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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Papley is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 61%, the price says 70%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 22, 5:15PM UTC
AFL

Tom Papley

Sydney Swans

Value call

Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) has one live pick today: Marks Over 1.5 that pays $143 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Marks Over 1.5 -233 (1.43) · $100→$143
Value call
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
2.5 Marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 60.5% · before adjusting for past results 71.7% · the book's price implies 69.9% · gap -9.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks71.7%60.5%69.9%1.65+1.7%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Tom Papley Over 1.5 Marks (-233)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Tom Papley to go over 1.5 marks tonight, he just needs to snag a couple of catches. The Sydney Swans have been on fire lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games and averaging a solid 57.3 points before half-time. Papley has been a key player, and with the team's current form, he's likely to find plenty of opportunities to take marks. Fremantle is also strong, having won 7 of their last 10, and they can put up a good fight. The risk is that both teams are close in skill level, making it tricky for any player to shine. Still, with how well Papley has been playing, he has a good chance to hit that mark tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Tom Papley averaged 14.9 disposals, 1.7 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

14.9
Disposals
1.7
Goals
3.8
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom Papley recorded 10 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions10121
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide8330
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS16243
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions7011
13 Jul 24North Melbourne19452
7 Jul 24St Kilda16140
29 Jun 24Fremantle15211
22 Jun 24GWS GIANTS19230
15 Jun 24Adelaide Crows19160
9 Jun 24Geelong Cats15463
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks 1.5 Over -233 ✗ MISS
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals 16.5 Under -119 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals — — — Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Papley is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.7% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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