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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Papley is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 84%, for a model edge of +5.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 11:14PM UTC
AFL

Tom Papley

Sydney Swans

+5.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -526 (1.19) · $100→$119
+5.0% Edge
Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Jul, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
89.0%
Implied Probability
84.0%
Model Edge
+5.0%
Predicted Value
1.5 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals89.0%84.0%1.12+5.0%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (-526)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at the upcoming clash between Sydney Swans and Adelaide Crows, all signs point to Tom Papley snagging a goal or two. Papley has been on fire lately, averaging 1.4 goals in his last five home games. With a solid shot average of 3.2 and an impressive goal accuracy of 45.2%, he's been a key player in the Swans' attacking strategy. When facing Adelaide at home, Papley has maintained a goal average of 1.5, showcasing his consistency against this opponent. His recent form is impressive, hitting the back of the net in his last four consecutive home games and boasting a 90% goal-scoring rate in his last ten matches overall. With Papley's sharpshooting skills and the home ground advantage, betting on him to score over 0.5 goals seems like a safe bet for this matchup at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Tom Papley averaged 14.9 disposals, 1.7 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

14.9
Disposals
1.7
Goals
3.8
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom Papley recorded 10 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions10121
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide8330
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS16243
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions7011
13 Jul 24North Melbourne19452
7 Jul 24St Kilda16140
29 Jun 24Fremantle15211
22 Jun 24GWS GIANTS19230
15 Jun 24Adelaide Crows19160
9 Jun 24Geelong Cats15463
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -526 ✗ MISS
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 12.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 11.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Papley is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +5.0% on this pick. Their next game is Adelaide Crows vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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