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Model picks & player props
Adelaide Crows
VS
Sydney Swans

Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 25, 11:51PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
SCG, Sydney
Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul 2026, 9:40AM
20
Game markets graded
20
Props graded
64.5%
Historical Hit Rate
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Sydney Swans -12.5 Spread -111

The model graded 40 markets for Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $190 if it lands. Picks on this matchup have hit 64.5% across 31 settled results. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 17 Jul 2026, 9:40AM at SCG.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win71.2%
The price says52.6%
Best price-111
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Spread Sydney Swans -12.5 High71% chance -111
Spread High70% chance
Spread Q3 High64% chance
Spread Q3 High62% chance
Spread Q2 High62% chance
Spread Lean59% chance
Spread Q2 Lean60% chance
Spread Lean56% chance
Spread Lean55% chance
Goals × 10 props Highup to 93%
Disposals × 10 props Highup to 82%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Adelaide Crows · $100 returned $288

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Spread
Sydney Swans
-11.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Sydney SwansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Sydney SwansSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Sydney SwansSpread Q3The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Sydney SwansSpread Q3The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Sydney SwansSpread Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Sydney SwansSpread Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpread Q3The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsSpread Q2The model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Adelaide CrowsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Crows

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Swans

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Logan McDonald Sydney Swans Goals
Josh Rachele Adelaide Crows Goals
Isaac Heeney Sydney Swans Disposals
James Jordon Sydney Swans Disposals
Taylor Walker Adelaide Crows Goals

+ 20 player props graded for this game — the line, the call and how much to put on each, with Pro.

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Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans — what the model found

Our model graded 40 betting markets for Adelaide Crows at Sydney Swans — 20 on the game itself and 20 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
20
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 40 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 39 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans — recent results

Sydney Swans have won 5 of their last 5 games; Adelaide Crows have won 3 of their last 5.

Sydney Swans — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W123–70NMFCHome
W112–76ESSAway
W167–70PORTHome
W107–88STKAway
W139–88GWSAway
Adelaide Crows — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W157–101GWSHome
L88–112FREAway
W63–54RICHHome
W145–73ESSAway
L74–108COLLHome

Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans — recent meetings

These two have met 1 time recently: Sydney Swans won 0, Adelaide Crows won 1.

DateSydney SwansAdelaide CrowsWinner
Jul 177187Adelaide Crows

Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans — model preview

Winning bets for Sydney Swans vs Adelaide Crows? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like James Jordon. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Sydney Swans vs Adelaide Crows stats and odds.

James Jordon (Sydney Swans) Over 14.5 Disposals (-161)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's dive into why James Jordon is a solid pick to go over 14.5 disposals when the Sydney Swans take on the Adelaide Crows at the SCG. Jordon has been a midfield maestro at home, averaging a hefty 17.4 disposals over his last five games on familiar turf. His recent form screams consistency, with an impressive 88.2% disposal efficiency and a knack for finding space with 237.8 meters gained per game. Facing the Crows, who he's averaged 15.6 disposals against in his last five matchups, Jordon is primed to thrive. With his ability to rack up both contested and uncontested possessions, expect him to be in the thick of the action, making the over 14.5 disposals a smart play for this clash.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
Recent form: won 4 of last 5 settled picks for this matchup.
31
Total Picks
64.5%
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
17 Jul 26 Spread Adelaide Crows +12.5 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Spread Sydney Swans -12.5 ✗ MISS
17 Jul 26 Total Points Under 179.5 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Spread Q2 Sydney Swans -2.5 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Spread Q3 Sydney Swans -2.5 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Spread Q4 Sydney Swans -2.5 ✗ MISS
17 Jul 26 Total Points Q1 Under 45.5 ✗ MISS
17 Jul 26 Total Points Q3 Under 45.5 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Total Points H1 Under 89.5 ✗ MISS
17 Jul 26 Total Points H2 Under 89.5 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Team Total Points H1 Under 47.5 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Spread Adelaide Crows +11.5 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Spread Sydney Swans -11.5 ✗ MISS
17 Jul 26 Total Points Under 178.5 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Spread Q3 Sydney Swans -3.5 ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Crows vs Swans, or as Swans vs Crows. The most recent game between them was Friday 17 July 2026 at SCG. The model has generated 20 game picks and 20 player props for this matchup. The model has recorded a hit rate of 64.5% on tracked picks between these two teams. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

Last time they played

Final scores · last 1 meeting
Adelaide Crows 1–0 across the last meeting
DateGameScoreWinner
17 Jul 2026Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans71–87Adelaide Crows
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