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The latest Bet Better model pick for Charlie Curnow is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 64 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 64%, the price says 72%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 22, 6:08PM UTC
AFL

Charlie Curnow

Sydney Swans

Value call

Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans) has one live pick today: Goals Over 1.5 that pays $139 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -256 (1.39) · $100→$139
Value call
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
64 in 100
Predicted
2.7 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 64.3% · before adjusting for past results 76.0% · the book's price implies 71.9% · gap -7.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals76.0%64.3%71.9%1.56+4.1%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Charlie Curnow Over 1.5 Goals (-256)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

At the SCG, Charlie Curnow is set to shine. The Sydney Swans have been on fire lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games and usually coming out ahead by over 26 points. Curnow has been a key part of their success, and with the Swans averaging more than 57 points before half-time in recent matches, he has plenty of chances to score. Fremantle has also been strong, winning 7 out of their last 10, but their average points before half-time is much lower at around 44.6. That means Curnow could find space to rack up goals, especially since our numbers see him as a strong favorite to score over 1.5 goals. The closest risk is that both teams are playing well, so it could be a tighter game than expected.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Charlie Curnow averaged 12.1 disposals, 2.7 goals and 6.0 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

12.1
Disposals
2.7
Goals
6.0
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (11 Aug 24 vs Hawthorn), Charlie Curnow recorded 2 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
11 Aug 24Hawthorn2120
3 Aug 24Collingwood9052
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide19392
21 Jul 24North Melbourne15491
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs153100
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS8130
30 Jun 24Richmond7230
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats13523
9 Jun 24Essendon11250
30 May 24Port Adelaide9372
Quick answers:How many disposals does Charlie Curnow average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Goals 1.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Goals 1.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Goals 1.5 Over -385 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals — — — Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals — — — Pending
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Charlie Curnow is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.1% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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