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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Charlie Curnow is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +0.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:07PM UTC
AFL

Charlie Curnow

Sydney Swans

+0.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -769 (1.13)
+0.1% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
88.6%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+0.1%
Predicted Value
2.5 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals88.6%88.5%1.13+0.1%

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AI Analysis

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Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans) Over 1.5 Goals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a goal scorer, Charlie Curnow stands out like a shining star under the Sydney night sky. With a scorching streak of 3 consecutive home games finding the big sticks, Curnow's goal-scoring prowess is in full swing. Averaging a red-hot 3.6 goals per game in his last 5 home fixtures, he's been a nightmare for opposing defenders. His keen eye for goal is backed by a solid 50.7% accuracy, ensuring he makes every opportunity count. Add in his impressive 8.2 score involvements and 6.6 shots on target per game, and you have a player hungry to snag more goals. Facing the Adelaide Crows, a team he's averaged 5 goals against in his last 5 home matchups, Curnow is primed to split the middle and deliver another goal-scoring masterclass. Bet on Curnow to go Over 1.5 goals with confidence.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 4(75%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
2.4avg goals recent
Season best5
Goals last 10avg 2.4 · hi 5 · lo 0
3252134301

Charlie Curnow has a goals high of 5 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals 1.5 Over -769 ✗ MISS
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Goals 1.5 Over -435 ✓ HIT
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Goals 1.5 Over -667 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Sydney Swans @ Port Adelaide Power Goals Pending

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About This Player

Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Charlie Curnow is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.1% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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