Here are our EPL picks for Friday 18 September 2026. Our model likes 7 bets here. The one it likes most is Joel Latibeaudiere (Coventry City) Over 0.5 Shots, priced at +200 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Looking for the best Premier League picks for same-game parlays this weekend? Here are the 5 multis our model likes most for the upcoming round, built only from legs where our number beats the price.

Joel Latibeaudiere (Coventry City) Over 0.5 Shots (+200)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Coventry City gears up to face Nottingham Forest, keep an eye on Joel Latibeaudiere for a clever bet on him to take over 0.5 shots. While his overall average sits at just 0.2, he has shown a hint of promise away from home, posting a 0.4 average in his last five outings. This slight uptick suggests that when the stakes are high, he’s more willing to pull the trigger. The model’s prediction of 0.46, combined with a hit rate of 5 out of his last 11 away games, hints that the odds are in our favor. With Nottingham Forest’s defense sometimes letting players slip through, Latibeaudiere could find those fleeting opportunities. Given that the implied probability stands at 33.3%, there’s value here, especially at a tasty price of 3. So, let’s ride the wave and back Latibeaudiere to break through with at least one shot!

Joel Latibeaudiere (Coventry City) Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+1000)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Coventry City gears up to face Nottingham Forest, keep a keen eye on Joel Latibeaudiere's potential to make his mark. While his recent stats might not scream "goal threat" – averaging just 0.2 shots on target overall and 0.4 away – the context of this matchup offers a tantalizing opportunity. Latibeaudiere’s role in the team is evolving, and with Forest’s defensive vulnerabilities, he could find himself in positions to unleash shots. The stats indicate a growing trend; even a slight uptick could see him comfortably surpass the 0.5 shots on target line. Moreover, with Coventry likely to see more of the ball in this encounter, Latibeaudiere may capitalize on any openings. A sprinkle on the Over 0.5 shots on target feels like a savvy play, especially with the odds stacked in our favor. This could be his moment to break free and make an impact!

Joel Latibeaudiere (Coventry City) Over 1.5 Shots (+1600)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Coventry City heads to Nottingham Forest, all eyes should be on Joel Latibeaudiere, especially in the Total Shots market. While he may not be a household name, his recent performances hint at untapped potential. In his last five away games, Latibeaudiere has been averaging 0.4 shots, a modest figure but with room for growth in a more attacking role. The match against Forest, who often leave spaces when pushing forward, could provide him with opportunities to take shots. Coventry's need for a balanced attack might push Latibeaudiere into more advanced positions, allowing him to challenge that 1.5 shots line. The implied probability might seem low, but in a game where every player is looking to make an impact, he could surprise us. Betting on him to go over 1.5 shots could just be the move to capitalize on an underdog’s chance to shine.

Brentford vs Chelsea: Under 4.5 Total Goals (-345)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Brentford welcomes Chelsea, the under 4.5 total goals line is tempting given recent trends. Despite Brentford's inconsistent form at home, averaging just 1.6 goals in their last five outings, they've managed to keep opponents to an average of only 1 goal against. Moreover, the Bees' xG numbers are strikingly low, indicating a struggle to convert chances into goals. Chelsea, while capable of scoring, has also seen their away performances fluctuate. They’ve netted an average of 1.2 goals in their last five away matches, often finding it tough against well-organized defenses. With both teams struggling to create clear-cut chances—evident from their low xG averages—the likelihood of a high-scoring affair diminishes significantly. Given that recent encounters between these sides have also leaned towards lower-scoring outcomes, backing the under seems like a savvy play in this tightly contested London clash.

Everton vs Ipswich Town: Over 6.5 Total Corners (-714)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Everton welcomes Ipswich Town, expect a flurry of corners. Everton's home matches have seen an uptick in corner activity, averaging around 2.4 corners per game in their last five at Goodison Park. Meanwhile, Ipswich, with their own aggressive approach, has been racking up about 2.6 corners per away match. Both teams have demonstrated an inclination to push forward, leading to increased corner counts. Everton's recent struggles, only winning once in their last five, may force them into a more attacking mindset to secure points, heightening corner stakes. Ipswich's solid away form, bagging three wins out of five, will only amplify their forward momentum. All signs point to a match that should comfortably surpass that 6.5 corner mark, especially with both teams eager to exploit every attacking opportunity. So, betting on the over here feels like a savvy play.

Manchester City vs Sunderland: Sunderland +2 Goal Handicap (-196)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Manchester City gears up to face Sunderland, the numbers tell a compelling story. While City boasts an impressive home record, winning four of their last five fixtures, their recent form against Sunderland is a bit more mixed—one win and one draw in the last two encounters. On the flip side, Sunderland has shown resilience, managing two draws in their last five outings, particularly against tougher opponents. When we consider expected goals (xG), City’s home xG average remains strong at 2.0, yet they’ve allowed 0.6 from opponents during the same stretch. Sunderland’s away form has been decent, averaging 1.8 goals per game against teams like City. Given these trends, a handicap of +2 for Sunderland feels like a savvy play. They have the capacity to hold their own and could well cover this line, making it an intriguing prospect for bettors.

Manchester City vs Sunderland: Sunderland +1.75 Goal Handicap (-141)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

As Manchester City gears up to host Sunderland, the odds might seem stacked against the Black Cats, but let’s delve a bit deeper. City’s formidable home record of 4-0-1 is impressive, yet Sunderland’s recent form shows they’ve managed to score consistently, averaging 1.8 goals in their last five away games. What’s more telling are the Expected Goals (xG) figures. While City has been solid defensively, they’ve also occasionally struggled to convert their chances into goals, particularly against well-organized defenses like Sunderland’s. With the handicap set at 1.75, there's a strong case for Sunderland to keep it close. Given City’s recent tendency to underperform against mid-table teams, siding with Sunderland to cover the spread feels like a smart play. They’ve shown resilience, and with their recent scoring form, they could just surprise the hosts at the Etihad.

That is the model's read on today's EPL card. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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