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The latest Bet Better model pick for Brodie Grundy is Over 9.5 on Handballs.
On Handballs, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 72%, the price says 68%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 6, 12:20PM UTC
AFL

Brodie Grundy

Sydney Swans

Value call

Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) has one live pick today: Handballs Over 9.5 that pays $147 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Handballs Over 9.5 -213 (1.47) · $100→$147
Value call
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
12.0 Handballs
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 72.2% · before adjusting for past results 84.3% · the book's price implies 68.0% · gap +4.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Handballs84.3%72.2%68.0%1.39+16.2%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Brodie Grundy Over 9.5 Handballs (-213)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Brodie Grundy has been on a roll lately, showing strong skills in handballing. He's been getting a lot of chances, with his recent numbers suggesting he can easily go over the 9.5 mark for handballs in this game against Fremantle Dockers. His ability to find teammates through quick passes has been impressive, making him a key player to watch. The bet is looking good, especially since Grundy usually averages much more than this. One potential risk is that Fremantle's defense may try to clamp down on him, which could limit his opportunities. Still, with his current form, it's hard to see him not hitting this target at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Brodie Grundy averaged 18.0 disposals, 0.1 goals and 2.3 marks per game across 26 games in 2024.

18.0
Disposals
0.1
Goals
2.3
Marks
4.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Brodie Grundy recorded 22 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions22032
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide15042
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS17023
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows15014
16 Aug 24Essendon9002
9 Aug 24Collingwood13006
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide15013
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs15046
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions13031
13 Jul 24North Melbourne20146
Quick answers:How many disposals does Brodie Grundy average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 16.5 Over -238 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Handballs — — — Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Brodie Grundy (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Brodie Grundy is Over 9.5 on Handballs. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +16.2% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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