Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Charlie Curnow is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +0.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:22PM UTC
AFL

Charlie Curnow

Sydney Swans

+0.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+0.1% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
88.6%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+0.1%
Predicted Value
2.5 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals88.6%88.5%1.13+0.1%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans) Over 1.5 Goals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking ahead to the clash between the Sydney Swans and Port Adelaide Power, all eyes are on Charlie Curnow to make his mark at the SCG. With a stellar average of 3.4 goals in his last five home games, Curnow has been a scoring machine, regularly finding himself in the right positions to snag goals. His accuracy, averaging at 47.4%, combined with an impressive 5.8 shots at goal per game, showcases his ability to convert opportunities into points. Moreover, his recent form against Port Adelaide has been even more promising, averaging 3.7 goals in their last five encounters at home. With a solid hit rate in his overall performance, including a streak of 2 successful games, Curnow is primed to continue his scoring spree and surpass the 1.5 goal mark this time around. Betting on Charlie Curnow to go over 1.5 goals looks like a smart play given his recent form and historical success against the Power.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
2.4avg goals recent
Season best5
Goals last 10avg 2.4 · hi 5 · lo 0
3252134301

Charlie Curnow has a goals high of 5 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Goals 1.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Goals 1.5 Over -417 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals 1.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals Pending
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Goals Pending
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Goals Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Charlie Curnow is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.1% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.