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The latest Bet Better model pick for Brodie Grundy is Over 12.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 94 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 94%, implied 85%, edge +8.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 6:14PM UTC
AFL

Brodie Grundy

Sydney Swans

+8.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 12.5 -588 (1.17) · $100→$117
+8.0% Edge
Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 1 Aug, 3:05AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
94 in 100
Predicted
20.0 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 93.5% · the book's price implies 85.5% · gap +8.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals93.5%—85.5%1.07+8.0%

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AI Analysis

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Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) Over 12.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable midfield performers, Brodie Grundy stands tall. Heading into Marvel Stadium for a clash against St Kilda, Grundy's recent form is nothing short of impressive. Over his last five away games, he's been a disposal machine, averaging a solid 19.6 touches, comfortably exceeding the set line of 12.5. His ball use has been sharp, boasting a 63.8% disposal efficiency. Against St Kilda specifically, Grundy has been even more prolific, averaging 16.5 disposals in their past encounters. With a streak of 17 consecutive hits in away games and 16 overall, Grundy's consistency is as reliable as a sunrise. Expect him to once again hit the mark and rack up the possessions in this upcoming showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Brodie Grundy averaged 18.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.

18.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
2.3
Marks
4.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Brodie Grundy has cleared 14.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o14.5100%
o15.590%
o17.550%
o19.540%
o20.530%
o22.530%
o24.520%
o25.510%
o27.50%
o29.50%
o30.50%
o32.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Brodie Grundy is averaging 20.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

20.2
Disp · Overall
0.2
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Brodie Grundy recorded 22 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions22032
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide15042
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS17023
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows15014
16 Aug 24Essendon9002
9 Aug 24Collingwood13006
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide15013
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs15046
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions13031
13 Jul 24North Melbourne20146
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 12.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 13.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brodie Grundy is Over 12.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.0% on this pick. Their next game is Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints on Saturday 1 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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