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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Lloyd is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 72%, for a model edge of +2.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:45AM UTC
AFL

Jake Lloyd

Sydney Swans

+2.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -256 (1.39)
+2.9% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 17 Apr, 9:50AM
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Model Probability
74.8%
Implied Probability
71.9%
Model Edge
+2.9%
Predicted Value
18.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.8%—71.9%1.34+2.9%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Jake Lloyd (Sydney Swans) Over 15.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Jake Lloyd to surpass 15.5 disposals in the upcoming clash between the Sydney Swans and the Greater Western Sydney Giants, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five home games, Lloyd has been a midfield maestro, averaging 15 disposals with a sharp 75.9% efficiency. Against the Giants specifically, he has elevated his game, notching an impressive 23.6 disposals on average. His recent form also showcases consistency, with a solid 15 disposals per game overall. With a model prediction of 18.8 disposals and a strong 71.9% implied probability, Lloyd's ability to find the footy and distribute it effectively makes him a prime candidate to hit the over in this matchup at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 18.5
18.6avg disposals L5
Home18.4vs Adelaide Crows16.8Season best32
O 16.560%
O 17.550%
O 18.550%
O 19.550%
O 20.540%
O 21.530%
Game log vs line (O 18.5)avg 20.6 · hi 32 · lo 14
24142516182117322019

Jake Lloyd has gone over 18.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 18.6 disposals, best 32).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
17 Apr 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Sydney Swans Disposals 15.5 Over -256 ✗ MISS
17 Apr 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Sydney Swans Disposals 14.5 Over -400 ✗ MISS
17 Apr 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Sydney Swans Disposals 13.5 Over -588 ✗ MISS
19 Mar 26 Sydney Swans @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Mar 26 Sydney Swans @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Mar 26 Sydney Swans @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jake Lloyd (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Lloyd is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.9% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Sydney Swans on Friday 17 April at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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