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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Karl Amon is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 75%, versus the book's implied 69%, for a model edge of +6.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 9:29PM UTC
AFL

Karl Amon

Hawthorn

+6.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 20.5 -222 (1.45) · $100→$145
+6.3% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Fri 7 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
75.2%
Implied Probability
69.0%
Model Edge
+6.3%
Predicted Value
23.9 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.2%69.0%1.33+6.3%

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AI Analysis

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Karl Amon (Hawthorn) Over 20.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to finding value in the disposals market, Karl Amon stands out like a shining star under the Gabba lights. In his last five away games, Amon has been a midfield maestro, averaging a whopping 23.8 disposals. Facing off against the Brisbane Lions, a team he's historically dominated with an average of 25 disposals in their last five encounters, the stage is set for Amon to feast on the pill once again. With a solid contested possession average of 4.2 and an impressive disposal efficiency of 79.4%, Amon's ability to find space, penetrate defenses, and link up play makes him a prime candidate to surpass the 20.5 disposals line. Backing Amon to eclipse this mark is not just a punt; it's a calculated move based on his recent form and historical performance against the Lions.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Karl Amon averaged 22.1 disposals, 0.2 goals and 5.7 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

22.1
Disposals
0.2
Goals
5.7
Marks
2.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Karl Amon recorded 21 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide21032
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs22035
24 Aug 24North Melbourne14021
18 Aug 24Richmond26181
11 Aug 24Carlton21082
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS30094
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows21030
20 Jul 24Collingwood22042
13 Jul 24Fremantle21051
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats20042
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 16.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 15.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Karl Amon (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Karl Amon is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.3% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions on Friday 7 August at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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