Joe Berry (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Goals (-116)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Joe Berry's away form is doing a lot of heavy lifting here. In his last five away games he's averaging 0.6 goals — exactly matching the model's projection — with 1.4 shots at goal and a 4/7 hit rate over the past seven away fixtures. That's a meaningful sample suggesting he finds the big sticks more consistently when travelling, and the model sits right on the line at 0.6, implying a genuine chance of clearing it.
The concern is context. His overall L5 average drops sharply to just 0.2 goals, his goal accuracy away sits at a modest 18.3%, and he's averaging only 0.2 marks inside 50. Against Essendon specifically as an away side he's averaging zero goals. The model edge is a thin 0.9% against a 53.8% implied probability, so this is a marginal play at best. Worth a small unit given the away-game pattern, but size accordingly.