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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lloyd Meek is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 73%, versus the book's implied 59%, for a model edge of +13.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
AFL

Lloyd Meek

Hawthorn

+13.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -143 (1.70)
+13.8% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 6:15AM
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Model Probability
72.6%
Implied Probability
58.8%
Model Edge
+13.8%
Predicted Value
14.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.6%—58.8%1.38+13.8%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Lloyd Meek (Hawthorn) Over 11.5 Disposals (-143)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable disposals in the upcoming clash between Hawthorn and Port Adelaide, Lloyd Meek is shaping up to be a key player. Meek has been a consistent force in recent outings, averaging 11.8 disposals at home in his last five games, with a solid contested possessions average of 5.6. His ability to find space and move the ball efficiently with a 80.2% disposal efficiency makes him a valuable asset in the midfield battle. Moreover, facing Port Adelaide at Marvel Stadium, where he averages 12 disposals against this opponent, further boosts his potential to surpass the line of 11.5 disposals. With a current hit streak and a strong overall hit rate, Meek is poised to continue his form and provide a solid foundation for this player prop bet. Betting on Lloyd Meek to go over 11.5 disposals seems like a smart play given his recent performances and matchup dynamics.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
13.6avg disposals L5
Away10.6vs Richmond10.3Season best23
O 11.540%
O 12.530%
O 13.530%
O 14.530%
O 15.520%
Game log vs line (O 13.5)avg 14.9 · hi 23 · lo 11
13151311161413162315

Lloyd Meek has gone over 13.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 13.6 disposals, best 23).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0avg goals L5
Away0vs Richmond0Season best2
O 0.510%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.2 · hi 1 · lo 0
0000010010

Lloyd Meek has gone over 0.5 goals in 1 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0 goals, best 2).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 11.5 Over -143 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 10.5 Over -196 ✗ MISS
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 9.5 Over -286 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Lloyd Meek (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lloyd Meek is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.8% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 18 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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