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Model picks & player props
Collingwood Magpies
VS
Gold Coast Suns

Collingwood Magpies vs Gold Coast Suns Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 9:03PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

AFL
People First Stadium, Gold Coast
Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul 2026, 6:15AM
20
Game markets graded
12
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Under 173.5 Total Points -115

The model graded 32 markets for Collingwood Magpies vs Gold Coast Suns (AFL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $187 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 4 Jul 2026, 6:15AM at People First Stadium.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win70.4%
The price says53.5%
Best price-115
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Points Under 173.5 High70% chance -115
Total Points High68% chance
Spread High66% chance
Spread High65% chance
Spread High63% chance
Moneyline Lean50% chance
Goals × 6 props Highup to 91%
Disposals × 6 props Highup to 77%
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
This game is done — from the model’s graded calls on this game
Collingwood Magpies · $100 returned $231

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Points
Under
171.5
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Gold Coast SunsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Gold Coast SunsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Gold Coast SunsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Collingwood MagpiesMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Magpies

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Suns

Player availability is not tracked for AFL on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Collingwood Magpies vs Gold Coast Suns: Wet or windy conditions tend to lower AFL scoring, though live conditions for this exact fixture aren't wired in here yet, and player availability isn't tracked for AFL on this page.
FactorThis fixture
Match conditionsWet weather slows AFL scoring and lifts the value of contested-ball sides, but live per-fixture conditions aren't joined to this page yet.

General rule: wet weather lowers AFL scoring and rewards contested-ball and defensive sides, while a late out among key forwards or midfielders reshapes a team's scoring spread.

Live per-fixture AFL conditions aren't joined to this page yet — the note above is a general conditions rule, not this exact game's forecast.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Player props

GOOD PRICE in green
PlayerTeamStat
Bailey Humphrey Gold Coast SUNS Goals
Matt Rowell Gold Coast SUNS Disposals
Ethan Read Gold Coast SUNS Goals
Tim Membrey Collingwood Goals
Christian Petracca Gold Coast SUNS Goals

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Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns — what the model found

Our model graded 32 betting markets for Collingwood Magpies at Gold Coast Suns — 20 on the game itself and 12 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
12
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 32 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

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Collingwood Magpies vs Gold Coast Suns — recent results

Gold Coast Suns have won 2 of their last 5 games; Collingwood Magpies have won 0 of their last 0.

Gold Coast Suns — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
W103–80STKAway
L53–95BLAway
W79–77GWSAway
L105–114MELBHome
L97–110CARLAway

Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns — model preview

Unlock potential winning bets for Gold Coast Suns playing Collingwood Magpies. Includes analysis on key players like Ethan Read. Analysis includes AFL predictions, AFL game picks, betting preview, Gold Coast Suns vs Collingwood Magpies stats and odds.

Ethan Read (Gold Coast SUNS) Over 0.5 Goals (-156)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at young gun Ethan Read's recent form, the stats paint an intriguing picture for this weekend's clash. Despite averaging just 0.4 goals per game over his last five matches, his hunger for goals is evident, with an average of 1.8 shots on goal and 1.2 marks inside 50 in his last five home games. Against Collingwood, he's been even more lethal, bagging an average of 1 goal in their last five face-offs. With a solid 10.0% goal accuracy at home and a clear knack for being involved in the Suns' scoring plays, Read seems poised to capitalize on his opportunities. At decimal odds of 1.64 to score over 0.5 goals, the value here is undeniable. Bet confidently on Ethan Read to snag a goal and make an impact for the Gold Coast Suns this weekend at People First Stadium.

🔒 The other 5 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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Cashed picks for this matchup

From the public log
DateMarketPickResult
04 Jul 26 Moneyline Collingwood Magpies ✓ HIT

Every pick — wins and losses — is logged on the public record.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Collingwood Magpies vs Gold Coast Suns in the AFL. You may also see this matchup written as Magpies vs Suns, or as Suns vs Magpies. The most recent game between them was Saturday 4 July 2026 at People First Stadium. The model has generated 20 game picks and 12 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your AFL betting strategy for this matchup.

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