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The latest Bet Better model pick for Karl Amon is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 85 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 85%, implied 66%, edge +19.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 7:33AM UTC
AFL

Karl Amon

Hawthorn

+19.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -196 (1.51) · $100→$151
+19.0% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
85 in 100
Predicted
22.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 85.2% · the book's price implies 66.2% · gap +19.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals85.2%—66.2%1.17+19.0%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games1/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Karl Amon Over 16.5 Disposals (-196)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

At Optus Stadium, Karl Amon is set to face the Fremantle Dockers, and our numbers think he has a good chance to shine. He's been a strong performer lately, and with a rating showing he typically gets more disposals than usual, this looks promising. One thing to keep in mind is that both teams are closely matched, so it's possible Amon could face tough competition. Still, betting on him to get over 16.5 disposals seems like a solid choice based on recent form. Let's see if he can keep up his good play!

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Karl Amon averaged 22.1 disposals, 0.2 goals and 5.7 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

22.1
Disposals
0.2
Goals
5.7
Marks
2.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Karl Amon has cleared 11.5 disposals in 100% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.5100%
o12.590%
o14.570%
o16.570%
o18.550%
o20.550%
o22.540%
o24.510%
o26.510%
o28.50%
o30.50%
o32.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Karl Amon is averaging 15.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

15.6
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Karl Amon recorded 21 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide21032
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs22035
24 Aug 24North Melbourne14021
18 Aug 24Richmond26181
11 Aug 24Carlton21082
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS30094
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows21030
20 Jul 24Collingwood22042
13 Jul 24Fremantle21051
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats20042
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals — — — Pending
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Karl Amon (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Karl Amon is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.0% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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