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AFL

Karl Amon

Hawthorn

Value call

Karl Amon (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: over 15.5 disposals that pays $144 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
22.2 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 74.3% · before adjusting for past results 89.0% · the book's price implies 69.4% · gap +4.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST
Karl Amon
over 15.5 disposals
Disposals Over 15.5 -227 (1.44) · $100→$144
Value call
HIGHWins about 74 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.40 Odds-227
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Karl Amon is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 74%, the price says 69%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 12, 11:58PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 15°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals89.0%74.3%69.4%1.35+19.6%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Karl Amon Over 15.5 Disposals (-227)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

Karl Amon has been doing a solid job lately, and he's in a good spot against the Brisbane Lions. They've been on fire, winning nine out of their last ten games and averaging nearly 50 points before half-time in their last twelve matches. This sets up a fast-paced game, which could give Amon plenty of chances to get his hands on the ball. The bet is for Amon to get over 15.5 disposals. The Lions can be tough, but Amon has shown he can step up, especially in high-energy games. One risk is that the Hawks and Lions are pretty close in skill, so it might be a tight game. Still, with Amon's recent form, this bet looks promising.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Karl Amon averaged 22.1 disposals, 0.2 goals and 5.7 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

22.1
Disposals
0.2
Goals
5.7
Marks
2.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Karl Amon recorded 21 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide21032
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs22035
24 Aug 24North Melbourne14021
18 Aug 24Richmond26181
11 Aug 24Carlton21082
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS30094
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows21030
20 Jul 24Collingwood22042
13 Jul 24Fremantle21051
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats20042
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 15.5 Over -227 ✗ MISS
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 14.5 Over -333 ✗ MISS
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 13.5 Over -500 ✗ MISS
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Karl Amon (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Karl Amon is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.6% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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