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The latest Bet Better model pick for Mabior Chol is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 92%, versus the book's implied 86%, for a model edge of +6.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
AFL

Mabior Chol

Hawthorn

+6.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -625 (1.16)
+6.2% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 11 Jul, 9:35AM
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Model Probability
92.4%
Implied Probability
86.2%
Model Edge
+6.2%
Predicted Value
1.6 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals92.4%86.2%1.08+6.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games5/10

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AI Analysis

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Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) Over 0.5 Goals (-625)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mabior Chol is poised to make waves in the upcoming clash against Carlton at the MCG. Over his last five away games, Chol has been a consistent threat in front of goal, averaging 1.6 goals per match. His sharpshooting accuracy of 55.0% ensures he capitalizes on his opportunities, with 3.2 shots at goal per game. Chol's ability to impact the scoreboard is undeniable, as evidenced by his average of 6.2 score involvements and 2 marks inside 50 in away fixtures. Facing Carlton, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 2 goals in their last five encounters, Chol is in a prime position to snag another goal. With his current form showing a perfect hit rate in away games and an overall streak of 6 goals in 6 matches, backing Chol to score over 0.5 goals is a smart bet with a high probability of hitting pay dirt.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
2.6avg goals L5
Away1.6vs Richmond2Season best4
O 0.590%
O 1.570%
O 2.520%
O 3.510%
O 4.510%
Game log vs line (O 2.5)avg 1.5 · hi 3 · lo 0
2122211301

Mabior Chol has gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 2.6 goals, best 4).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Carlton Blues Goals 0.5 Over -625 ✗ MISS
11 Apr 26 Western Bulldogs @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -556 ✗ MISS
06 Apr 26 Geelong Cats @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals 0.5 Over -455 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Mabior Chol (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mabior Chol is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.2% on this pick. Their next game is Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues on Saturday 11 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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