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Model picks & player props
North Melbourne Kangaroos
VS
Port Adelaide Power

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 21, 11:20AM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

AFL
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
Outdoor
Sun 5 Jul 2026, 6:40AM
8
Game Picks
15
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Port Adelaide Power (Head to Head)
For North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power (AFL), model win probability 84.2%, fair odds 1.19, book price -238, model edge +13.7%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sun 5 Jul 2026, 6:40AM at Adelaide Oval.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Head to Head
Port Adelaide Power
+ 7 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Port Adelaide PowerHead to HeadPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Who's out

Injuries & availability

Kangaroos

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Power

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
George Wardlaw North Melbourne Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Zak Butters Port Adelaide Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Luke Davies-Uniacke North Melbourne Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Jack Whitlock Port Adelaide Goals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Willem Drew Port Adelaide Disposals 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Port Adelaide Power — model preview

<p>Winning bets for Port Adelaide Power vs North Melbourne Kangaroos? We break down odds and insights. Includes analysis on key players like Jy Simpkin. Explore AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Port Adelaide Power vs North Melbourne Kangaroos stats and odds.</p>

Jy Simpkin (North Melbourne) Over 17.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player for the Over in disposals, Jy Simpkin is the man to watch as North Melbourne takes on Port Adelaide. Simpkin has been a standout performer, averaging an impressive 20 disposals over his last five away games. His ability to find the footy is unmatched, with a knack for winning contested possessions and covering ground with his kicks, averaging 13 per game. His recent form against Port Adelaide and overall season average of 21.6 disposals indicate he's a reliable accumulator. With a current hit streak of 3 and solid metrics in contested possessions and disposal efficiency, Simpkin is poised to exceed the 17.5 disposals line comfortably, making him a strong bet for this matchup at Adelaide Oval.

Finn O'Sullivan (North Melbourne) Over 17.5 Disposals (-152)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Finn O'Sullivan is poised to shine in the 'Player Disposals Over/Under' market when North Melbourne faces Port Adelaide. O'Sullivan's recent form is impressive, averaging 19.2 disposals over his last five away games. With a consistent handball and kick game, he's been a pivotal playmaker for the Kangaroos. Against this specific opponent, he's even more potent, notching up 13.5 disposals on average. His disposal efficiency sits at a strong 83.7%, showcasing his ability to make each possession count. The model predicts O'Sullivan to hit 20.1 disposals, a figure well above the line of 17.5. This bet offers solid value given his current streak and the matchup dynamics. Expect O'Sullivan to feed off his recent success and snag those disposals at Adelaide Oval.

Finn O'Sullivan (North Melbourne) Over 16.5 Disposals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Finn O'Sullivan is primed to shine away at Adelaide Oval. In his last five away games, he's been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 19.2 disposals. Facing Port Adelaide, he's maintained an impressive 13.5 disposal average in the same time frame. O'Sullivan's knack for finding the footy is backed by his recent form, boasting a 83.7% disposal efficiency and a stellar 291.8 metres gained on average per game away from home. With a line set at 16.5 disposals, O'Sullivan's consistent performance and ability to impact the game make him a strong bet to go over. Bet on O'Sullivan to rack up the possessions and play a pivotal role in North Melbourne Kangaroos' midfield battle this Sunday.

George Wardlaw (North Melbourne) Over 13.5 Disposals (-435)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to AFL betting, George Wardlaw is the man to watch this weekend. Wardlaw's recent form is red hot, especially on the road where he's been an absolute ball magnet. Averaging a solid 16.8 disposals in his last five away games, he's been a crucial link in North Melbourne's midfield. What's more impressive is his consistency, boasting a stellar 100% hit rate in meeting or exceeding his disposal line in the last six away matches. Facing a Port Adelaide side where he averages 20 disposals in their encounters, Wardlaw is primed to shine at Adelaide Oval. With a model predicting him to hit 19.7 disposals, Wardlaw's solid recent form and historical performance against the Power make the Over 13.5 disposals a tantalizing bet with a high probability of paying off.

Mitch Georgiades (Port Adelaide) Over 1.5 Goals (-435)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Mitch Georgiades' recent form at home, it's clear he's a genuine scoring threat. Averaging 2.8 goals in his last 5 home games, he's been a shining light for Port Adelaide's forward line. With an impressive average of 7 shots at goal per game, he's not afraid to back himself in front of the big sticks. Facing North Melbourne, a team he's had success against in the past, averaging 2 goals per game in their recent matchups, Georgiades seems primed to continue his scoring streak. His ability to take marks inside 50 and be involved in the scoring chain further solidifies his potential to snag goals. Although he might have had a slight dip in goal accuracy lately, hovering around 39%, his volume of shots and scoring involvements suggest he's due for a bag. Considering the model prediction of 2.5 goals, there's a strong case for backing Georgiades to go over 1.5 goals in this matchup at Adelaide Oval.

Willem Drew (Port Adelaide) Over 14.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Willem Drew, the unsung hero of the Port Adelaide Power, is primed to shine in front of the home crowd at Adelaide Oval. Over his last five home games, Drew has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 16.8 disposals per game. His recent form against North Melbourne has been even more impressive, boasting an average of 17 disposals in their encounters. Drew's ability to find the footy in contested situations, coupled with his excellent disposalefficiency of 69.7%, makes him a reliable ball carrier. With a current hit streak of 5 at home and an overall hit rate of 10/11, Drew is in the form of his life. Backing him to surpass 14.5 disposals against the Kangaroos is a smart move, given his consistent performance and knack for impacting games when it matters most.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
1
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult
05 Jul 26 Head to Head Port Adelaide Power ✓ HIT

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power in the AFL. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Sunday 5 July 2026 at Adelaide Oval. The model has generated 8 game picks and 15 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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