Karl Amon (Hawthorn) Over 15.5 Disposals (-227)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Karl Amon is a compelling play here at home, where his numbers genuinely separate from his overall averages. His L5 home disposal average sits at 22.4 — nearly eight touches clear of the 15.5 line — and he's cleared this mark in 16 of his last 20 home games, an 80% hit rate that underpins the model's 69.4% implied probability with room to spare. The model projects 18.5 disposals against a line of 15.5, generating a 1.8% edge, and the matchup sharpens things further: Amon averages 25.2 disposals across his last five against Brisbane, peaking at 26 in home fixtures specifically. His efficiency at home is also clean — 80% disposal efficiency and 480 metres gained per game suggest he's not just accumulating, he's moving the ball with purpose. At $1.44, this is a line the data says he beats comfortably more often than not.