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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mabior Chol is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 91 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 91%, implied 77%, edge +14.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 3:08AM UTC
AFL

Mabior Chol

Hawthorn

+14.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -333 (1.30) · $100→$130
+14.3% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
91 in 100
Predicted
1.9 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 91.2% · the book's price implies 76.9% · gap +14.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals91.2%—76.9%1.10+14.3%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games1/10

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Mabior Chol Over 0.5 Goals (-333)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For this bet to win, Mabior Chol needs to score at least one goal tonight. The Brisbane Lions have been on fire lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games and averaging almost 50 points before half-time in their last 12 matches. That kind of form suggests they'll be putting plenty of pressure on the Hawthorn Hawks' defense, which is great news for Chol's chances to find the back of the net. One thing to keep in mind is that the Hawks are also a tough competitor. Still, given how well the Lions have been playing, especially with their strong scoring, Chol should get a solid opportunity to score. It's not a guaranteed win, but the signs point in the right direction for this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Mabior Chol's lines for Sat 19 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Goals 0.5

Mabior Chol's goals line is 0.5.

Season averages (2024)

Mabior Chol averaged 9.3 disposals, 1.6 goals and 3.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

9.3
Disposals
1.6
Goals
3.7
Marks
2.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Mabior Chol has cleared 9.5 disposals in 40% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.540%
o10.540%
o11.530%
o12.530%
o13.530%
o14.530%
o15.530%
o16.520%
o17.510%
o18.510%

Home / away and opponent splits

Mabior Chol is averaging 9.6 disposals per game over his last 5 and 13.2 in home games.

9.6
Disp · Overall
13.2
Disp · Home
0.8
Goals · Overall
2.4
Goals · Home

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Mabior Chol recorded 7 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide7143
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs6020
24 Aug 24North Melbourne8331
18 Aug 24Richmond14194
11 Aug 24Carlton5131
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS7222
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows17281
20 Jul 24Collingwood14212
13 Jul 24Fremantle8134
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats8253
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
15 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Essendon Bombers @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Marks — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mabior Chol is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +14.3% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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