Caiden Cleary (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (-114)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The numbers here are thin, and that's the honest starting point. Caiden Cleary is averaging just 0.2 goals across his last five home games and his last five overall, with a goal accuracy of 5% and only 1.4 shots at goal per home outing. Against North Melbourne specifically, he's averaging zero goals across the last five matchups. The model projects 0.6 goals — marginally over the 0.5 line — but with a standard deviation of 0.9, there's enormous variance baked into that projection.
The 2.9% model edge against a 53.2% implied probability is real but modest, and the underlying stats don't paint a convincing picture of a player threatening to kick a goal regularly. His 0.6 marks inside 50 at home and 2.4 inside-50 entries suggest limited scoring opportunities. This is a marginal play at best — size accordingly and don't overcommit.