Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brodie Grundy is Over 12.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 94%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +8.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 3:05PM UTC
AFL

Brodie Grundy

Sydney Swans

+8.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 12.5 -588 (1.17)
+8.0% Edge
Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 3:05AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
93.5%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+8.0%
Predicted Value
20.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals93.5%85.5%1.07+8.0%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

See the full 20-game form curve

Unlock the complete recent-form hit-rate curve (last 3, 5, 10, 15, 20 & current streak) for this player.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) Over 12.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable midfield performers, Brodie Grundy stands tall. Heading into Marvel Stadium for a clash against St Kilda, Grundy's recent form is nothing short of impressive. Over his last five away games, he's been a disposal machine, averaging a solid 19.6 touches, comfortably exceeding the set line of 12.5. His ball use has been sharp, boasting a 63.8% disposal efficiency. Against St Kilda specifically, Grundy has been even more prolific, averaging 16.5 disposals in their past encounters. With a streak of 17 consecutive hits in away games and 16 overall, Grundy's consistency is as reliable as a sunrise. Expect him to once again hit the mark and rack up the possessions in this upcoming showdown.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
18.6avg disposals L5
Home22vs Port Adelaide20.8Season best31
O 16.570%
O 17.550%
O 18.540%
O 19.540%
O 20.530%
O 21.530%
Game log vs line (O 18.5)avg 15.4 · hi 22 · lo 9
2013151513915171522

Brodie Grundy has gone over 18.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 18.6 disposals, best 31).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 12.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 13.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brodie Grundy is Over 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.0% on this pick. Their next game is Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints on Saturday 1 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.