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AFL

Charlie Curnow

Sydney Swans

Value call

Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans) has one live pick today: over 1.5 goals that pays $140 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
64 in 100
Predicted
2.7 goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 64.3% · before adjusting for past results 76.0% · the book's price implies 71.4% · gap -7.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Charlie Curnow
over 1.5 goals
Goals Over 1.5 -250 (1.40) · $100→$140
Value call
HIGHWins about 64 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.00 Odds-250
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Charlie Curnow is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 64 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 64%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 16, 8:08PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals76.0%64.3%71.4%1.56+4.6%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Charlie Curnow Over 1.5 Goals (-250)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Charlie Curnow has been on a roll lately, and playing at the SCG gives him a good chance to shine. Our numbers show he's likely to score over 1.5 goals in this game against the Fremantle Dockers, as he's been averaging more than that recently. Plus, the Dockers have struggled with their defense, which might give Charlie more opportunities to find the goal. The biggest concern is that both teams are closely matched, so it could be a tight game. However, with Charlie's recent form and the Dockers' defensive issues, this bet looks promising. Just remember, nothing is guaranteed in sports!

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Charlie Curnow averaged 12.1 disposals, 2.7 goals and 6.0 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

12.1
Disposals
2.7
Goals
6.0
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (11 Aug 24 vs Hawthorn), Charlie Curnow recorded 2 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
11 Aug 24Hawthorn2120
3 Aug 24Collingwood9052
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide19392
21 Jul 24North Melbourne15491
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs153100
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS8130
30 Jun 24Richmond7230
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats13523
9 Jun 24Essendon11250
30 May 24Port Adelaide9372
Quick answers:How many disposals does Charlie Curnow average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Goals 1.5 Over -250 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Goals 1.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Goals 1.5 Over -345 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals — — — Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals — — — Pending
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Charlie Curnow is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.6% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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