Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Todd Marshall is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 76%, implied 60%, edge +15.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 15, 5:08AM UTC
AFL

Todd Marshall

Port Adelaide

+15.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -149 (1.67) · $100→$167
+15.7% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
1.0 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 75.5% · the book's price implies 59.9% · gap +15.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals75.5%59.9%1.32+15.7%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Todd Marshall (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Goals (-149)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Todd Marshall's recent form, the numbers paint a compelling picture for betting on him to snag over 0.5 goals in the upcoming clash against Hawthorn. Despite a modest average of 0.2 goals in his last five games, Marshall has shown consistency in getting shots on goal, with an average of 1.8 shots per game. His goal accuracy may be at 5.0%, but with an upward trend against Hawthorn specifically, averaging 2 goals per game in their last five encounters, the odds are in his favor. Marshall's involvement in Port Adelaide's forward line is evident through his average of 1.2 marks inside 50 and 3.2 score involvements in away games. Although he's been slightly off target recently, his overall hit rate and the historical matchup trends suggest he's due for a breakout. With his ability to impact the scoreboard and the team's reliance on him, backing Marshall to kick through the big sticks is a smart play for this showdown at Marvel Stadium.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Todd Marshall averaged 9.1 disposals, 1.1 goals and 4.8 marks per game across 19 games in 2024.

9.1
Disposals
1.1
Goals
4.8
Marks
1.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Hawthorn), Todd Marshall recorded 5 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Hawthorn5123
10 Aug 24Melbourne8021
14 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS0001
6 Jul 24Western Bulldogs15061
30 Jun 24St Kilda7050
22 Jun 24Brisbane Lions9151
16 Jun 24GWS GIANTS8133
30 May 24Carlton6142
25 May 24North Melbourne135112
19 May 24Hawthorn13171
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Todd Marshall (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Todd Marshall is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.7% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 18 April at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.