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The latest Bet Better model pick for James Rowbottom is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +3.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:43AM UTC
AFL

James Rowbottom

Sydney Swans

+3.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -233 (1.43)
+3.4% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sun 6 Jul, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
73.3%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+3.4%
Predicted Value
17.6 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.3%—69.9%1.36+3.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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James Rowbottom (Sydney Swans) Over 14.5 Disposals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

James Rowbottom is poised to exceed 14.5 disposals based on his recent form. With a strong average of 18 disposals in his last five home games, including 23 against Fremantle, and an overall 15-disposal average, he consistently meets or surpasses this line. Rowbottom's ability to gain meters and intercept the ball further supports his potential to accumulate possessions. Despite a slight decrease in kicks, his handballing and contested possessions remain steady. With a solid hit rate and a model predicting 17.6 disposals, the 3.4% edge suggests a favorable opportunity for Rowbottom to contribute significantly in the upcoming game against the Fremantle Dockers at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
15.8avg disposals L5
Home15.4vs Adelaide Crows20.6Season best32
O 13.570%
O 14.550%
O 15.540%
O 16.540%
O 17.530%
O 18.520%
Game log vs line (O 15.5)avg 19.2 · hi 23 · lo 16
23182216211721181818

James Rowbottom has gone over 15.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 15.8 disposals, best 32).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

James Rowbottom (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for James Rowbottom is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.4% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Sunday 6 July at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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