joins the attack, and in a game where Coventry will likely need to push for goals, his chances to unleash a shot could increase dramatically. The matchup against Nottingham Forest might present opportunities for him to exploit gaps, especially if Forest focuses on containing Coventry’s forwards. With an implied probability that hints at a potential undervaluation of his attacking threat, this bet could pay off. In a league notorious for surprises, Latibeaudiere could just surprise us all with a timely shot on target, making this an enticing wager to consider.

Joel Latibeaudiere (Coventry City) Over 1.5 Shots (+1500)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Coventry City prepares to face Nottingham Forest, all eyes should be on Joel Latibeaudiere. While his recent shot averages might seem modest—just 0.2 overall and 0.4 away—it’s important to consider the context. Nottingham Forest's defense has shown vulnerabilities, particularly in allowing opposing full-backs to advance. Latibeaudiere, known for his ability to contribute in attack, might just find himself in positions to unleash a few attempts. Moreover, with Coventry likely to seek an early edge in a tough away fixture, we could see Latibeaudiere pushing forward more than usual. The tactical demands of this matchup could push his shot count beyond the 1.5 mark. While his recent form is a concern, this game presents an opportunity for him to break free. With a sprinkle of confidence and an aggressive approach, Latibeaudiere could surprise us all and exceed expectations.

Brentford vs Chelsea: Brentford +0.5 Goal Handicap (-179)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Brentford prepares to host Chelsea, the recent form tilts the scales in their favor. The Bees may have only one win in their last five home matches, but they’ve averaged a respectable 1.8 goals at home, while Chelsea has struggled away, conceding an average of 2 goals per game over the same span. With Brentford’s attacking prowess reflected in their impressive shot statistics—averaging nearly 16 shots per game at home—they're bound to capitalize on Chelsea’s leaky defense. Despite Chelsea's overall stronger squad, their away form has been inconsistent, often failing to convert pressure into goals. Given that Brentford boasts a solid home advantage, I’m convinced they’ll at least draw here. Betting on Brentford at -0.5 offers a promising angle, especially as they look to turn the tables after a disheartening record against Chelsea. The stage is set for an upset.

Brentford vs Chelsea: Brentford +0.25 Goal Handicap (-141)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Brentford prepares to host Chelsea, there's a compelling case for putting your money on the Bees with a 0.25 handicap. Despite a rocky start this season, Brentford has been more than competitive at home, averaging 1.8 goals scored while conceding only 0.6 in their last five at the Gtech Community Stadium. Their attacking output is underscored by a significant average of 15.8 shots per game, hinting at a strong offensive rhythm. Conversely, Chelsea's away form is shaky; they’ve found the net just 1.2 times per game on the road, and their defense has leaked 2 goals to opponents. With Brentford's recent improvement in home performances and Chelsea's inconsistency, it’s a ripe opportunity for the hosts. The Bees might just surprise their London rivals, making the handicap bet on Brentford an enticing prospect.

Everton vs Ipswich Town: Over 6.5 Total Corners (-714)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Everton welcomes Ipswich Town, the stage is set for a corner-fest. Despite Everton’s recent struggles at home, averaging a solid 5 corners in their last five matches, they’re generating a flurry of opportunities with 13.6 shots per game. Ipswich, on the other hand, is equally dynamic, racking up around 13.2 shots away from home while also conceding a fair share. With both teams keen to push forward, we can expect a high corner count. Everton’s need to spark their attack, paired with Ipswich’s tendency to defend deep, should lead to numerous corner kicks. In their last five encounters, they’ve been involved in games that frequently surpass this line. Given the teams’ current forms and attacking styles, betting on over 6.5 corners feels like a smart move. Expect the flags to be waving!

Manchester City vs Sunderland: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-455)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Manchester City prepares to host Sunderland, the stage is set for a matchup where goals may be at a premium. City’s last five home fixtures have averaged just 2 goals, and they've been quite dominant defensively, allowing a mere 0.6 goals per game on their turf. With an impressive 4-0-1 record, they've stifled opponents effectively, showcasing an average of 1.8 scored while allowing only 0.8 against. On the flip side, Sunderland’s away form has been inconsistent, netting just 1.8 goals per game but struggling to convert opportunities. Their recent xG stats reflect a similar narrative, suggesting a lack of clinical finishing. Given this context, betting on 'Under 4.5' total goals feels like a prudent choice, particularly with Manchester's focus on solidifying their defense and Sunderland's challenges in breaking through. Expect a cagey affair where the goals may just not flow as freely as some might hope.

Manchester City vs Sunderland: Under 3.5 Total Goals (-185)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Manchester City prepares to host Sunderland, the trends and statistics paint a compelling picture for an "Under 3.5" total goals bet. City has been a fortress at home, averaging just 1.8 goals per game while allowing a mere 0.6. Their last five fixtures suggest a calculated approach, with an impressive defensive record—surrendering only 0.8 xG to opponents. Sunderland, on the road, has struggled to find the net, averaging just 1 goal and posting an xG that mirrors their low-scoring output. With City’s solid home defense and Sunderland's lack of attacking prowess, it’s hard to see this match becoming a high-scoring affair. Both teams seem to favor a more cautious game, making the under an enticing option as they battle for crucial points in a tightly contested Premier League clash. Expect a tactical showdown with fewer than four goals lining up as the likely outcome.

That is the model's read on today's EPL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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