Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) Over 16.5 Disposals (-238)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Grundy is one of the more reliable disposal accumulators among AFL rucks, and the numbers here back a confident lean to the over. His L5 away average sits at 18.2 disposals — 1.7 clear of the line — and the model projects 20, generating a 5.6% edge against the 70.4% implied probability baked into the $1.42. That projection is built on a foundation of 12.8 contested possessions per away game, meaning he's consistently winning his own ball and converting it into touches rather than relying on easy uncontested work.
The historical matchup numbers against Fremantle (13.5 away, 15.8 overall) are the one note of caution, but his current form overrides that concern — he's hit 16.5+ in 11 of his last 15 away games and is riding a three-game overall streak. The line looks a touch generous given where his form sits right now.