Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Brodie Grundy is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 57 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 57%, implied 70%, edge +0.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 7:49AM UTC
AFL

Brodie Grundy

Sydney Swans

+0.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+0.6% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
To Be Confirmed, Victoria, VIC · Outdoor
Mon 14 Sep, 2:00AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
18.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.0% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap +0.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.0%57.3%70.4%1.75+0.6%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games6/10

See his full recent form

Unlock how often this player has landed over his last 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20 games — plus his current streak.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Brodie Grundy Over 15.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Brodie Grundy is in great form, and Fremantle has been impressive lately, winning seven of their last ten games. They have also been scoring well, averaging nearly 45 points before half-time over their last twelve matches. This shows they are getting off to strong starts and dominating the play, which bodes well for Grundy getting more disposals in this game. Betting on Brodie Grundy to have over 15.5 disposals looks like a good choice given his recent performances. However, the biggest risk is how close the two teams are in terms of their recent play. If Sydney puts up a tough fight, it might limit his opportunities. Still, with Fremantle's overall strong showing, Grundy should have a solid chance to reach that number.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Brodie Grundy averaged 18.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.

18.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
2.3
Marks
4.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Brodie Grundy has cleared 11.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.5100%
o12.5100%
o14.590%
o15.590%
o17.560%
o18.550%
o20.540%
o22.540%
o23.530%
o25.520%
o26.50%
o28.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Brodie Grundy is averaging 21.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

21.6
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Brodie Grundy recorded 22 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions22032
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide15042
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS17023
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows15014
16 Aug 24Essendon9002
9 Aug 24Collingwood13006
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide15013
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs15046
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions13031
13 Jul 24North Melbourne20146
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 16.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
09 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brodie Grundy is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Monday 14 September at To Be Confirmed, Victoria. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.