Shai Bolton at home is a different beast, and the numbers back that up emphatically. His L5 home disposal average sits at 24.8 — a full 6.3 above this 18.5 line — and he's cleared it in all five of his last five home outings, generating an average of 471 metres gained per game at Optus Stadium. The model projects him for 23.5 disposals, giving a 9.7% edge against implied odds of 74.6% at $1.34. That's a meaningful gap between what the market is pricing and what the data is saying.
Even his overall L5 average of 22.4 disposals comfortably beats the line, and his 9/10 hit rate across all games reinforces that this isn't a hot streak built on one or two flukes. His contested possession work (9.2 at home) and handball volume (12.8) suggest he generates touches in multiple ways, making him hard to suppress. Solid edge here.
Chad Warner (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (-270)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Chad Warner is in the kind of goalscoring form that makes a 0.5-goal line look almost redundant. He's hit this mark in five straight games and in eight of his last nine away fixtures — a 89% away hit rate that underpins the model's projection of 1.2 goals, sitting well clear of the line and generating a 9.5% edge against the implied 73.0% probability baked into the $1.37. The away-specific numbers are particularly compelling: averaging 1.8 goals and 3.6 shots at goal across his last five away games, with 5.6 inside-50s and 7.2 score involvements per game, Warner is consistently getting into dangerous positions and converting. His 41.2% away goal accuracy is softer than his overall 56.3%, yet the sheer volume of attempts still produces results. Travelling to Perth adds a small layer of risk, but the data here is hard to argue with.
James Jordon (Sydney Swans) Over 14.5 Disposals (-161)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
James Jordon is a genuine chance to cover this line comfortably, with the model projecting 17.1 disposals against a 14.5 mark — a 2.6-disposal buffer that translates to an 8.4% edge over the implied 61.7% probability baked into the $1.62. The most compelling number here is his L5 away record specifically against Fremantle: 20.7 disposals per game, well clear of his broader L5 away average of 14.4. That Fremantle matchup history does real work in this case.
His overall L5 form reinforces the read — 17 disposals per game across all venues, built on a solid mix of 9.6 handballs and 7.4 kicks, with 285.8 metres gained suggesting he's moving the ball with purpose rather than padding stats in dead zones. The away disposal efficiency dips to 69.3% from 79.4% overall, which is worth noting, but the volume has still been there. At this line, the model sees genuine value.
Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle) Over 23.5 Disposals (-196)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Brayshaw is one of the most reliable ball-winners in the competition at home, and the numbers back that up emphatically. His L5 home average of 27.8 disposals sits 4.3 clear of this 23.5 line, and the model projects 26.7, generating an 8.2% edge against the implied 66.2% probability baked into the $1.51. That's a meaningful gap worth acting on. His overall L5 average of 28 disposals across all venues is equally convincing, and he's cleared 23.5 in seven of his last eight outings — a hit rate that reflects genuine consistency, not a hot streak. At home specifically, he's gone 3/4 over the line while averaging 15.2 handballs and 12.6 kicks, with 81.6% disposal efficiency suggesting he's not just accumulating garbage touches. Sydney's head-to-head numbers (23.6 average) are the one mild caution, but Optus Stadium and Brayshaw's current form make this a well-supported edge.
Corey Wagner (Fremantle) Over 13.5 Disposals (-303)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Wagner's disposal numbers at Optus Stadium make this line look genuinely soft. His L5 home average sits at 19.6 disposals — a full six above the 13.5 mark — and he's averaging 11.6 kicks and 8 handballs at home with an impressive 82.9% efficiency, meaning these aren't just cheap touches. Against Sydney specifically, he's averaging 20 disposals at home and 20.8 overall across his last five meetings, which adds another layer of confidence. The model projects 18.3 disposals, generating an 8% edge against the implied probability of 75.2% baked into the $1.33 price.
What really sharpens the case is the streak data — Wagner has cleared 13.5 in 11 consecutive games overall and 6 from 6 at home. That's not noise, that's a pattern. The line feels set for casual money; the numbers suggest Wagner comfortably surpasses it again at his home ground.
Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans : Fremantle Dockers -12.5 (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
The model has Fremantle winning by 8.6 points, which falls short of the 12.5-point spread — so this is a case where the edge is thin and the numbers deserve honest scrutiny before committing. That said, Freo's home fortress at Optus Stadium is doing real work here. Over their last five home games they're averaging a 23-point winning margin while conceding just 69.4 points, and their inside 50 count of 55.2 per game translates to 30.8 shots at goal — genuine scoreboard pressure. Sydney away from home is a very different beast to their overall form; their L5 away margin sits at just 0.8 points with opponents scoring 93.8 against them, compared to Freo's home defence holding rivals to 69.4. The 1.5% model edge at $1.89 implies 52.9% — modest, but the venue split between these two sides gives the line genuine legs.