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Model picks & player props
Sydney Swans
VS
St Kilda Saints

Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 2:10PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Outdoor
Sun 13 Jul 2025, 5:15AM
8
Game Picks
15
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: St Kilda Saints 7.5 (Spread)
For Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints (AFL), model win probability 66.7%, fair odds 1.50, book price -112, model edge +13.8%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 13 Jul 2025, 5:15AM at Marvel Stadium.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Spread
St Kilda Saints
8.5
+ 7 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
St Kilda SaintsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St Kilda SaintsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
St Kilda SaintsSpreadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Swans

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Saints

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Callum Mills Sydney Swans Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Rowan Marshall St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Mitch Owens St Kilda Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Callum Wilkie St Kilda Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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Sydney Swans @ St Kilda Saints — model preview

<p>Winning bets for St Kilda Saints vs Sydney Swans? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Cooper Sharman. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, St Kilda Saints vs Sydney Swans stats and odds.</p>

Cooper Sharman (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Cooper Sharman is a strong pick to score anytime against the Sydney Swans. His recent form at home showcases a high average of 2.2 goals per game, with a reliable 58.1% goal accuracy. Additionally, his ability to generate scoring opportunities is evident with an average of 4 shots at goal and 2.8 marks inside 50 in his last five home games. Against the upcoming opponent, he has maintained a solid average of 2 goals per game at home. With an edge of 8.1% based on the model's prediction of 1.3 goals for Sharman, the implied probability of 76.3% supports this bet, making Sharman a promising choice to snag a goal in this matchup at Marvel Stadium.

Cooper Sharman (St Kilda) Over 9.5 Disposals (-145)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Cooper Sharman is poised to shine in the upcoming home game against Sydney Swans. With a solid L5 average of 12.8 disposals per game, exceeding the line of 9.5 is well within his recent form. His L5 kicks average of 9.2 and facing an opponent where he averages 10 disposals in home games further support his potential to reach and surpass this line. Sharman's current hit streak of 3 in home games and a reliable disposal efficiency of 66.1% enhance his chances of maintaining possession. Coupled with a recent hit rate of 5/6, the model's prediction of 11.6 disposals with a 7.2% edge makes betting on Sharman to go over 9.5 disposals a favorable choice for this matchup.

Isaac Heeney (Sydney Swans) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-435)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Isaac Heeney is a solid bet to score anytime in the upcoming game against St Kilda. With a model predicting him to score 1.4 goals, a 6.0% edge, and an implied probability of 81.3%, Heeney's recent form supports this bet. In his last five away games, he has averaged 1.4 goals, showcasing a goal accuracy of 56.7%, and generating 2.6 shots at goal per game. Furthermore, his strong involvement in the scoring plays with an average of 7 score involvements per game enhances his goal-scoring potential. Considering his consistent performance and the favorable matchup against St Kilda, backing Heeney to snag a goal anytime seems like a promising wager.

Jack Higgins (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-556)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jack Higgins is a solid bet to score anytime based on his recent performance trends. With an average of 1.2 goals in his last five home games and facing an opponent against whom he has averaged 2 goals in the same period, Higgins has shown consistency in finding the big sticks. His involvement in scoring opportunities is evident from his average of 3.8 score involvements and 2.6 shots at goal per game. Despite a slightly lower goal accuracy at 46.7%, his ability to create and capitalize on chances, combined with the model's prediction of 1.5 goals and a positive 5.1% edge, makes Higgins a favorable choice to snag a goal in this matchup.

Callum Wilkie (St Kilda) Over 14.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Callum Wilkie's recent performance, especially at home, supports betting on him to exceed 14.5 disposals against the Sydney Swans. With a solid average of 17 disposals in his last five home games and a consistent hit streak, Wilkie is likely to maintain his form. Facing the Swans, whom he averages 19.5 disposals against, further strengthens this bet. His high disposalefficiency of 85.0% and ability to gain meters effectively suggest he'll play a significant role in St Kilda's midfield. With a model projecting him to reach 19.3 disposals and a positive edge of 4.7%, the statistical data aligns well to support the Over bet on Wilkie for this AFL matchup.

Mason Wood (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mason Wood is a strong bet to score anytime against the Sydney Swans. Despite a lower L5 average of 0.6 goals at home, he faces an opponent where he's averaged 1 goal over the last 5 matchups. With a higher L5 shots at goal average (2.4) and solid score involvements (5.6), Wood is consistently involved in St Kilda's attacking plays. His 1.2 marks inside 50 per game indicate his ability to get in dangerous positions to snag a goal. Moreover, his 23.3% goal accuracy at home, although not elite, suggests he's due for a better conversion rate. Considering these factors, the model's prediction of 1.1 goals, despite a deviation of 0.8, presents a favorable edge for Wood to hit the scoreboard.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Sydney Swans vs St Kilda Saints in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 13 July 2025 at Marvel Stadium. The model has generated 8 game picks and 15 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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