Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Braeden Campbell is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 54 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 54%, implied 61%, edge +3.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 5:14AM UTC
AFL
Braeden Campbell
Sydney Swans
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-154 (1.65) · $100→$165
+3.0% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos
@
Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sun 23 Aug, 5:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
64 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 63.6% · the book's price implies 60.6% · gap +3.0%.
| Market | Model | Calibrated | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 63.6% | 54.0% | 60.6% | 1.85 | +3.0% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 1/3 |
| Last 5 games | 2/5 |
| Last 10 games | 6/10 |
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Braeden Campbell (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Goals (-154)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Braeden Campbell's home form is the key driver here. At the SCG across his last five home games, he's averaging 1.0 goal and kicking at a 63.3% accuracy rate from 1.4 shots at goal — a combination that has him clearing this 0.5 line at a 4/5 hit rate. That's a compelling foundation for a bet that simply needs him to find the big sticks once.
The model projects 0.8 goals against an implied probability of 60.6% at $1.65, generating a 3% edge — modest but real. His home marks inside 50 (0.8) and score involvements (4.6) suggest he's regularly in dangerous positions at this ground. North Melbourne's defensive record makes them a reasonable opponent to target, and with Campbell operating at home where he clearly lifts his output, there's enough substance here to back the over with confidence.
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Season averages (2024)
Braeden Campbell averaged 10.3 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.
Hit-rate ladder: Goals Scored
Braeden Campbell has cleared 0.5 goals scored in 60% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.
Home / away and opponent splits
Braeden Campbell is averaging 17.6 disposals per game over his last 5.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Braeden Campbell recorded 4 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 28 Sep 24 | Brisbane Lions | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 20 Sep 24 | Port Adelaide | 8 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 Sep 24 | GWS GIANTS | 9 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 24 Aug 24 | Adelaide Crows | 14 | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| 16 Aug 24 | Essendon | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 9 Aug 24 | Collingwood | 11 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 28 Jul 24 | Western Bulldogs | 12 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 21 Jul 24 | Brisbane Lions | 13 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| 13 Jul 24 | North Melbourne | 13 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 7 Jul 24 | St Kilda | 13 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
| 23 Aug 26 |
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Sydney Swans |
Goals |
0.5 |
Over |
-154 |
✓ HIT |
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Braeden Campbell (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Braeden Campbell is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.0% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans on Sunday 23 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.