Angus Anderson (Collingwood) Over 0.5 Goals (-137)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Angus Anderson to kick at least one goal against Hawthorn looks a well-supported play when you dig into the away-game numbers. His L5 away average of 1.2 goals sits comfortably above this 0.5 line, and he's converting at 53.3% accuracy from roughly two shots at goal per away game — a meaningful efficiency figure. The clincher is the hit rate: he's cleared this line in six of his last seven away games, and the model projects exactly one goal with an 11.8% edge over the implied 57.8% probability baked into the $1.73 price.
The overall L5 numbers look softer (0.6 goals, 25% accuracy), but that's dragged down by home appearances where his inside-50 involvement drops. Away from home he averages 2.2 inside-50s and 4.8 score involvements — enough opportunity to get on the board. Against Hawthorn specifically he averages one goal from his last five meetings. Solid edge, worth backing.