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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Todd Marshall is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 60%, for a model edge of +15.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 25, 11:39PM UTC
AFL

Todd Marshall

Port Adelaide

+15.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -149 (1.67)
+15.7% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 6:15AM
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Model Probability
75.5%
Implied Probability
59.9%
Model Edge
+15.7%
Predicted Value
1.0 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals75.5%59.9%1.32+15.7%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Todd Marshall (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Goals (-149)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Todd Marshall's recent form, the numbers paint a compelling picture for betting on him to snag over 0.5 goals in the upcoming clash against Hawthorn. Despite a modest average of 0.2 goals in his last five games, Marshall has shown consistency in getting shots on goal, with an average of 1.8 shots per game. His goal accuracy may be at 5.0%, but with an upward trend against Hawthorn specifically, averaging 2 goals per game in their last five encounters, the odds are in his favor. Marshall's involvement in Port Adelaide's forward line is evident through his average of 1.2 marks inside 50 and 3.2 score involvements in away games. Although he's been slightly off target recently, his overall hit rate and the historical matchup trends suggest he's due for a breakout. With his ability to impact the scoreboard and the team's reliance on him, backing Marshall to kick through the big sticks is a smart play for this showdown at Marvel Stadium.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.4avg goals L5
Away0.2vs Brisbane Lions1.6Season best5
O 0.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 1 · hi 5 · lo 0
1511100001

Todd Marshall has gone over 0.5 goals in 2 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.4 goals, best 5).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -149 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Todd Marshall (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Todd Marshall is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.7% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 18 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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