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Tom Papley

Sydney Swans

Value call

Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) has one live pick today: over 1.5 marks that pays $144 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
60 in 100
Predicted
2.5 marks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 60.4% · before adjusting for past results 71.5% · the book's price implies 69.4% · gap -9.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 7:40 PM AEST
Tom Papley
over 1.5 marks
Marks Over 1.5 -227 (1.44) · $100→$144
Value call
HIGHWins about 60 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.40 Odds-227
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Papley is Over 1.5 on Marks.
On Marks, our numbers say this bet wins about 60 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 60%, the price says 69%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 23, 9:12AM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Marks71.5%60.4%69.4%1.66+2.1%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Tom Papley Over 1.5 Marks (-227)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Tom Papley to get over 1.5 marks tonight, he just needs to catch a couple of passes during the game. The Sydney Swans are on a roll, winning 7 of their last 10 games and coming out strong in their recent matches. They've been scoring well, especially in the first half, which gives Papley more chances to get those marks. Fremantle has also performed well lately, winning 7 of their last 10, so this could be a close matchup. Papley has been known for his ability to find the ball, and with the Swans averaging over 57 points before half-time, he should have plenty of opportunities. The main risk here is that both teams are playing well, so it could be a tightly contested game that impacts his chances.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 8 of last 10(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Tom Papley averaged 14.9 disposals, 1.7 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

14.9
Disposals
1.7
Goals
3.8
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom Papley recorded 10 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions10121
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide8330
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS16243
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions7011
13 Jul 24North Melbourne19452
7 Jul 24St Kilda16140
29 Jun 24Fremantle15211
22 Jun 24GWS GIANTS19230
15 Jun 24Adelaide Crows19160
9 Jun 24Geelong Cats15463
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Sep 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans Marks 1.5 Over -227 ✗ MISS
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals 16.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -476 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals — — — Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Papley is Over 1.5 on Marks. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.1% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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