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AFL

Mabior Chol

Hawthorn

Value call

Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: over 0.5 goals that pays $130 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
80 in 100
Predicted
1.9 goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 80.5% · before adjusting for past results 91.2% · the book's price implies 76.9% · gap +3.6%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST
Mabior Chol
over 0.5 goals
Goals Over 0.5 -333 (1.30) · $100→$130
Value call
HIGHWins about 80 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$13.00 Odds-333
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Mabior Chol is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 80 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 80%, the price says 77%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 5:50PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals91.2%80.5%76.9%1.24+14.3%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Mabior Chol Over 0.5 Goals (-333)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For this bet to win, Mabior Chol needs to score at least one goal tonight. The Brisbane Lions have been on fire lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games and averaging almost 50 points before half-time in their last 12 matches. That kind of form suggests they'll be putting plenty of pressure on the Hawthorn Hawks' defense, which is great news for Chol's chances to find the back of the net. One thing to keep in mind is that the Hawks are also a tough competitor. Still, given how well the Lions have been playing, especially with their strong scoring, Chol should get a solid opportunity to score. It's not a guaranteed win, but the signs point in the right direction for this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Mabior Chol averaged 9.3 disposals, 1.6 goals and 3.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

9.3
Disposals
1.6
Goals
3.7
Marks
2.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Mabior Chol recorded 7 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide7143
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs6020
24 Aug 24North Melbourne8331
18 Aug 24Richmond14194
11 Aug 24Carlton5131
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS7222
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows17281
20 Jul 24Collingwood14212
13 Jul 24Fremantle8134
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats8253
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
15 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Marks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mabior Chol is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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