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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mabior Chol is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 75 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 75%, implied 55%, edge +19.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 6:01AM UTC
AFL

Mabior Chol

Hawthorn

+19.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -123 (1.81) · $100→$181
+19.6% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 3 Sep, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 12°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
11.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 74.9% · the book's price implies 55.2% · gap +19.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.9%—55.2%1.34+19.6%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks: Mabior Chol Over 9.5 Disposals (-123)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mabior Chol has been really strong lately, showing he can rack up disposals like it's no big deal. With a high winning percentage in contests at 66.65, he seems to be getting his hands on the ball more often than most players. This gives him a solid chance to go over 9.5 disposals against Hawthorn. The risk here is that both teams are closely matched, which can sometimes mean fewer scoring chances. Still, with Chol's recent performance and the way he's been playing, he looks ready to hit that mark. So, taking the bet on him to go over 9.5 disposals seems like a smart move.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 5(60%)

Season averages (2024)

Mabior Chol averaged 9.3 disposals, 1.6 goals and 3.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

9.3
Disposals
1.6
Goals
3.7
Marks
2.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Mabior Chol has cleared 9.5 disposals in 40% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.540%
o10.540%
o11.530%
o12.530%
o13.530%
o14.530%
o15.530%

Home / away and opponent splits

Mabior Chol is averaging 10.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

10.4
Disp · Overall
1.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Mabior Chol recorded 7 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide7143
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs6020
24 Aug 24North Melbourne8331
18 Aug 24Richmond14194
11 Aug 24Carlton5131
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS7222
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows17281
20 Jul 24Collingwood14212
13 Jul 24Fremantle8134
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats8253
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 9.5 Over -286 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Disposals 10.5 Over -172 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ West Coast Eagles Goals 1.5 Over -161 ✗ MISS
15 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals — — — Pending
15 Aug 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals — — — Pending
07 Aug 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Brisbane Lions Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mabior Chol is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.6% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 3 September at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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