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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mabior Chol is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 67%, the price says 77%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 11:45AM UTC
AFL

Mabior Chol

Hawthorn

Value call

Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: Goals Over 0.5 that pays $130 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -333 (1.30) · $100→$130
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
67 in 100
Predicted
1.5 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 67.0% · before adjusting for past results 79.0% · the book's price implies 76.9% · gap -9.9%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals79.0%67.0%76.9%1.49+2.1%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Mabior Chol Over 0.5 Goals (-333)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For the Hawks to score over 0.5 goals from Mabior Chol tonight, he just needs to find the net once, which feels very doable. Our numbers show he's a strong favorite to score, especially playing at the MCG where the crowd usually pumps up the energy. While Chol hasn't been scoring much lately, he does have chances and the setup is good for him. The biggest risk is that both teams are closely matched, so it could be a tough game. Still, with the way our numbers rate this, it seems likely he'll get that goal tonight.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Mabior Chol averaged 9.3 disposals, 1.6 goals and 3.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

9.3
Disposals
1.6
Goals
3.7
Marks
2.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Mabior Chol recorded 7 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide7143
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs6020
24 Aug 24North Melbourne8331
18 Aug 24Richmond14194
11 Aug 24Carlton5131
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS7222
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows17281
20 Jul 24Collingwood14212
13 Jul 24Fremantle8134
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats8253
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mabior Chol is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.1% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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