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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Papley is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 84%, for a model edge of +5.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
AFL

Tom Papley

Sydney Swans

+5.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -526 (1.19)
+5.0% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
89.0%
Implied Probability
84.0%
Model Edge
+5.0%
Predicted Value
1.5 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals89.0%84.0%1.12+5.0%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (-526)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the upcoming clash between Sydney Swans and Adelaide Crows, all signs point to Tom Papley snagging a goal or two. Papley has been on fire lately, averaging 1.4 goals in his last five home games. With a solid shot average of 3.2 and an impressive goal accuracy of 45.2%, he's been a key player in the Swans' attacking strategy. When facing Adelaide at home, Papley has maintained a goal average of 1.5, showcasing his consistency against this opponent. His recent form is impressive, hitting the back of the net in his last four consecutive home games and boasting a 90% goal-scoring rate in his last ten matches overall. With Papley's sharpshooting skills and the home ground advantage, betting on him to score over 0.5 goals seems like a safe bet for this matchup at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
14.4avg disposals recent
Season best24
Disposals last 10avg 14.4 · hi 19 · lo 7
151919151619716810

Tom Papley has a disposals high of 24 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
2avg goals recent
Season best4
Goals last 10avg 2 · hi 4 · lo 0
4122140231

Tom Papley has a goals high of 4 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -526 ✗ MISS
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 12.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 11.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Papley is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +5.0% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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