James Rowbottom (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (+115)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Rowbottom's home form makes this line look a touch soft. At the SCG over his last five home games, he's averaging 0.6 goals and 1.4 shots at goal per game, hitting the over 0.5 line in two of his last three home outings. That 0.6 home average aligns almost exactly with the model's projection of 0.6, and with the book pricing this at just 46.5% implied probability, the model sees a genuine 9.4% edge — meaningful value at $2.15.
The concern worth flagging is his record directly against North Melbourne, where he hasn't converted in recent meetings. But with 3.6 inside 50s and 5.2 score involvements per home game, Rowbottom is clearly getting into the action regularly enough to threaten. His goal accuracy sits at 26.7% at home, so the shots are coming — it's a volume-and-conversion play that the price doesn't fully account for.