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AFL

Tom Papley

Sydney Swans

+1.8% Edge
Latest Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -556 (1.18)
+1.8% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney
Fri 17 Apr, 9:50AM
Model Probability
86.6%
Implied Probability
84.7%
Model Edge
+1.8%
Predicted Value
1.4 Goals

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (-556)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to chalking up goals, Tom Papley is a reliable go-to man for the Sydney Swans. With an average of 1.4 goals in his last five home games and a solid 31.9% goal accuracy, Papley knows how to split the big sticks when the pressure is on. His recent stats show a promising trend, with 5.8 score involvements and 3.6 shots at goal per game, indicating he's actively involved in the attacking plays. Facing off against the Greater Western Sydney Giants, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 1.6 goals in their last five encounters, Papley seems poised to snag at least one goal this time around. With his current form and the Swans playing at home, betting on Papley to score over 0.5 goals seems like a solid punt for this upcoming clash at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (8 picks) 100.0% (8/8)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Apr 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -556 ✓ HIT
04 Apr 26 Sydney Swans @ West Coast Eagles Goals 0.5 Over -556 ✓ HIT
19 Mar 26 Sydney Swans @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
14 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
14 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
14 Mar 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 8 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 100.0% (8/8). The latest model pick for Tom Papley is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.8% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 April at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.