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Brodie Grundy

Sydney Swans

Value call

Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) has one live pick today: over 16.5 disposals that pays $185 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
59 in 100
Predicted
19.4 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 58.7% · before adjusting for past results 73.3% · the book's price implies 54.1% · gap +4.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Brodie Grundy
over 16.5 disposals
Disposals Over 16.5 -118 (1.85) · $100→$185
Value call
LEANWins about 59 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.50 Odds-118
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brodie Grundy is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 59 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 59%, the price says 54%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:22PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.3%58.7%54.1%1.93+19.2%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Brodie Grundy Over 16.5 Disposals (-118)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Brodie Grundy has been in solid form, helping Sydney Swans win 7 of their last 10 games. His ability to get the ball has been impressive, especially since the team averages 57.3 points before half-time in their recent matches. This suggests they start strong, which can give Grundy plenty of opportunities to rack up disposals. For this game against Fremantle Dockers, I think he can go over 16.5 disposals. Fremantle has also been good lately, winning 7 of their last 10, so it could be a closely contested match. The biggest risk is how tough Fremantle can be defensively, which might limit scoring chances. Still, Grundy's recent performances make this a promising pick.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Brodie Grundy averaged 18.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.

18.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
2.3
Marks
4.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Brodie Grundy recorded 22 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions22032
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide15042
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS17023
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows15014
16 Aug 24Essendon9002
9 Aug 24Collingwood13006
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide15013
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs15046
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions13031
13 Jul 24North Melbourne20146
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 15.5 Over -172 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 14.5 Over -263 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 13.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Handballs — — — Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brodie Grundy is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.2% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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