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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Charlie Curnow is Over 1.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 89 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 89%, implied 88%, edge +0.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 8:48PM UTC
AFL

Charlie Curnow

Sydney Swans

+0.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 1.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+0.1% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
2.5 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 88.6% · the book's price implies 88.5% · gap +0.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals88.6%88.5%1.13+0.1%

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AI Analysis

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Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans) Over 1.5 Goals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking ahead to the clash between the Sydney Swans and Port Adelaide Power, all eyes are on Charlie Curnow to make his mark at the SCG. With a stellar average of 3.4 goals in his last five home games, Curnow has been a scoring machine, regularly finding himself in the right positions to snag goals. His accuracy, averaging at 47.4%, combined with an impressive 5.8 shots at goal per game, showcases his ability to convert opportunities into points. Moreover, his recent form against Port Adelaide has been even more promising, averaging 3.7 goals in their last five encounters at home. With a solid hit rate in his overall performance, including a streak of 2 successful games, Curnow is primed to continue his scoring spree and surpass the 1.5 goal mark this time around. Betting on Charlie Curnow to go over 1.5 goals looks like a smart play given his recent form and historical success against the Power.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Charlie Curnow averaged 12.1 disposals, 2.7 goals and 6.0 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

12.1
Disposals
2.7
Goals
6.0
Marks
1.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (11 Aug 24 vs Hawthorn), Charlie Curnow recorded 2 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
11 Aug 24Hawthorn2120
3 Aug 24Collingwood9052
26 Jul 24Port Adelaide19392
21 Jul 24North Melbourne15491
13 Jul 24Western Bulldogs153100
6 Jul 24GWS GIANTS8130
30 Jun 24Richmond7230
21 Jun 24Geelong Cats13523
9 Jun 24Essendon11250
30 May 24Port Adelaide9372
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Goals 1.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Goals 1.5 Over -417 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals 1.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals Pending
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Goals Pending
03 Jul 26 Western Bulldogs @ Sydney Swans Goals Pending

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About This Player

Charlie Curnow (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Charlie Curnow is Over 1.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.1% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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