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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Papley is Under 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 72 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 72%, implied 53%, edge +18.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 2, 5:09AM UTC
AFL

Tom Papley

Sydney Swans

+18.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 16.5 -115 (1.87) · $100→$187
+18.1% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 5 Sep, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
72 in 100
Predicted
13.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.5% · the book's price implies 53.5% · gap +18.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.5%—53.5%1.40+18.1%

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions: Tom Papley Under 16.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Papley is set at under 16.5 disposals, and the odds are -115. Our numbers show he has been having a tough time getting the ball lately. He's typically making about 12 disposals per game, and his recent stats suggest he might struggle to hit this mark against Brisbane Lions. While the Lions are a solid team, they also have a strong defense that could limit Papley's chances even more. With the way he's been playing, there's a real risk he might not reach 16.5 disposals in this matchup. It's not a sure thing, but it looks like a good chance to take.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 5(80%)

Season averages (2024)

Tom Papley averaged 14.9 disposals, 1.7 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

14.9
Disposals
1.7
Goals
3.8
Marks
1.2
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Tom Papley has cleared 10.5 disposals in 60% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.560%
o11.560%
o13.550%
o15.550%
o16.550%
o18.510%
o20.510%
o21.510%
o23.510%
o25.50%
o26.50%
o28.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Tom Papley is averaging 14.4 disposals per game over his last 5 and 17.0 in home games.

14.4
Disp · Overall
17.0
Disp · Home
1.4
Goals · Overall
2.2
Goals · Home

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom Papley recorded 10 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions10121
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide8330
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS16243
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions7011
13 Jul 24North Melbourne19452
7 Jul 24St Kilda16140
29 Jun 24Fremantle15211
22 Jun 24GWS GIANTS19230
15 Jun 24Adelaide Crows19160
9 Jun 24Geelong Cats15463
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -526 ✗ MISS
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 12.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals 11.5 Over -294 ✓ HIT
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
17 Jul 26 Adelaide Crows @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Tom Papley (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Papley is Under 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 5 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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